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Innen medisin og andre samfunnsfag bruker man ofte statistisk hypotesetesting…
Man klarlegger "den signifikante sannhet" ved hjelp av en magisk p-verdi som skal være mindre enn 0.05.
Hvis man utfører "RCT - Randomized Controlled Trial" er man 100% sikker på å ha funnet SANNHETEN
Adam Kucharski skriver i boka : Proof - the Uncertain Science of Certainty, i kapitlet Big Lies:
"One of the biggest risks to any scientific study is randomness. Indeed, much of modern statistics was developed to avoid coincidence for truth. In turn, wider science adopted one statistical concept in particular—the p-value—as the main defence against coincidence. The smaller the p-value, the more confident we can be that the result isn't down to chance. Based on Ronald Fisher's (1890-1962) popular p-value cut-off of 5 per cent, it might be tempting tothink that at least 95 per cent of research findings report a genuine effect. The reality, though, is very different..
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The popularity of Fischer' p-value cut-off means that researchers often struggle to publish findings that come in above this influental number. Most scientific journals want to publish new discoveries, not inconclusive results. Some researchers have responded by getting creative in their descriptions. Studies failing to meet the traditional cut-off have employed euphemisms ranging from 'essentially significant' (p-value of 10 per cent) and 'arguably significant' (p=9 per cent) to ' approximating significance' (p= 7 per cent).
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The socalled 'p-hacking' can dramatically increase the proportion of published research that is false. If a research group tests ten different hypotheses, there is a 40 per cent chance that at least one will cross the traditional p-value cut-off purely by chance. In a situation where they test twenty hypotheses, this rises to almost 65 per cent. If lots of research teams were to do this and publish only their positive results, the scientific literature would be overwhelmed by coincidences."
Det eneste man kan oppnå med statistisk hypotesetesting er å påvise at null-hypotesen sannsynligvis er feil, dvs. en falsifisering av null-hypotesen. Man kan aldri påvise at noen hypotese er riktig, uansett hvor mange hypoteser man tester…‽
Alle komplekse fenomen (kropp, økonomi, vær, mv.) omfatter millionvis av parametre.Man kan dermed finne milliarder av samvariasjon mellom to (eller flere) parametre, og lage like mange hypoteser
For å påvise kausalitet, bør man kunne forklare sammenhenger på celle- og molekylnivå ved hjelp av metabolske omsetningsveier, jfr. Hypoteser, postulater, vitenskap og religion …
Jeg gjetter at mange medisinere ikke vil bruke fallskjerm hvis man må forlate fly eller ballong; ulik risiko med og uten fallskjerm er ikke påvist med RCT…‽
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RCTs: The Foundational Flaw of Modern Medicine?, Orthomolecular Medicine News Service, 2025-11-02
P-values simplified, WMed,
The Emergence of the Randomized, Controlled Trial, New England Journal of Medicine, 2016-08-11
Ray Scott Percival: Confirmation versus Falsificationism, The Encyclopedia of Clinical Psychology, 2015-01-23 (PDF)
Confirmationist and falsificationist paradigms of science, Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, 2014-09-05
John P. A. Ioannidis: Why Most Published Research Findings Are False, PLoS Medicine, 2005-08-30 (PDF)
Artem Adrianov: Nature: In a review of clinical trials, 44% contained flawed data and 26% could not be trusted, researcher finds, LinkedIn, 2023-07-24
Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials, BMJ, 2003-12-18 (PDF) (PMC)
What Most Doctors Don’t Understand About False Positives, Living Systems, ????-??-??
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“But what a weak barrier is truth when it stands in the way of an hypothesis!”
― Mary Wollstonecraft (1759-1797)
"The hypotheses we accept ought to explain phenomena which we have observed. But they ought to do more than this: our hypotheses ought to foretell phenomena which have not yet been observed."
— William Whewell (1794-1866)
"A hypothesis is something which looks as if it might be true and were true, and which is capable of verification or refutation by comparison with facts"
― Charles Sanders Peirce (1839-1914)
"No one believes an hypothesis except its originator but everyone believes an experiment except the experimenter."
— William Beveridge (1879-1963)
“A fact is a simple statement that everyone believes. It is innocent unless found guilty. A hypothesis is a novel suggestion that no one wants to believe. It is guilty until found effective.”
― Edward Teller (1908-2003)
“I cannot give any scientist of any age better advice than this: the intensity of the conviction that a hypothesis is true has no bearing on whether it is true or not.”
― Peter Medawar (1915-1987)
“For every fact there is an infinity of hypotheses.”
― Robert M. Pirsig (1928-2016)
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