Article 040 - The Future of Fuel Terminals and Refineries in Britain after Energy Depletion

The Future of Fuel Terminals and Refineries

in Britain after Energy Depletion

If energy levels are reduced by a global reduction in the allowed use of fossil fuels then will the fuel terminal and refinery system in Britain survive up to 2050.

This analysis gives an ongoing framework to test that question.

Current status 2013 – Energy Production

The production of fuel can be broken down as follows.

There are 7 refineries in Britain.

There are 40 oil terminals around Britain.

The operating refining capacity of these is 1,500,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

(4,139,100,000 tonnes of crude oil per year)

Source: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm2013 14/cmselect/cmenergy/340/340.pdf

Current Status 2013

Energy Depletion, Imports, Production Exports, Consumption

and Reserves per year

Year    Import                  Production           Export                Consumption       Reserves

2013    2,599,630,740 t   3,032,580,600 t    2,176,890,660 t  4,437,115,200 t   21,372,120,000 t

2020    883,874,452 t      1,031,077,404 t    740,142,824 t   1,508,619,168 t   7,266,520,800 t

2050    707,099,562 t      824,861,923 t       592,114,259 t   1,206,895,334 t    5,813,216,640 t

Source: CIA World Factbook 2013

This allowing for a 2013 or 2020 or 2050 consumption rate allows for 5 years until reserves are exhausted.

This puts an end of oil reserves at 2013 + 5 = 2018-2020 at the earliest.

Future Status after start of Energy Depletion

If 7 refineries and 40 oil terminals, 47 nodes, can process 4,139,100,000 tonnes of crude oil per year.

Then to process 3,032,580,600 requires only 34 nodes, 6 refineries and 28 oil terminal, nodes in 2013 - 2020

Then to process 1,031,077,404 requires only 12. 3 refineries and 9 oil terminal, nodes in 2020 - 2050

Then to process 824,861,923 requires only 9, 2 refineries and 7 oil terminal, nodes in 2050

Therefore the number of nodes, refineries and oil terminals will reduce as the climate agreements are implemented.

Once this is done there is an ongoing impact on consumption, reserves and manufacturing in Britain.

Ian K Whittaker

Websites:

https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles

Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com

07/10/2013

14/10/2020

334 words over 1 page