maine

1972 US senate election

Going into 2026, Democrats have a decent chance at unseating Susan Collins (R), the only Republican to represent a Harris-won state. Yet, despite Maine's blue lean, the last time a Democrat both won and flipped this seat* was in 1972. Incumbent Margaret Chase Smith (R), a popular bipartisan best known for her Declaration of Conscience against Joe McCarthy (R-WI) and the House Un-American Activities Committee during the 2nd Red Scare, ran for re-election to a fifth term. However, while prior runs had seen her win easily, the “Lady from Maine” was not as strong this time around. Her intense support of the increasingly unpopular Vietnam War only hurt her standing with voters, especially after the fiasco meeting with students at Colby College, where Smith repeated her support for the Vietnam War before saying "No" when asked if U.S. troops were stationed in Laos. When former Marine Everett Carson told her he'd been sent into Laos as part of search and destroy missions, Smith didn't respond and quickly left, making her look uninformed. Smith received a further blow when the powerful women's movement endorsed her challenger, Congressman William Hathaway (D). In the end, Smith's political missteps and the opposition against her proved too much to overcome, as despite Richard Nixon's landslide win in the concurrent presidential election, Smith lost re-election in an upset to Hathaway. However, unlike Smith, Hathaway did not earn a "nearlegendary [sic] standing" over his term, as he lost his bid for re-election in 1978 by 22.65 points (No Senator has lost by that much in the years since, but a few have come close).

*The last time a Democrat won a Senate seat in Maine was in 1988, although Independent Angus King, who has served since 2013, caucuses with the Democrats.

1992 presidential election

1992 proved to be a pivotal realignment election, as it was when many of today's blue states became reliably (at least relatively) Democratic. One such state was Maine, where Bill Clinton managed to turn Michael Dukakis' 12% loss four years earlier into an 8% victory. However, in the end, Clinton's closest rival in the state hadn't been incumbent George H.W. Bush (R), who narrowly came in third. Rather, it was independent businessman Ross Perot who placed in second, narrowly edging Bush out by 316 votes despite decisively coming in third place nationwide. Perot's support came from rural areas in central Maine and along a few coastal towns. Clinton was also competitive in those regions but put up stronger performances in northern & coastal Maine, as well as Portland. Bush, meanwhile, saw significant support along the southern coasts and southern Aroostook County, with most of the towns he won in said regions. As of the 2024 election, this is the last time a third party won any counties in Maine, the last time a third party placed second and the Republicans third, and the last time a Democrat received less than 45% of the vote. Additionally, Perot's 4.55% loss in ME-02 was the closest he came to winning an electoral vote.

1994 ME-02 Democratic primary

Notably, both John Baldacci and Janet Mills would later serve as Maine's governor.

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

1994 ME-02 election

This was one of three seats Democrats gained in the 1994 Republican Revolution.

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

2014 Me-02 election

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

2016 SD-2 election

Further Analysis Coming Soon!

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