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September, 2019
One thing I’ve learned with increasing certainty in life is that nearly everything is uncertain. People believe and claim to “know” so many contradictory “facts” that I struggle not to be cynical about almost everything I hear. I choose to be skeptical in my search for truth while avoiding cynicism.
This is especially true when considering religion and politics. In these two controversial areas, people like to speak with confidence. But the ideas that people push with confidence are so varied that a large proportion of them must be wrong.
Religion and politics are important subjects with power to change the minds of people and the course of history, so anyone trying to influence people will tend to communicate with confidence regardless of the uncertainty in what they are saying. Confidence wins people hearts and minds. Acknowledging uncertainty doesn’t.
One of my life quests has been to know the truth, so I must acknowledge uncertainty even though it diminishes my influence. I choose to believe many things, and I assess uncertainty in all of them.
Consider a few examples:
Most certain: I exist
Everything in this universe is energy. There is no fundamental particle. Very uncertain theory.
Supernatural stuff happens. Low uncertainty because I’ve witnessed some first hand and heard many testimonies from credible witnesses.
A creator God exists. I find the evidence here strong, but the conclusion relies on reasoning. Other reasonable possibilities exist, leaving this conclusion uncertain.
The Bible is a message from God. Evidence supports this conclusion as well, but evidence does not support the Bible as an infallible, perfect message from God. Uncertainty is high in these matters.
In religion and politics, it appears that we’re right in less than 10% of what we believe.
Some people say I lack faith because I don’t claim certainty in these religious doctrines, but faith is about trusting God, not presuming knowledge. You can have faith even with a realistic understanding of evidence and reasoning. I trust in God because he’s shown himself trustworthy through evidence. I accept that the evidence leaves a small level of uncertainty, but the evidence is strong enough to justify faith.
In a democratic society we like to have confidence when we vote. We want to know that the people we vote for are right and trustworthy. You may wonder how I vote when I see political positions as at least 90% wrong. I trust probability. I study the evidence and vote based on what’s most likely true and good.
This leads me to guidelines for living in an uncertain world.
The Roger Deemer Uncertainty Principle:
Life is extremely uncertain.
It’s our duty to do our best to discover what’s true and good.
We must minimize uncertainty through evidence, knowledge, understanding, and wisdom.
Then act on what appears to be most certain.
We must recognize uncertainty to remain humble and respectful toward those we disagree with.
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