Article 249 - The Remaining Energy to Manufacture Renewable Energy Sources.
The Remaining Energy to Manufacture Renewable Energy Sources.
This essay examines if there is a finite amount of energy available on Earth to manufacture renewable energy devices. Renewable energy devices relate to hydro, wind, solar, biofuels, geothermal and oceanic energy sources. This essay examines only the wind and solar p.v. devices.
Method
The population of the Earth is established.
The increase in the population of the Earth from 2018 to 2100 is established.
The reliance of renewable energy devices on manufactured components is established.
The existing energy sources are established.
The global fossil fuel resource durations related to global consumption are established.
The phase out date for fossil fuels is established.
The available time to manufacture renewable energy devices is established.
The available fossil fuel energy to manufacture renewable energy devices is established.
The number of renewable devices that can be manufactured is established.
Conclusions are then drawn.
References are included in the text and at the end of the essay.
The Population of the Earth
The current population of the Earth in 2018 is 7,600,000,000 (2017)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
The Increase in the Population of the Earth 2018 to 2100.
Population growth annually is 83,000,000 per year.(1% of the total population.)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth
The global population estimate by 2050 is 9,800,000,000. (10,256,000,000 at 1% per year)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth
The global population estimate by 2100 is 11,200,000,000. (14,406,000,000 at 1% per year)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth
The Reliance of Renewable Energy Devices on Manufactured Components.
Renewable energy devices relate to hydro, wind, solar, biofuels, geothermal and oceanic energy sources. These all require energy collection devices and energy output devices to provide energy for humans. These all need to be manufactured. All renewable energy is reliant on manufactured components.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_development#Hydroelectricity
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_development#Wind
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_development#Solar
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_development#Biofuels
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_development#Geothermal
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_development#Oceanic
Existing Energy Sources
The total primary global energy consumption in 2016 was 13276.3 Mtoe.
The total primary global energy consumption in 2016 by fuel source in order of magnitude was.
Oil 4418.2 Mtoe
Coal 3732.0 Mtoe
Natural Gas 3204.1 Mtoe
Hydro 910.3 Mtoe
Nuclear 592.1 Mtoe
Renewables 419.6 Mtoe
Source: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/primary-energy.html
Global Fossil Fuel Resources and Global Consumption
Global Oil Reserves
1,726,685,000,000 barrels. E.I.A. 2017.
1,481,526,000,000 O.P.E.C barrels. 2015.
1,697,600 B.P. millions of barrels. 2015.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves
1,665,000,000,000 bbl (C.I.A. 1 January 2017 est)
Source: CIA World Factbook
An average estimate of total global reserves of oil would be 1,642,703,000,000 barrels.
Global Oil Consumption
Global Crude Oil Consumption has been estimated at 35,000,000,000 barrels per year in 2016.
Source: https://www.iea.org/about/faqs/oil/
This allows for a resource duration of
1,642,703,000,000 / 35,000,000,000
47 years at 2016 reserves and consumption levels.
Global Coal Reserves
Global Coal Resources are estimated at 1,192,679,600,000 tonnes in 2016.
Source: https://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/resource/coal/
Source: https://www.unitjuggler.com/convert-energy-from-ktoe-to-tSKE.html?val=834875720
Global Coal Consumption
Global Coal Consumption has been estimated at 7,800,000,000 tonnes of coal per year in 2018.
Source: https://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/resource/coal/
This allows for a resource duration of
1,192,679,600,000 / 7,800,000,000
153 years at 2016 to 2018 reserves and consumption levels.
Global Natural Gas Reserves
Global Natural Gas Reserves are estimated at 205,340,000,000,000 m3 from 2006 to 2016 data.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves
Other sources indicate 186,600,000,000,000 m3 in 2016.
Source: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/natural-gas/natural-gas-reserves.html
An estimate would be 195,970,000,000,000 m3
Global Natural Gas Consumption
Global Natural Gas Consumption has been estimated at 3,542,900,000,000 m3
Source: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-natural-gas.pdf
This allows for a resource duration of
195,970,000,000,000 / 3,542,900,000,000
55 years at 2006 to 2017 reserves and consumption levels.
Fossil Fuel Phase Out
‘The main sources of greenhouse gases due to human activity are burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, land use change, livestock enteric fermentation, manure management, paddy rice farming, land use and wetland changes, man-made lakes, pipeline losses, covered vented landfill, use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in refrigeration systems, and use of CFCs and halons in fire suppression systems and manufacturing processes, agricultural activities, including the use of fertilizers.’
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas#Natural_and_anthropogenic_sources
‘A September 2016 report by Oil Change International concludes that the carbon emissions embedded in the coal, oil, and gas in currently working mines and fields, assuming that these run to the end of their working lifetimes, will take the world to just beyond the 2 °C limit contained in the 2015 Paris Agreement and even further from the 1.5 °C goal. The report observes that "one of the most powerful climate policy levers is also the simplest: stop digging for more fossil fuels’
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out
‘The unrestricted use of fossil fuels should be phased out by 2100 if the world is to avoid dangerous climate change, a UN-backed expert panel says.’
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29855884
‘The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says in a stark report that most of the world's electricity can - and must - be produced from low-carbon sources by 2050.’
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29855884
Oil is to be phased out by 2050 to 2100.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out
If temperatures increase then this must be carried out sooner between 2030 and 2050.
Coal is to be phased out by 2030.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out
Natural gas is to be phased out by 2050 to 2100.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out
If temperatures increase then this must be carried out sooner between 2030 and 2050.
The Available Time to Manufacture Renewable Energy Devices
This from the fossil fuel energy phase out data is between 2030 and 2050.
The remaining time available is therefore 2030 – 2018. 12 years.
Allowing for the population of the earth to increase by 83,000,000. 1% per year. Between 2018 and 2030. Allows for a total population of 8,596,000,000 people by 2030.
Allowing for the previous global reserves and global consumption rates for each fossil fuel and then updating these figures to the 2030 population total for each fossil fuel.
Oil
For 8,596,000,000 people this would equate to 39,541,600,000 barrels consumption per year in 2030.
This allows for a resource duration of 41 years at 2016 reserves and consumption levels.
Coal
For 8,596,000,000 people this would equate to 8,822,210,526 tonnes consumption a year.
This allows for a resource duration of 135 years at 2016-2018 reserves and consumption levels.
Natural Gas
For 8,596,000,000 people this would equate to4,007,206,368,421m3 consumption a year.
This allows for a resource duration of 49 years at 2006 to 2017 reserves and consumption levels.
The Available Fossil Fuel Energy to Manufacture Renewable Energy.
Taking the global energy produced from each of the fossil fuels.
Allowing 1 MToe to be 11,630,000,000 kWh.
Source: https://www.unitjuggler.com/convert-energy-from-Mtoe-to-kWh.html
Allowing for the global consumption volumes per year previously stated per fossil fuel and calculating the kWh value for each fossil fuel.
Oil
4418.2 Mtoe consumed = 35,000,000,000 barrels = 51,383,666,000,000 kWh /yr
Coal
3732.0 Mtoe consumed = 7,800,000,000 tonnes = 43,403,160,000,000 kWh /yr
Natural Gas
3204.1 Mtoe consumed = 3,542,900,000,000 m3 = 37,263,683,000,000 kWh /yr
Taking the number of years available up to the year 2030 at this consumption level allows for a total consumption of energy available to produce renewable energy devices to be established.
Oil
51,383,666,000,000 kWh x 12 = 616,603,990,000,000 kWh
Coal
43,403,160,000,000 kWh x 12 = 520,837,920,000,000 kWh
Natural Gas
37,263,683,000,000 kWh x12 = 447,164,200,000,000 kWh
This equates to a total global energy reserve from fossil fuels up to their minimum phase out year of 2030 of 1,584,606,110,000,000 kWh to manufacture renewable energy devices. This total per person on Earth in 2030 allows for a total global renewable allocation over 12 years of 184,342 kWh per capita. 15,361 kWh globally per year per capita.
The Number of Renewable Energy Devices that can be Manufactured.
Two types of renewable energy devices are examined. Wind turbines and solar p.v. panels.
Wind Turbines
A 2.5kW pole-mounted wind turbine would cost £12,500 and generate 4,400kWh a year.
Source: https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/wind-turbines/how-much-does-wind-turbines-cost.html
Allowing for this to be the total cost and energy level of the wind turbine before its begins to pay for itself. The number of turbines a person on Earth could install would be.
15,361 kWh per year / 4,400kWh of energy per turbine
3. 2.5kWh turbines per year.
36. 2.5kWh turbines over 12 years.
This would allow for a global turbine increase based on the total 2030 global population of.
1,584,606,110,000,000 / 4,400kWh
360,137,752,273 turbines. 41 per person on Earth by 2030.
Solar P.V. Panels.
Allowing for an average semi-detached 21 m2 roof area.
Allowing for 12, 3kW panels.
Allowing for an output of 2550 kWh / year.
Allowing for £6000 cost.
Source: https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/solar-panels/solar-panels-cost.html
Allowing for this to be the total cost and energy level of the solar p.v. panel before its begins to pay for itself. The number of solar p.v. panels a person on Earth could install would be.
15,361 kWh / 2550 kWh
6 solar p.v arrays of 12 3kW panels a year.
72 solar p.v. panels a year.
864 solar p.v arrays of 12 3kW panels over 12 years.
This would allow for a global solar p.v. panel increase based on the total 2030 global population of.
1,584,606,110,000,000 / 2550 kWh
621,414,160,784 p.v. panels. 72 per person on Earth by 2030.
Conclusion
The population of the Earth is increasing and projected to keep increasing.
More energy will be needed per person.
More energy devices will need to be manufactured.
Renewable energy devices require manufactured components.
Existing energy must be used to manufacture these components.
The existing main energy sources in 2016 are fossil fuels.
Fossil fuels must therefore be used to create any future renewable energy devices.
Fossil fuels are the main source of greenhouses gases and so are the main energy source used by humans that is forcing global warming and climate change.
All fossil fuels have to be removed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, global warming and climate change to levels where humans can survive by 2030.
This will reduce the total number of renewable energy devices that can be manufactured from fossil fuels to those before 2030.
There are limited fossil fuel resources on Earth of 47, 55 and 153 years reserves at current consumption rates.
These reserves will reduce as population and energy consumption increases.
There are a finite amount of renewable energy devices that can be manufactured on Earth by 2030 This in terms of wind and solar is between 41 and 72 devices per person by 2030.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
04/04/2018
14/10/2020
1700 words over 5pages