Ohio

1992 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BY TOWNSHIP

Note about the data: There were a significant amount of errors that required correction (such as '81' being encoded as '8100'), and while I did my best to correct said errors, the data still may not be 100% accurate. Additionally, the 3-way nature of the race required that margins for each township be calculated by hand, and, despite my best efforts, I cannot guarantee that those calculations are error-free.

1992 marked the first presidential election since the end of the Cold War, and saw incumbent George H.W. Bush running for a second term against Arkansas' youthful governor Bill Clinton (D) and businessman Ross Perot (I). While Bush had been elected in a landslide 4 years prior, a combination of a recession and a broken promise not to raise taxes meant he was in serious trouble going into his re-election bid, especially against the charismatic Clinton and Perot's strong independent run. As the campaign ramped up, Ohio, a bellwether that had voted for every election winner since 1960, emerged once more as a critical battleground. Unlike the fellow bellwether-state of Florida, Ohio maintained their status on election day, with Clinton narrowly winning Ohio's 21 electoral votes as part of his nationwide victory.

Clinton's victory was fueled by his strength in the industrial regions of northeast Ohio, the shore of Lake Erie, urban areas, and Appalachia, while Bush did best in conservative rural and suburban areas in central and western Ohio (including among the Amish population in Holmes County). Perot, meanwhile, got an impressive 21% of the vote and saw support all across the state, doing best in rural areas out west and working class areas in the east*. Ohio, like the rest of the nation, voted to re-elect Clinton (D) in 1996, and maintained their bellwether status until 2020. As of 2025, this is the last time Coshocton County voted for a Democratic presidential candidate and the last time Franklin County voted for a Republican.

*It is important to note that Perot did not cost Bush the election, as exit polls showed Perot drew support almost evenly from Clinton and Bush.

2008 OH-16 election

With his victory, Boccieri became the first Democrat to represent the district in 58 years. Boccieri ran for re-election, but his support for Obama's policies cost him his seat amidst the 2010 red wave.

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

2008 OH-18 election

This is the last time Democrats won OH-18, as Space was defeated in 2010 and the district was dismantled in redistricting the following year after Ohio lost seats in the House of Representatives.

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

2022 Oh-09 election

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

2024 OH-06 Special election

While 2024 ultimately proved to be a bad year for Democrats, there were some reasons for the party to be optimistic going into November. One such reason was the June 11th special election for Ohio's 6th district, held due to then-Representative Bill Johnson (R) resigning to become president of Youngstown State University. Although the district had been friendly territory for Democrats during the first decade of the 21st century, it has swung sharply to the right in the years since. For instance, the district went from voting for Obama (D) by 3% in 2012 to voting for Donald Trump (R) by almost 25% in 2016. As such, the Republican nominee, State Senator Michael Rulli, was expected to win an easy victory over his opponent, Michael Kripchack (D).

However, as the night unfolded, it became clear the blowout Republicans had come to expect from OH-06 was not going to materialize. Kripchack opened with a commanding lead, earning 61% of the early vote. Yet, as election day votes came in, Rulli whittled away Kripchack's lead until he eventually overtook him. While Rulli's final margin was 9.3%, it was a farcry from the landslides other Republicans had achieved in the district. Notably, the portion of Tuscarawas County in the district voted for Kripchack, despite it's conservative lean.

However, while Kripchack's performance was impressive, it was an exception rather than a sign of a new rule. Indeed, voter turnout was incredibly low, with those who did vote being more favorable to Democrats. Later in November, when turnout was far higher, Rulli defeated Kripchack by 33% as the district reverted to its conservative nature. Nevertheless, as of 2025, this is the best Democratic performance in OH-06 since 2012.

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