North Carolina

2004 Presidential Election

While today North Carolina is one of seven key swing states, there was a brief time when the state was closer to being solid red than purple. Prior to 2008, North Carolina had last voted for a Democrat in 1976, with Republicans winning by large margins in both 1984 and 1988. While Bill Clinton (D) was competitive in the state, he nevertheless failed to return the state to the Democratic column.

Clinton's VP, Al Gore, fared even worse than Clinton's 5% loss in 1996, losing the state by almost 13% to George W. Bush (R). Going into 2004, the trend of Republican dominance on the federal level seemed poised to continue. While Democratic nominee John Kerry did choose John Edwards, North Carolina's Junior Senator, as his VP, Edwards' appeal was in his charismatic campaigning and his balancing contrast to Kerry in messaging style, not his ability to deliver North Carolina, or any other Southern state, to the Democratic column. Perhaps the most explicit sign Edwards' home state boost would be, at best, limited* was some analysts noting the distinct possibility he would've lost had he ran for re-election as a Senator. Thus, while it was clear the Kerry-Edwards ticket had a path to the White House, it seemed just as clear that such a path would not run through the Tar Heel State.

As campaigning for the general election ramped up in the fall, both Kerry and Edwards stopped appearing in the state once it became clear North Carolina would once again be voting Republican. Bush consistently lead every poll, often in the high single digits or low double digits, and political/news organizations all rated North Carolina as Republican favored (although there was variation between organizations on if it was 'Lean' or 'Safe' Republican). Ultimately, both the polls and predictions proved correct, as on election day Bush easily carried the state by 12.44%.

While Bush won by a nearly identical margin as four years prior, the geography of his win saw some not insignificant changes. Like in much of the South, Kerry lost ground in rural areas compared to Clinton and Gore, with seven rural counties flipping from Democratic to Republican. However, Republican gains in rural areas were largely canceled out by Democratic gains in urban ones, as Kerry was able to flip Mecklenburg County, home to Charlotte, and Guilford County, home to Greensboro. Additionally, Democrats were able to significantly cut into Republican margins in Wake, Buncombe, and Forsyth counties, home to Raleigh, Asheville, and Winston-Salem respectively. As a result, North Carolina was the only Southern state to swing left in 2004, with Bush seeing a 0.39% drop in his margin.

Following the election, North Carolina would see a rapid political shift in favor of Democrats. Of the five urban counties mentioned above, all would become safely Democratic as cities and suburbs shifted to the left, allowing Democrats to regain ground they had lost from rural areas shifting right. Indeed, the territory which had allowed Bush to carry the state by over 10% was the same which propelled Barack Obama (D) to a narrow victory in the state four years later. While Republicans have recovered, carrying the state in every election since 2008, the days of Republicans being all-but-guaranteed to win are over, as this is the last time North Carolina was not considered a swing state (and therefore not contested), as well as the last time it was decided by over 4%.

*I'm not trying to be polemical about Edwards' candidate quality, especially since it doesn't matter now. Rather, my point is Edwards wasn't chosen to make NC competitive.