November 30, 2019
Presumption is about as natural as breathing for people. We all think we know things as a fact that aren’t true at all. (I’m being presumptuous by saying “all” in that statement. 😊 In my lifetime, I’ve never known anyone who didn’t seem presumptuous at times, but it’s possible there are a few people somewhere who aren’t.)
You could define presumption as trusting in something to be true with little or no evidence, but I use the term more broadly as assuming something is true with greater confidence than the evidence warrants.
Sometimes we presume something is true that can’t be proven based on evidence and reasoning. It seems to be the best logical explanation to what we observe. Sometimes we presume something is true because it feels right—we’re “trusting our gut” or instincts. In either case, the presumption is highly uncertain.
Often we see a cause-and-effect relationship between events, presuming a connection simply because one followed the other. This can make people superstitious. An athlete wears a new brand of socks before a competition and when it turns out to be his or her best performance ever, they always wear that brand of socks there-after. This kind of presumption motivates people to read fortune cookies, follow horoscopes, consult psychics, and a host of other superstitions. But cause-and-effect presumption goes beyond superstitions. All people tend to presume one event caused another when they happen in close sequence. Sometimes one did cause the other, but sometimes the timing is just coincidence. Cause and effect relationships require validation.
Another form of presumption comes from trusting someone’s word. We like to believe things people say, especially if someone we trust says something that we want to be true. But human testimony is unreliable. Even credible people make mistakes. Memory is unreliable. It’s okay to accept someone’s word as likely true if they have proven to be credible, but testimony isn’t proof. It should be taken with an element of uncertainty.
Often our most extreme presumption is driven by an intense desire to be right such as in issues of religion, politics, and family. The rewards of being right and consequences of being wrong in these areas appear so extreme that it’s vital to be right. Yet, these are such complex arenas with so much uncertainty that our true confidence level should realistically be very low. We convince ourselves that we know a lot and proceed with confidence, but it’s a false confidence based on presumption.
Perhaps this presumption is necessary for psychological health. Most people just can’t deal with realistic uncertainty, and the scope of possibilities overwhelms our minds. Perhaps presumption plays a vital role in sociology, enabling humans to function in groups. Presumption helps societies establish norms, core values, and goals.
Everywhere I turn I see people being presumptuous. Religious people quickly credit events and circumstances to God, while self-assuredly believing they understand the holy writings of their religion and are following God’s leading in their lives. Atheists confidently dismiss evidence for God. Politicians proclaim boldly that their agenda will make life better for their voters, and their supporters arrogantly dismiss opponents as fools. Drivers tend to think they are the safest drivers on the road and anyone who doesn’t drive like them is an idiot.
A very common presumption I see comes when people judge the intentions of others. Someone does something we like and we assume good intentions, attributing positive character to them when in reality they might have ulterior motives. When people do things we don’t like, we presume to know exactly why they are doing it, even though the workings of their minds are complex and extremely uncertain.
Living with uncertainty requires a lot of self-control and mental/emotional strength, but accepting uncertainty and avoiding presumption can help us avoid conflict and interact with people more respectfully while making fewer mistakes.