Article 234 - 2020 2050 2080 2100 UK

2020 2050 2080 2100 UK

Theory

The climate in Britain is changing due to the effects of greenhouse gas emissions causing global temperature increases.

These changes will be associated with changes in population, environment, energy and resources.

Confirmation of Global Warming and its Causes

‘The global climate is changing, leading to rising temperatures and sea levels, retreating ice, and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a number of regions.’

Source: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. P15.

‘The average surface temperature of the globe, combined over land and ocean, increased by 0.85°C [0.65 - 1.06°C] between 1880 and 2012 (Figure SR.3 – including data up to and including 2015). The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) concluded that the warming trend in the climate system since the 1950s is unequivocal and the dominant cause is greenhouse gas emissions from human activity.’

Source: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. P15.

‘The amplitude and spatial pattern of warming that has evolved over the 20th century matches the predictions of climate models that incorporate natural and human factors combined, but not natural factors alone (IPCC, 2014).’

Source: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. P15.

‘Human-driven emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have stemmed primarily from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and other land-use change. Accelerating economic activity over the 20th century means that half of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions since the beginning of the industrial revolution occurred between 1970 and 2011 (IPCC, 2014).’

Source: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. P15.

‘According to data extracted from ice cores, and other lines of evidence, concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere are at their highest for at least the last 800,000 years (IPCC, 2014).’

Source: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. P15.

‘Fourteen of the sixteen warmest years on record have occurred since 2000, with 2015 confirmed as the warmest year globally on record. 2015 was more than 1°C higher than pre-industrial temperatures and 0.2°C above 2014 which was the previous warmest year. Such a run of high temperatures is extremely unlikely to have occurred in the absence of human-caused climate change (Mann et al., 2016). The global temperature record is highly likely to be broken again in 2016.’

Source: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. P16.

Sea level rise: After little global change between AD 0 and 1900, global average sea levels have risen by 19 [17 – 21] centimetres since the beginning of the 20th century (IPCC, 2014). This has principally been caused by thermal expansion of the oceans (IPCC, 2014) but there have also been 31 successive years of net losses in glacier mass and other ice on land (NOAA, 2015). The rate of sea level rise has accelerated to more than 3mm per year since the 1990s (IPCC, 2014).

Source: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. P16.

Method

The current climate of the UK can be established using data on Summer Temp Range, Sunshine Hours, Rainfall, Sea Temp, Sea Level, Population, Total Land Area, Total Coastline, Total Farmland

Total Natural, Total Green Urban, Total Built On, Natural land at flood risk, Properties in flood areas, Population in flood areas, Population within 5km of coast, Residential Population in flood areas; Ports, Business, Energy nuclear, Energy oil and gas, Energy oil refineries, Road network, Rail network, Water and Waste Treatment, Sea Defenses, Coastal Erosion, Defended Coast Erosion; at risk to flooding.

The additions or subtractions for each category for each of the years 2020, 2050,2080 and 2100 can then combined with the initial data.

New climate models for the UK for 2020, 2050,2080 and 2100 are then established.

Conclusions are then drawn.

Conclusions

From a comparison of the 2018 spreadsheet data for the years 2020, 2050, 2080 and 2100 the following can be established for the UK.

The population of the UK will by 2100 increase to approx. 82,370,000. This is an additional 16,730,000 people to be accommodated, fed, watered, clothed and administered on the same land area.

There will be less space per person in the UK by 2100.

The total land area of the UK will remain the same up to 2100.

Parts of the existing, 2018, land area, will be flooded but remain part of the total land area to be owned or administered.

There will be less land per person in the UK by 2100.

The total coastline of the UK varies due to tidal conditions from 17,820km to 31,368km.

The variance in coastline will increase by 2100.

The total farmland of the UK increases by 11.3% to allow the increased population to be fed.

The total natural land of the UK decreases by 2100 to allow for more farmland to be created to feed the increasing population.

The total green urban land area of the UK increases by a minimal percentage by 2100 and does not provide sufficient increased green urban areas for the future population.

The built on land area of the UK increases by a minimal percentage by 2100 and does not provide sufficient increased built area for the future population.

These condition are both partly due to land restrictions, phasing out of fossil fuels and a reduction in construction; the main use of fossil fuels; and complying with agreements relating to climate change.

The minimum and maximum temp range will increase by up to 5 to 6 deg C by 2100.

The UK will get progressively warmer as the century progresses.

The UK population will be increasingly affected by heat stress as the century progresses.

The hours of sunshine will remain constant from 2018 to 2100.

The rainfall in the UK will decrease by 2100 by -9.3mm in Summer and increase by +57.1mm in Winter.

The UK will get progressively drier in Summer and progressively wetter in Winter as the century progresses.

The South of the UK will be drier for most of the year.

The North of the UK will be wetter for most of the year.

Farming conditions will completely alter in all parts of the UK.

Despite the increase in rainfall drought conditions will occur more regularly in the UK.

Water shortages will increase in the South of the UK more than the North of the UK.

Despite the drier conditions flooding potential will increase throughout the UK.

Sea Temp will increase by up to 5 to 6 deg C by 2100.

The ecosystem of the UK sea areas will change as the century progresses.

The life in the sea will face evolutionary constraints causing species die off.

New species will be introduced into existing habitats.

The tourist industry along the coasts should increase in Summer and decrease in Winter due to the temperature change.

The volume of the seas around the UK will increase as rainfall and sea temperature increases.

Sea level; and volume; will increase by up to 627mm by 2100.

Flooding along the coasts of the UK will increase as the century progresses.

Nat. land at flood risk will increase as the century progresses and could be 11,552km2, 4.7% of the UK land area by 2100.

Properties in flood areas will increase as the century progresses and could number 3,980,000, 15%, of the current; assuming constant re-use; housing stock by 2100.

Population in flood areas will increase as the century progresses and could number 11,940,000 14% of the total population by 2100.

Population numbers within 5km of the coast and liable to annual flooding and in need of resettlement will increase as the century progresses. This could account for 35,899,200 44% of the total population by 2100. Populations along the coast will need to be permanently relocated due to seasonal flooding.

All of the 52 ports along the UK coast will be affected by sea level change and need restructuring and relocating by 2100.

299,527, 4% of the total, UK businesses by 2100 will have issues with flooding annually and need some form of flood defence or relocation.

12 nuclear power stations by 2100 will have issues with flooding annually and need some form of flood defence or relocation. This issue is increased by the decommissioning and dismantling of all of the UK nuclear plants by 2035 making each of them more vulnerable to flooding and so causing potential contamination of the environment.

12 oil and gas power stations by 2100 will have issues with flooding annually and need some form of flood defence or relocation. This issue is increased by the decommissioning of oil and gas power plants; to comply with climate agreements; making each of them more vulnerable to flooding and so causing potential contamination of the environment.

6 oil refineries by 2100 will have issues with flooding annually and need some form of flood defence or relocation. This issue is increased by the decommissioning of oil and gas power plants to comply with climate agreements making each of them more vulnerable to flooding and so causing potential contamination of the environment.

59,505 km, 15%, of the current total road network by 2100 will have issues with flooding annually and need some form of flood defence.

789 km, 5%, of the current rail network by 2100 will have issues with flooding annually and need some form of flood defence.

47 of 130, 36% of the current water and waste treatment plants by 2100 will have issues with flooding annually and need some form of flood defence.

110 km, 11%, of the current sea defences by 2100 will have issues with flooding annually and need some form of reconstruction.

12,547 km, 40%, of the current coast, will have erosion by 2100 annually and need some form of artificial reconstruction.

6,274km, 20%, of the defended coast will have will have erosion by 2100 annually and need some form of artificial reconstruction.

The climate in Britain is indeed changing due to the effects of greenhouse gas emissions causing global temperature increases.

These changes are associated with changes in population, environment, energy and resources.

The changes are permanent in nature and require a constant adaptation of the Architecture of the UK.

Ian K Whittaker

Websites:

https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles

Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com

24/01/2018

14/10/2020

1697 words over 4 pages