Since 2000, New York state has seen large population growth in terms of raw numbers. However, compared to the rest of the country (Which grew by 17.77% over the same time frame), New York has been lagging behind. New York City and the surrounding suburbs have continued to grow (albeit at a somewhat slow rate, especially NYC), as has the lower Hudson Valley, the Albany metro, and suburbs around other upstate cities. However, like many other parts of the country, rural areas in upstate New York have seen significant declines over the past two decades (the overall decline is likely higher due to overcounts in the 2020 Census). The overall trends across the state during the first 20 years of the 21st century have been driven by low fertility and aging populations, with the state expected to lose population within the coming decades if these trends are not reversed.
While David Brat's performance in 2014 was arguably the most shocking primary upset thus far this century, it wasn't the most prominent*. That (arguably) belongs to the 2018 Democratic primary in New York's 14th congressional district, which saw ten-term incumbent Joe Crowley, the No. 4 House Democrat and a potential successor to Nancy Pelosi, soundly defeated by progressive political newcomer Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Throughout the campaign, Crowley was seen as the favorite to win, largely due to Crowley's massive fundraising advantage that allowed him to outspend Ocasio-Cortez 18-1. However, Ocasio-Cortez was able to capitalize on a tech-savvy campaign and high profile endorsements such as Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA) or gubernatorial candidate Cynthia Nixon. Additionally, Ocasio-Cortez's campaign mobilization efforts paid off, generating a surge in youth turnout and allowing her to win whiter (but young and progressive) areas of Queens which Crowley was expected to win. Indeed, Crowley suffered from much the same problem Cantor did, with voters feeling like he "was interested more in Washington politics and less about his neighborhoods", to quote NYC Councilman Bob Holden. Both of these, combined with her high support in Latino areas and "change" being a defining theme of the 2018 NY Democratic primaries, allowed Ocasio-Cortez to topple Crowley. Following the primary, Ocasio-Cortez was easily elected to Congress, becoming the youngest woman elected (as of 2024), and won re-election by large margins in 2020, 2022, and 2024.
*To clarify, AOC is a far more recognizable figure than Brat, as even those not invested in politics have likely heard of her while Brat is known only amongst political nerds.
As of 2025, this marks the last time Democrats won NY-11.
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Mamdani served in the state assembly until being elected mayor of New York City in 2025.
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Despite his loss, Louis Puliafito (R) vastly improved on Donald Trump's performance in the concurrent presidential election, losing by 15.3% compared to Trump's 65.9% loss in the district.
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The precinct data and shapefiles come from Benjamin J. Rosenblatt (@BenJ_Rosenblatt on Twitter), whose website I highly recommend for those interested in NY elections.
Further Analysis Coming Soon!
The precinct data and shapefiles come from Benjamin J. Rosenblatt (@BenJ_Rosenblatt on Twitter), whose website I highly recommend for those interested in NY elections.
Further Analysis Coming Soon!
The precinct data and shapefiles come from Benjamin J. Rosenblatt (@BenJ_Rosenblatt on Twitter), whose website I highly recommend for those interested in NY elections.
Further Analysis Coming Soon!
In 2022, voters in NY-19 narrowly elected Marc Molinaro (R) over Josh Riley (D) as part of the localized "red wave" in New York. Unlike other districts in New York, the partisanship of the 19th remained largely unchanged following 2024 redistricting, giving Molinaro (R) a solid shot at retaining one of the most competitive seats in the House. Indeed, as highlighted by Split Ticket's WAR model, the fundamentals of the race pointed to a Molinaro victory. However, after a brutal slugfest and millions of dollars in outside investment, it was Riley (D) who emerged victorious in their rematch in 2024. Riley was likely boosted by his bipartisan rhetoric on immigration, which stood in contrast to Molinaro's stark support for Trump's anti-migration platform (despite Molinaro's reputation as a moderate). Harris' 1.8% margin of victory in the district also likely helped, although it is worth noting Riley outran Harris by .4%.
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*Most counties in New York have a local legislature akin to a county board.
Following the election, Watts became the first woman appointed to chair the county legislature.
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