2.6. Supply-side Policies

Syllabus Content

  • The role of supply-side policies - supply-side policies and the economy
  • Interventionist supply-side policies - investment in human capital; investment in new technology; investment in infrastructure & industrial policies
  • Market-based supply-side policies - policies to encourage competition; labour market reforms & incentive-related policies
  • Evaluation of supply-side policies - The strengths and weaknesses of supply-side policies

Triple A Learning - supply-side policies

Triple A Learning - supply-side policies questions

A Short history of supply-side policy

From 1945 until the mid-1970s, Keynesian fiscal policy (Demand Management) was the major instrument of government economic policy in most countries around the world.

The Phillips curve represented the observed inverse relationship between the rate of unemployment and the rate of inflation in an economy. In other words, the lower the level of unemployment in an economy, the higher the rate of inflation (and vice-versa). This observed relationship had underpinned many governments' macroeconomic policies since the 1950s.

However, while this trade off appeared to exist in the short-run, the relationship broke down in the long run. In the early 1970s, 'stagflation', occurred in many countries, which was the simultaneous increase in inflation and unemployment; a situation that Keynesian economists believed was not possible.

As a result, the use of monetary policy to achieve macroeconomic goals (prioritizing inflation) became widespread, and has dominated government policies in major economies since the 1970s. The 'radical right', or monetarists, in the USA particularly (although similar moves were happening in Europe), suggested that concentration on the demand-side of the economy was untenable and that governments should focus instead on supply-side policies to create greater flexibility in the economy to react to changes in aggregate demand. Monetarist policies came to dominate government economic approaches to controlling inflation coupled with a free-market approach for unemployment in most developed economies: with a growing importance placed on the use of interest rates to fine tune economic development.

The debate moved away from Keynesian policies to arguments over the nature of supply-side policies and whether these should be more or less interventionist in nature as both liberals and conservatives embraced policy measures focusing on increasing aggregate supply.

However, it should be noted that many governments reacted to the financial crisis of 2007 - 2010, by using traditional Keynesian approaches to stimulate aggregate demand, in face of opposition from Monetarists who saw these policies as inevitably inflationary in the longer-term. E.g. President Obama’s stimulus package starting in 2008.

Explain that supply-side policies aim at positively affecting the production side of an economy by improving the institutional framework and the capacity to produce (that is, by changing the quantity and/or quality of factors of production).

Supply-side policies are designed to make the production potential (also called Capacity, Full Employment) greater. In other words to shift LRAS to the right.

Supply-side policies tend to concentrate on improving efficiencies in either product markets, i.e. specific goods and/or services such as cars, tourism or labour markets. Supply-side policies are designed to increase competition and efficiency of production by improving the quality and quantity of Factors of Production including labour available to firms. When combined with other macro policies, they deliver a more competitive and efficient economy.

Supply-side policies focus on:

Removing market imperfections - barriers to the smooth operation of product and labour markets

Removing restrictive practices - rules that do not allow the free movement of factors within an economy

Making work more rewarding - increase incentives to work

Making workers more efficient

Supply-side policies aim to shift the LRAS curve to the right, increasing the level of real output and putting downward pressure on the price level. This is shown in Figure 1 below:

Introduction to Supply-side policies

State that supply-side policies may be market-based or interventionist, and that in either case they aim to shift the LRAS curve to the right, achieving growth in potential output.

Only free-market economists and politicians initially advocated supply-side policies. However, policies designed to affect the aggregate supply of goods and services are now embraced by those in favour of a more interventionist approach. It may, therefore, be better to think of supply-side policies in terms of being either market based or interventionist.

In Brazil president Lula initiated the Accelerated Growth Programme (Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento - PAC)

The Growth Acceleration Program involves investments by the Federal government, state enterprises and the private sector in construction, sanitation, energy, transport and logistics

  • Interventionist Supply-side policies

http://textbook.stpauls.br/Economics/Macroeconomics/media/ssideintervention.html

  • Market-based Supply-side policies

http://textbook.stpauls.br/Economics/Macroeconomics/media/ssidemarket.html

The effect of supply-side will result in both SRAS and LRAS moving rightwards

Task 1: Take each of the 10 key objectives of supply-side policies and determine which market-based and interventionist policies align with each objective

10 Key objectives of supply-side policies

Types of market-based and intervenionist supply-side policies

Market-based vs interventionist

Interventionist supply-side policies

Explain how investment in education and training will raise the levels of human capital and have a short-term impact on aggregate demand, but more importantly will increase LRAS.

Basically, any government policy causing an increase in labour market participation increases the supply of labour. The figure below shows how various forms of interventionist supply-side policies – notably education, (re-) training and greater labour mobility – increase the aggregate supply of labour. This in turn increases the potential output in the economy, LRAS.

By increasing the skills base of labour, decreasing the search costs of both employers and job searchers and

creating incentives for increased labour mobility, there will be an increase in the aggregate supply of labour, shown in the figure above as the shift in the aggregate supply of labour from ASL0 to ASL1.1 Assuming that wages adjust relatively quickly – e.g. no downward stickiness of wages – the real wage rate falls to W* and unemployment decreases from U0 _U1 to FE_U* - the natural rate of unemployment.

What is human capital?

Investing in human capital

How R&D will increase the LRAS

Explain how increased and improved infrastructure will have a short-term impact on aggregate demand, but more importantly will increase LRAS.

The initial impact of investment is on the AD curve, which shifts to the right as investment (I) is a component of AD, show shown below:

In the long run, the investment will increase the economy's capacity to produce, which shifts the LRAS curve to the right. Finally, it is likely that production costs will fall as new technology increases efficiency and reduces average costs. This means that the SRAS curve shifts to the right. The combined effects are that the economy grows, both in terms of potential output and actual output, without inflationary pressure.

Explain that targeting specific industries through policies including tax cuts, tax allowances and subsidised lending promotes growth in key areas of the economy and will have a short-term impact on aggregate demand but, more importantly, will increase LRAS

It is common for governments to take an active role in helping industries via government legislation and allocation of funds. The following industrial policies can increase long run potential:

• R&D grants to firms together with government support for R&D units linked to state

universities

• Regional support for fledgling industries

• Relocation subsidies for workers to seek and take jobs in other regions

• Active promotion of Home Country industries and products via trade legations at embassies abroad

Market-based supply-side policies

Reducing the power of trade unions

Lower taxes, Higher revenues

Connection between supply-side policies and the macroeconomic objectives

Evaluation of supply-side policy

Evaluate the effectiveness of supply-side policies through consideration of factors including:

• Time lags,

• The ability to create employment,

• The ability to reduce inflationary pressure,

• The impact on economic growth,

• The impact on the government budget,

• The effect on equity, and

• The effect on the environment.

Supply-side policies - strengths

Supply-side policies may be targeted at particular sections of the economy raising efficiency there. Successful application on the economy, as a whole, will shift the LRAS to the right and have a double effect, increasing the level of real output and lowering the price level.

Achievement of the major macro-economic goals of economic policy may be achieved if LRAS is shifted to the right. Such a shift:

• Represents an increase in the productive potential of the economy (economic growth)

• Will lower the price level (thus helping to reduce inflation)

• Will increase the level of real output and, more than likely, the level of employment as the two are closely correlated.

• Will help to improve the balance of payments if the improved efficiency represented by greater LRAS transmits itself through to increased competitiveness for firms engaged in exporting.

Policies that cut the rate of income tax, in addition to increasing the incentive to work and to be entrepreneurial are considered by some economists to lead to an increase in tax revenue. As employment and incomes increase they generate more tax revenue, albeit with lower tax rates. This is demonstrated by the Laffer curve. However, there is some dispute as to the precise rate of tax, which maximizes potential tax revenue.

Laffer Curve

More interventionist supply-side policies may, in addition to increasing productive efficiencies, have the effect of injecting money into the circular flow of income and setting up a multiplier process leading to an increase in output, employment and income. The benefits, or otherwise, of this expansionary fiscal effect can be further considered by reviewing Section 2.4.

Supply-side policies - weaknesses

As we have seen, while some supply-side policies represent a more interventionist approach, most supply-side policies are associated with neo-classical, free market or supply-side economists. There is considerable disagreement between free market economists and economists who favour an interventionist approach, as to how best the economy should be managed.

Some interventionist objections to particular free market oriented supply-side policies are as follows:

Education and training - few would disagree with the wisdom of committing government spending to these areas, but such expenditure may be insufficient in itself to guarantee permanent jobs without ensuring an adequate level of aggregate demand in the economy; in supply-side policies they need to be accompanied by appropriate fiscal and/or monetary policies.

Reduction in unemployment benefits - apart from the economic objection, that such a policy would lower the spending power of such recipients and therefore reduce aggregate demand, output and employment, such a policy can be questioned on moral and political grounds. Is it right to make a group of people who are likely to be amongst the poorest in society, even poorer, while at the same time making the rich richer through tax cuts? Moreover, the idea that 'taking a stick' to the unemployed to force them back to work, presupposes that all unemployment is of a voluntary nature. In practice, people may be involuntarily unemployed, due to lack of demand in the economy or as the result of scarce employment opportunities in their geographic area.

Reduction in direct taxes - while low-income individuals and families are given the 'stick' to improve their incentives (via cuts in welfare benefits), the better off are given the 'carrot' in the form of tax cuts. Apart from the morality of such policies, which make life more unpleasant for the least fortunate and make society more unequal, the alleged incentive effects of lower taxes have little empirical basis. A number of studies have shown that cutting income tax does not make people work harder and longer; with a minority being fully aware of the reality of their marginal tax rate. Indeed, it has been found that lower taxes may encourage some employees to take more leisure time as they can now gain the same disposable income by working fewer hours.

Reduction in the power of trade unions - for those economists who are not of the free market persuasion, this is simply viewed as another measure to shift wealth, income and the balance of power away from the less well off to the better off. The individual employee is always weaker than the individual employer, especially where the employer is a large multinational corporation, and trade unions act as a counterbalance to those unequal power relations. Trade unions may reduce the firm's costs by acting as a channel for communication between employers and employees - it is likely to be cheaper for the firm to negotiate with one organization through 'collective bargaining', rather than employers talking with individual employees.

Deregulation - over recent years the world financial system has been largely deregulated with a 'free' market being largely established. This lack of regulation that has widely been blamed for the recent credit crunch and the world - wide economic crisis that followed. It is only the subsequent government intervention, in the form of nationalization and re-regulation that avoided total economic meltdown.

Privatization - this has been at the heart of supply-side, free market economies since the early 1980s and has been a central component of the structural adjustment programmes imposed on less developed countries by the IMF and the World Bank. Click on QUOTES to get a flavour of the degree of opposition privatization has caused.

In particular, privatization has been criticized on the following grounds:

Political arguments - for those who believe that socialism represents a superior form of society to capitalism, the movement towards privatization of the means of production will inevitably lead to greater class conflict, greater exploitation of workers and a more unequal and unfair society in general.

Management of the economy - a privatized laissez-faire economy, as opposed to one with varying degrees of government control, is likely to be particularly prone to the vagaries of the market, the violent swings of the trade cycle and the movement in an out of the country of speculative capital flows.

Natural monopolies - the case against the privatization of utility industries such as gas, water and electricity rests upon the enormous potential for private monopoly abuse in terms of high prices, poor quality service for consumers, worsened conditions and redundancies for employees, with high dividends for shareholders and high salaries for senior managers (the 'fat cat' syndrome).

Fraud - while claiming that 'popular capitalism' has returned industries to the public, the opposite has been the case. When an industry is nationalized, in theory it is jointly owned by everyone in the country. Privatization, therefore, represents a process of selling shares or assets to people, who may already own those assets, a confidence trick which if carried out by any individual would carry a stiff custodial sentence! At the same time, those individuals, who are either unable or unwilling to purchase shares, are, in effect compelled to relinquish their assets.

Deregulation - this has also been a central plank of supply-side policy and its advantages are based on the general arguments for a freely operating price system, e.g. the promotion of competition and enterprise, greater efficiency, lower prices and wider choice for consumers and 'getting the state of the backs' of businesses by the removal of 'red tape' and bureaucracy. However, like privatization, it has been fiercely criticized. Follow the criticisms of deregulation link to see these.

Evaluating supply-side policies

Further evaluation of supply-side policies

Files to download

2.6-supply-side-policies.pdf
2.5 & 2.6 Monetary and Supply Side Policy.pptx