"...ideas are forces; and political and religious theories, however irrational or mistaken, become objective realities in any social situation, not by reason of their validity, but on their influences on the minds of human elements in that situation." P. Stelle "Ideology of the T'aiping Insurrection", Chinese Social and Political Science Review, 20 (1), Apr. 1963, p. 140

This page shall be expanded into a full article sometime in 2013-14 time frame. This page will examine the theme of "disconfirmed prophecies", predictions of catastrophe and other phenomena related to the apocalyptic visions in a Millenarian context, such as the latest Millenarian conceptions like the 2012 phenomena among many BUPC adherents. This page will examine the sociological underpinnings to millenarian movements such as the BUPC and the Baha'i Religion. It is important to remember that millenarian movements while sources of social reform can also grow into normative churches such as Christianity where even some sects overtly reject Millenarian concepts although their faith was established in a Millenarian milieu. This article shall look at the deeper implications of apocalyptic predictions toward their social underpinnings and examine the question from the angle of sociological conditions and context.

Millenarianism (also millenarism) is the belief by a religious, social, or political group or movement in a coming major transformation of society, after which all things will be changed, based on a one-thousand-year cycle. The term spawns from the word "millennium", and is more generically used to refer to any belief centered around 1000 year intervals. Millenarianism is a concept/theme that exists in many cultures and religions. Millennialism is a specific type of Millenarianism as it applies to Christianity.

63. O YE PEOPLES OF THE WORLD!

Know, verily, that an unforeseen calamity followeth you, and grievous retribution awaiteth you. Think not that which ye have committed hath been effaced in My sight. By My beauty! All your doings hath My pen graven with open characters upon tablets of chrysolite. Baha'u'llah Hidden Words #63 from the Persian.

Shoghi quotes: http://bci.org/bahaistudies/courses/shoghi.htm

American believers are "the champion-builders of the organic structure of the Cause"

World Order p.52

"Laws and institutions,...can become really effective only when our inner spiritual life has been perfected and transformed."

Shoghi Effendi, cited in Baha'i Youth, a compilation p.10:

The violent derangement of the world's equilibrium; the trembling that will seize the limbs of mankind; the radical transformation of human society; the rolling up of the present-day Order; the fundamental changes affecting the structure of the government; the weakening of the pillars of religion; the rise of dictatorships; the spread oftyranny; the fall of monarchies; the decline of ecclesiastical institutions; the increase of anarchy and chaos; the extension and consolidation of the Movement of the Left; the fanning into flame of the smouldering fire of racial strife; the development of infernal engines of war; the burning of cities; the contamination of the atmosphere of the earth -- these stand out as the signs and portents that must either herald or accompany the retributive calamity which, as decreed by Him Who is the Judge and Redeemer of mankind, must, sooner or later, afflict a society which, for the most part, and for over a century, has turned a deaf ear to the Voice of God's Messenger in this day...

Shoghi Effendi, Messages to the Baha'i World pp. 103.

...the supreme opportunity for their greatest exploits must coincide with the apocalyptic upheaval marking the lowest ebb in mankind's fast-declining fortunes.

...the wings of yet another conflict, destined to contribute a distinct, and perhaps a decisive share to the birth of the new Order which must signalize the advent of theLesser peace...

Shoghi Effendi, Citadel of Faith, pp. 58-59

As the dusk creeps over a steadily sinking society the radiant outlines of their [Baha'is] redemptive mission become sharper every day. The present world unrest, symptom of a world-wide malady, their world religion has already affirmed must needs culminate in that world catastrophe out of which the consciousness of world citizenship will be born, a consciousness that can alone provide an adequate basis for the organization of world unity, on which a lasting world peace must necessarily depend, the peace itself inaugurating in turn that world civilization which will mark the coming of age of the entire human race.

Shoghi Effendi, Messages to America, pp. 22-23

To the general character, the implications and features of this world commonwealth, destined to emerge, sooner or later, out of the carnage, agony, and havoc of this great world convulsion, I have already referred in my previous communications. Suffice it to say that this consummation will, by its very nature, be a gradual process, and must, as Baha'u'llah has Himself anticipated, lead at first to the establishment of that Lesser Peace which the nations of the earth, as yet unconscious of His Revelation and yet unwittingly enforcing the general principles which He has enunciated, will themselves establish. This momentous and historic step, involving the reconstruction of mankind, as the result of the universal recognition of its oneness and wholeness, will bring in its wake the spiritualization of the masses, consequently to the recognition of the character, and the acknowledgment of the claims, of the Faith of Baha'u'llah - the essential condition to that ultimate fusion of all races, creeds, classes, and nations which must signalize the emergence of His New World Order.

Shoghi Effendi, The Promised Day is Come, p. 123

World Catastrophe Prophecy first appeared in Baha'i world via teachings of Abdu'l-Baha to Mason Remey in 1910.

http://www.h-net.org/~bahai/diglib/articles/P-T/Remey/Search/Search.htm

also see Prophecy from AB to MR

Bibliography:

Millenarian Readings, http://cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/notabene/millenarian.html

Chinese Buddhist Millenarianism, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Lotus

Modern Iranian Millenarianism, http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jrcole/bahai/2003/millen2.htm

`Abdu'l-Baha on World Catastrophes: https://sites.google.com/site/causeofgod/home/correspondences/mason-remey-letters/persian-prophecy-from-1917

History of Hopi Prophecy Rock, "The invention of prophecy: continuity and meaning in Hopi Indian religion By Armin W. Geertz"

Charismatic Religion as Popular Protest: The Ordinary and the Extraordinary in Social Movements

Karen E. Fields

Theory and Society

Vol. 11, No. 3 (May, 1982), pp. 321-361

(article consists of 41 pages)

Published by: Springer

Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/657274

The Revelation to John: A Case Study in Apocalyptic Propaganda and the Maintenance of Sectarian Identity Author(s): David A. deSilvaSource: Sociological Analysis, Vol. 53, No. 4, The Unique and the Shared in Religion andSociety (Winter, 1992), pp. 375-395Published by: Oxford University PressStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3711434 .Accessed: 10/06/2011 18:08Your

Anthropological Scholar Anthony Aveni on the 2012 phenomena

millenarian cycles:

1. social tension in cultural group

2. Religion as source of communal morals in most cultures people begin to see visions (hope)

3. Eventually a reformer figure appears

4. creating a new congregation if not recognized by dominant social structures as having authority to reform morals.

5. religious mysteries reinforce hope for change, that is moral reform. Does religion act as a collective history for each communion?

Dealing with Doc's many disconfirmed prophecies:

Deut. 18:21:

²¹ You may say to yourselves, “How can we know when a message has not been spoken by the Lord?” ²² If what a prophet proclaims in the name of the Lord does not take place or come true, that is a message the Lord has not spoken. That prophet has spoken presumptuously, so do not be alarmed.