FLORIDA

1990 FL-11 election

In 1990, future Florida Senator Bill Nelson retired from the House to unsuccessfully run for governor. The race to replace him saw attorney Jim Bacchus receive the Democratic nod, and

Bacchus was re-elected in 1992 before retiring in 1994.

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

2018 FL-26 election

As of 2025, this is the last time this district has elected a Democrat.

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

2022 FL-11 Republican primary

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

2024 FL-07 election

As Florida looks at gerrymandering their maps even more, I'd like to highlight one of the victims of their original gerrymander in 2022: FL-07. Prior to redistricting, FL-07 was represented by moderate Democrat Stephanie Murphy, who flipped the seat back in 2016. Murphy announced her retirement prior to the redraw, but Democrats still could've held the competitive district had it remained roughly the same. However, when Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) forced through his preferred maps, the district lost its portion of Orange County and gained parts of the much redder Volusia County, going from Biden +10% to Trump +6% in the process*.

During the first congressional elections of the new decade in 2022, DeSantis' gerrymander proved brutally effective, with Cory Mills (R) winning the open seat by 17 points. In 2024, amid Florida's lurch to the right, Mills once again won re-election, defeating businesswoman Jennifer Adams by a little over 13%. Adams had tried to capitalize on Mills' controversial remarks and vote against FEMA funding, but it wasn't enough to overcome Mills' serious cash advantage and the red-leaning nature of the district, which concurrently voted for Trump by 12.5 points.

Going into 2026, Mills remains favored even without a redraw, but he could be more vulnerable than his prior elections suggest. Mills has never been a particularly strong candidate, and since the election, he has been subject to numerous allegations, from not paying rent in DC to assaulting one girlfriend and threatening another with revenge porn. These scandals, combined with the targeting of Mills' seat by the DCCC, mean Mills and Florida Republicans could be given a serious run for their money, although as I said before, Mills remains favored (for now).

*I would highly recommend checking MCI Maps out, as they make a ton of nice maps and have good analysis as well.

2025 FL-01 Special election

As of 2025, this remains the best Democratic performance in the district since Earl Hutto (D) was last re-elected in 1992. Additionally, this was the closest election in the district since 1992.

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

2026 hd-87 Special election

Notably, this district includes Donald Trump's residence in Mar-a-Lago.

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

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