The Reform Party in Wales … six reports: deindustrialisation, Reform, Britannia
The Reform Party in Wales … six reports: deindustrialisation, Reform, Britannia
1 The Reform Party in Wales and in the UK
2 A compendium: The Reform Party in the UK, 2025
3 Six reports: deindustrialisation … Reform … Britannia
Easter … waste … deindustrialisation … Scunthorpe … Trump tariffs, April 2025
Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in UK elections … my book
VE Day: today in the UK, tomorrow in Russia … Rus, Britannia, Third Reich
SNP, Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in Scotland … my book
Reform and Britannia … Poland … Love All Always or Prefer Those Like Ourselves?
Labour fall, Reform rise, 2024-2025 … political, opinion, social … voter flow, conditional percentages
1 The Reform Party in Wales and in the UK
Today, Thursday, there is a by-election in Wales. Caerphilly has been Labour since 1918. This is about to change: either Reform or Plaid Cymru will win the seat. Albeit with some tactical voting, this local result mirrors national voting intentions for the Welsh Assembly Senedd elections next year. Whereas a year ago Labour led the voting in Wales in the UK general election, now the Labour vote in Wales has collapsed, just as earlier the Conservative vote collapsed and continues to do so. Whereas Conservatives switch to Reform (both Group A parties), Labour switches to Plaid Cymru (both Group B parties).
A similar process is happening elsewhere in the UK. In by-elections earlier this year Reform won in England and the following month came a close third in Scotland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Runcorn_and_Helsby_by-election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Hamilton,_Larkhall_and_Stonehouse_by-election
UK opinion polls show Conservatives switching to Reform (Group A parties); and Labour switching to LibDem and Greens (Group B parties). The combined vote for Group A parties in recent years has been 44% or higher, comparable with the percentages at the time of Churchill and at the time of Thatcher. A policy gradient from Labour to Reform, Group B to Group A is noted.
Caerphilly by-election opinion poll, October 2025
A Reform 42%
B Plaid Cymru 38%
B Labour 12%
A Conservatives 4%
B Green 3%
B LibDem 1%
Group A 46%
Group B 54%
“Poll gloom for Labour.” The Times, October 23 2025: 4.
Note: small sample size: 501
Earlier: “Selfies, swearing and fist-pumps in the valleys. Nigel Farage on the campaign trail before a crucial by-election in Caerphilly next week.”
The Times, October 11 2025: 15.
This morning, Friday: the results
Yes it was Reform and Plaid Cymru, but it was Plaid Cymru which came first – by a comfortable margin. The Group A percentage of 38% in Caerphilly is comparable with the Group A percentage of 40% in the Welsh Assembly opinion poll in September – see Table 1, final column.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cly9rlj94x1t
. opinion poll actual voting
A Reform 42% 36%
B Plaid Cymru 38% 47%
B Labour 12% 11%
A Conservatives 4% 2%
B Green 3% 2%
B LibDem 1% 2%
Group A 46% 38%
Group B 54% 62%
Two selves, two nationalisms
Reform might be thought of as British nationalism, a British self, and Plaid Cymru as Welsh nationalism, a Welsh self.
Caerphilly, 1918-2025
There is a distinction between the Welsh Assembly Senedd constituency of Caerphilly and the UK parliament constituency of Caerphilly.
Caerphilly: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caerphilly_(Senedd_constituency)
Caerphilly: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caerphilly_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
In the Senedd, Caerphilly has been Labour since devolution in 1999. In the UK parliament Caerphilly has been Labour since 1918 (except when the MP switched to SDP in 1981-1983). The following links provide interesting accounts of a few of its MPs.
Alfred Onions, 1858-1921, began work at the age of ten-and-a half in coalmining: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Onions
Ness Edwards, 1897-1968: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ness_Edwards
Chris Evans, current UKMP: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Evans_(British_politician)
Opinion in Wales 2021-2025
Table 1 below shows the voting for the Welsh Senedd Assembly in 2021; the voting in Wales in the UK general election of 2024; and the voting intention in September 2025 for the next Senedd election.
.(1) Welsh Assembly 2021
Labour had almost double the vote for either the Conservatives or Plaid Cymru. Liberal Democrats and the Greens had less than 5%. UKIP and Reform had less than 2%. Group A was less than 30%.
Note that voting was for the constituency and for the region.
.(2) Caerphilly in the Welsh Assembly in 2021
Caerphilly was more Labour and more Plaid Cymru and less Conservative than Wales as a whole.
.(3) Wales in the UK general election, 2024
Labour had double the vote for either the Conservatives or Plaid Cymru. Liberal Democrats and the Greens had less than 7%. The big change was that the Reform vote leapt from almost nothing to 16.9%, associated with falls in both the Conservative vote and the Plaid Cymru vote. Group A was 35%.
.(4) Opinion polls in September 2025 for the next Welsh Assembly
The placings were a reversal of those in 2021. Plaid Cymru and Reform are the top two, double either the Labour or the Conservative vote. LibDem and Green are similar to what they were before. Group A was 40%.
Table 1 Opinion in Wales, 2021-2025
. WA 2021 ……………….. W’24……….. WA 2025
. nat nat Caerphilly nat Caer B nat
. const region const region poll sep
B Labour 39.9 36.2 46.0 38.7 37.0 38.0 14
A Conserv. 26.1 25.1 17.3 17.8 18.2 11.5 11
B Plaid Cym. 20.3 20.7 28.4 28.5 14.8 21.2 30
B LibDem 4.9 4.3 2.7 2.2 6.5 4.7 6
B Green 1.6 4.4 - 3.7 4.7 4.3 6
A UKIP 0.8 1.6 - 1.7 0 - -
A Reform 1.6 1.1 1.7 1.2 16.9 20.3 29
O Abolish S 1.6 3.7 3.9 3.9 0 0 -
Group A 28.5 27.9 19.0 20.7 35.1 31.8 40
Group B 66.7 65.6 77.7 69.4 63.0 68.2 56
Other 4.8 6.5 3.3 9.9 1.9 0 4
2021: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Senedd_election
2024, Wales UK general election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Wales
Polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Senedd_election
2025: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1mxpg4y559o
“The numbers suggest a realignment in Welsh politics, with “traditional powerhouses no longer assured of their historical positions”, Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre, said.
He added: “The data reveals telling patterns of voter movement across the political spectrum. Plaid Cymru's support has remained relatively stable over recent months with previous Labour converts sticking with their new choice, suggesting the party has successfully consolidated earlier gains.
“Reform UK's growth is built primarily on Conservative defections, with most of their support coming from previous Tory voters, alongside a smaller but notable number of former Labour supporters.
“Labour, meanwhile, is losing voters on multiple fronts – primarily to Plaid and the Greens, but also to a lesser extent to Reform – indicating broader challenges in holding together their traditional coalition. While Reform isn't capturing the bulk of Labour's lost support, even these smaller defections are contributing to Labour's decline.”
Local Caerphilly and national Wales
Comparing the local poll and the recent national poll, Reform and Plaid Cymru have a combined 80% of the votes in the local and only 59% in the national. This suggests tactical voting within Group A and within Group B - in the latter with Caerphilly Labour voters less willing to vote tactically for Plaid Cymru.
Comparing the local poll and the UK 2024 general election GE, the flows were as indicated – but note the small sample sizes involved. For Reform voters in 2024, 90% stayed with Reform and 10% changed to Conservative, etc.
Reform in GE: Reform 90%; Conserv 10% …
Conserv in GE: Reform 57%; Conserv 19%; … Plaid Cymru 21%
Plaid Cymru in GE: Reform 17%; Conserv 0% … Plaid Cymru 83%
Labour: Reform 24%: Conserv 1%; … Plaid Cymru 43%; Labour 32%
Source: “get the data” in
The Wales economy
David Smith relates the political situation to the Wales economy:
GDP is 25% below the UK average, only North East England is lower;
the employment rate is below the UK average;
economic inactivity among working-age people is among the highest – similar to North East England and Northern Ireland;
GDP growth rate 2007-2023 is half that of England;
cumulative growth 2021-2023 is two thirds that of England;
the budget deficit per head is twice that of Scotland.
Smith also identifies problems with transport infrastructure, NHS, tourism and farming and also traditional industries. The problems are partly due to deindustrialisation, partly due to Brexit and partly due to Labour policy.
“There have been government plans for growth at regular intervals over the past 25 years. None has yet delivered. Something must do so.”
“Wales needs more than the silly policies Labou seems hooked on.” David Smith. The Times. October 22 2025: 33.
Reform in the UK
In the wake of the Brexit campaign and the referendum result in 2016 a key issue has been the electoral balance between the Conservative party and the UKIP/Reform party. Boris Johnson’s 2019 victory depended on UKIP not contesting certain seats. As problems engulfed the Conservative government, the Conservative vote slumped and UKIP/Reform gained. Thinking in terms of groups of parties, and considering Conservatives and UKIP/reform as a group, ‘Group A’, this group continued to enjoy the support of roughly half of the voters.
In the general election last year, 2024, the Conservative slump meant that the Group A vote was divided and this allowed Labour, the major Group B party, to win with only about a third of the vote. In Scotland Labour also benefitted from a slump in the SNP vote.
Over the past year, support for the Conservatives has slumped further and Reform has advanced. Alongside this, support for the Labour government has slumped to the benefit of other Group B parties such as the Liberal Democrat and Greens.
Parties have held their Autumn conferences and after-conference polling is:
A Reform 27%
B Labour 20%
A Conservatives 17%
B Lib Dem 16%
B Green 13%
…
Group A 44%
Group B 49%
Group B* 54% (including SNP and PC)
…
“Largest parties fail to reap conference polling bounce.”
The Times, October 15 2025: 13.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Group A: Churchill, Thatcher, 2010 to 2025
Group A is ‘Brittania-leaning’. Historical Group A percentages are given below for Churchill’s and Thatcher’s elections and for the recent period 2010-2025. About half the percentages were in the range 41% to 45%. Outside this range, two percentages were lower: Churchill’s 36.2% in 1945; and Sunak and Farage in 2024 with 38.0%; and four percentages were higher: Churchill’s 48.0% in 1951; Cameron and Farage in 2015 with 49.4% in 2015; Brexit 51.9% in 2016; and Johnson and Farage with 45.6% in 2019. Median Churchill is 43.4%, median Thatcher is 42.4% and the Group A median for the period 2010 to 2025 is 44.1%.
Churchill (1945): 36.2%
Churchill (1950): 43.4%
Churchill (1951): 48.0%
…
Thatcher (1979): 43.9%. (also National Front 0.6%)
Thatcher (1983): 42.4%
Thatcher (1987): 42.2%
…
Group A (2010): 41.1%. (Cameron C 36.1%; Farage, UKIP, 3.1%; BNP 1.9%)
Group A (2015): 49.4%. (Cameron C 36.8%; Farage, UKIP, 12.6%)
[Brexit, Leave (2016): 51.9%]
Group A (2017): 44.1%. (May C 42.3%; UKIP 1.8%)
Group A (2019): 45.6%. (Johnson 43.6%; Brexit Party 2.0)
Group A (2024): 38.0%. (Sunak 23.7%; Reform 14.3%)
Group A (2025): 43% to 53%. (October opinion)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Policy profile of parties
Table 2 shows a policy gradient from Labour and Group B to Reform and Group A. Group A gives greater weight to external and internal security whereas Group B gives greater weight to care (NHS and social care). There is a contrast between a Group A tendency to see the other as negative (as a threat) and a Group B tendency to see the other as positive (as to be cared about).
Table 2 Policy profile of parties
Group B Group A
. Lab LD All C R diff
Cost of living, economy *68 57 59 59 58 10
Immigration, border control 30 36 51 74 90* 60
NHS *62 59 45 39 34 28
Crime, policing, justice 19 20 23 30 37* 18
Social care, elderly, vulnerab *25 22 18 18 14 11
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20251015.html
2 A compendium: The Reform Party in the UK, 2025
Introduction
See also the following Section 3
Introduction
In 2025, Nigel Farage’s Reform Party has continued its advance just as the slump in support for the Conservatives has deepened. This has happened in England, Scotland and Wales. At the same time the support for the Labour government which was elected last year has slumped – just as support for the Liberal Democrats and Greens has increased. In Scotland the ruling SNP had slumped last year to the advantage of Labour. In Wales Labour has slumped to the advantage of Plaid Cymru. Overall, parties in government have fallen out of favour.
The change in national opinion polls has been fairly continuous and has been reflected on a number of occasions by the results in local elections and in by-elections:
local elections in England in May
the Runcorn by-election (England) in May
the Hamilton by-election (Scotland) in
the Caerphilly by-election (Wales) in October
The general relationship between national opinion and local opinion was discussed in Local elections and national opinion – a model (2024).
Voters and political parties can be thought of as having a distribution of positions in multidimensional policy opinion space. In general there is a principal dimension along which parties can be ordered. However other dimensions may order the parties and voters differently. The familiar left-right dimension gives the following order:
. Labour LibDem Conservative Reform
A somewhat different ordering is found for the dimension of support for Brexit, leaving the EU:
. LibDem Labour Conservative UKIP/Brexit/Reform
Other parties such as the Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru usually appear towards the LibDem and Labour end of the scale. In addition the issues these three parties address can be thought of as additional policy dimensions.
Evidence for the location of the parties and voters in space comes from two quite different sources. One is the attributes held by and the opinions expressed by parties and voters; and the other is the flow of voters between parties (the closer the parties are in space the greater the flow between them – after corrections for party size).
A crude approximation to the spatial distribution of the parties is obtained by grouping the parties according to how they cluster in space. Group A consists of Conservative and UKIP/Brexit/Reform. Group B consists of Labour, LibDem, Green, SNP and Plaid Cymru. Attributes and opinions within each of the two Groups is similar and between the two groups somewhat different. The flow of voters is greater within each of the two Groups and the flow between the two groups is lesser. The aggregated Group voting percentages fluctuate less than the individual party percentages do.
A fundamental feature of relationships is the conception of the self and of the other as being positive or negative. One pattern is being positive towards the self but negative towards the other. Another pattern is being positive towards the self and also positive towards the other.
Britannia is a certain conception of Britain, seeing Britain as positive and others as negative. Churchill is a hero and Thatcher is a heroine. Advocating Brexit, Britain is positive and the European Union is negative. Group A is associated with Britannia.
Other nations have corresponding conceptions. These conceptions are sometimes acted out sometimes with negative consequences for the other and sometimes negative consequences for both the self and the other. Each year commemorates the wars which have caused such great harm. The year 2025 opened with Donald Trump’s trade war announcing tariffs on goods from other countries.
3 Six papers: deindustrialisation … Reform … Britannia
Report titles
Y25.9 Easter … waste … deindustrialisation … Scunthorpe … Trump tariffs, April 2025
Y25.10 Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in UK elections … my book
Y25.11 VE Day: today in the UK, tomorrow in Russia … Rus, Britannia, Third Reich
Y25.12 SNP, Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in Scotland … my book
Y25.13 Reform and Britannia … Poland … Love All Always or Prefer Those Like Ourselves?
Y25.15 Labour fall, Reform rise, 2024-2025 … political, opinion, social … voter flow, conditional percentages
Links to the reports
Y25.9 Easter … waste … deindustrialisation … Scunthorpe … Trump tariffs, April 2025
Easter … waste … deindustrialisation … Scunthorpe … Trump tariffs, April 2025
Y25.10 Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in UK elections … my book
Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in UK elections … my book
Y25.11 VE Day: today in the UK, tomorrow in Russia … Rus, Britannia, Third Reich
VE Day: today in the UK, tomorrow in Russia … Rus, Britannia, Third Reich
Y25.12 SNP, Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in Scotland … my book
SNP, Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in Scotland … my book
Y25.13 Reform and Britannia … Poland … Love All Always or Prefer Those Like Ourselves?
Reform and Britannia … Poland … Love All Always or Prefer Those Like Ourselves?
Y25.15 Labour fall, Reform rise, 2024-2025 … political, opinion, social … voter flow, conditional percentages
Section titles for the reports
Y25.9 Easter … waste … deindustrialisation … Scunthorpe … Trump tariffs, April 2025
It is Easter weekend, Trump’s tariff pronouncements have created turmoil for the world economy and in the UK the government has taken control of Chinese-owned British Steel. A key issue is deindustrialisation. All the while, plastic waste is being produced.
1 Positive value
Easter
The capacity for love
Power and benevolence of benevolence institutions
2 Environment: Waste Wars
3 The world economy
The industrial revolution in the west … deindustrialisation in the west … the east
Scunthorpe steelworks
4 Trump: self, power, initiator
Initiators of conflict?: Putin, Hamas, Trump
Trump’s tariffs
Trump’s tariffs, 2018-2019
Trump tariffs, February 2025
Trump tariff headlines, March-April 2025
Tariffs and the power of the rich to avoid taxation
Y25.10 Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in UK elections … my book
1 Prelude to the UK local elections, 2025
Tomorrow, Thursday
Background
Group A and Group B: parties in political space
Current opinion polls
UK general election 2024
Step ratios, comparing 2024 and 2025
Flow: party survival rates, from 2024 to 2025
Flow: within-group and between-group … distance
Flow equations
The Runcorn and Helsby by-election: a step ratio prediction
The Runcorn and Helsby by-election: a flow equation prediction
Local elections 2021
Local elections: step ratios 2021 to 2025
2 The book: Local elections and national opinion – a model
1 Introduction and overview
… Swing: uniform? proportional? linear? general? … flow … seats
2 An analysis of changing percentages – a conceptual map
3 National elections: mass and motion in political space, 1945-2024
4 Local results in national elections
5 Local government elections
6 By-elections
7 Modelling
Y25.11 VE Day: today in the UK, tomorrow in Russia … Rus, Britannia, Third Reich
VE Day: today in the UK, tomorrow in Russia
Britannia … the Conservative party
A two-group system … the Britannia group
Runcorn: a Britannia by-election?
… Model: national step ratio plus group 50% tactical voting
The national self … empires in Europe … the Ottoman empire
USA power: self and other; positive and negative
Y25.12 SNP, Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in Scotland … my book
1 Prelude to the Hamilton, Scotland, by-election, 5 June 2025
2 The reports on the May 2025 elections
3 The book: Local elections and national opinion – a model
1 Prelude to the Hamilton, Scotland, by-election, 5 June 2025
Today, Thursday, in Hamilton
Background (May 2025)
Group A and Group B: parties in political space
National
Current opinion polls, Scotland
Scottish Parliament election 2021
Scotland opinion, 2021-2025
Step ratios, comparing 2021 and 2025
Local
The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election: a step ratio prediction
National step ratio and local voting
Y25.13 Reform and Britannia … Poland … Love All Always or Prefer Those Like Ourselves?
Part 1
Love All Always … or … Prefer Those Like Ourselves?
Introduction
J D Vance and Pope Leo
J D Vance on Fox News … Rory Stewart
Finkelstein on Vance and Stewart
Value functions
Loving and loving functions
The structure of groups in society
Part 2
War and empire: nation - self positive, other negative
Part 3
The West… the right divided Poland
Part 4
Britannia … the Conservative party
Patrick O’Flynn … Daily Express … UKIP … Spectator
A two-group system … the Britannia group
The Britannia variable
The Britannia variable: parties and Brexit support
The Britannia variable: parties/groups and nations
Part 5
Loving All Always and social cohesion … the Britannia variable
Love All … Trust All?
A Britannia social cohesion scale: the Reform-LibDem differential
Income and connectedness
Y25.15 Labour fall, Reform rise, 2024-2025 … political, opinion, social … voter flow, conditional percentages
1 One year on
Reform would win the most seats
Current opinion polls, April and June 2025
2 The survey and the data tables
The large-sample YouGov survey
The data tables and the concepts
3 Conditional percentages
Conditional percentages … Reform, Brexit, education …
… measuring the dependence of attributes
4 Voter flow
An example: Reform voters in 2024 and in 2025
The voter flow matrix, 2024-2025
The relative attraction matrix, 2024-2025
5 Political, social, opinion
Political/social groups with the strongest support for Reform
A Britannia social cohesion scale: the Reform-LibDem differential
6 Education and experts
Brexit … educational level and experts … Michael Gove
Educational level and geographical mobility
Gordon Burt, 23 October 2025
THE END