Trump talks to Putin … (1) Ukraine: from my archives
Trump talks to Putin … (1) Ukraine: from my archives
Introduction
The front page
Editorials
From my archives on Ukraine
Zelensky and the 2019 presidential election
Beforehand: 1918, 1991; 2009; 2014; 2021; 2022
Postscript: opinions in 2025
Postscript: who started it? - Hegseth and Witkoff
Introduction
A lot has been happening recently. Trump and Putin had a “highly productive phone call”. It was not “practical” for Ukraine to have NATO membership. Defence secretary Peter Hegseth said returning to pre-2014 borders was “an unrealistic objective”. Vice-president Vance accused western governments of censoring the views of their own citizens. A few days ago Trump said that Ukraine had “started the war” and that Zelensky was a dictator without elections and had low public support.
These events received extensive news coverage and a brief impression of this is given below, listing recent front page headlines and also Editorials. The coverage addresses a variety of fundamental issues – such as, is the existing international order at an end? – but in this week’s report I simply want to go back and have a look at my archives to see what I wrote back in 2014 and in 2022/2023 and compare it with some of the Trump government’s recent remarks.
The front page
In the preceding fortnight Trump had appeared only three times on the front page of The Times, firstly in relation to the plane crash in the Potomac (1) and secondly in relation to the trade war (2). Then it started:
“Trump and Putin start Ukraine peace talks. Zelensky has ‘meaningful’ call with US president.” The Times, Thursday 13 February 2025: 1.
“US may provide air cover to protect Ukraine peace. Foreign secretary urges Europe to keep calm over Trump’s call with Putin.” The Times, Friday 14 February 2025: 1.
“Vance tells Europe to clean up its own mess. He claims ‘threat from within’ is worse than Russia.” The Times, Saturday 15 February 2025: 1.
“Starmer to join European crisis summit on trump Ukraine plan. Macron calls urgent talks for tomorrow. Fears that US leader is sidelining allies.” The Observer, Sunday 16 February 2025: 1.
“PM will act as ‘bridge’ to Trump in peace talks. Starmer willing to send British troops to Ukraine.” The Times, Monday 17 February 2025: 1.
“Ukraine needs US safety pledges, PM to tell Trump. Starmer will say it is time for Europe to step up on defence as part of peace deal.” The Times, Tuesday 18 February 2025: 1.
“Typhoons may help to keep peace in Ukraine. British jets could avert need for troops.” The Times, Wednesday 19 February 2025: 1.
“Zelensky is no dictator, Starmer tells Trump. US president trades barbs with Ukrainian leader.” The Times, Thursday 20 February 2025: 1.
“Trump is right to ignore ‘despised’ dictator Zelensky, says Musk.” The Times, Friday 21 February 2025: 1.
[see pages ] The Times, Saturday 22 February 2025: 1.
“PM lays down Ukraine peace demand ahead of Trump talks. Kyiv ‘must be at the heart of negotiations. Lammy announces new Russian sanctions.” The Observer, Sunday 23 February 2025: 1.
Notes, other front page stories:
.(1) “Trump blames diversity after 67 are killed in US air crash.” 31.1.25, 1.
.(2) “PM won’t back EU in trade war. Starmer refuses to criticise Trump plan for 10% tariffs on bloc. US tensions overshadow bid for Brussels ‘reset’.” 4.2.25, 1.
“Starmer set to sidestep EU’s tariff war with US. Trump angers Brussels by targeting steel imports.” 11.2.25, 1.
Editorials
The editorials urge higher defence spending in UK and Europe. They refer to Putin’s autocracy. They note divergence from the USA and challenge Trump’s criticism of Zelensky’s Ukraine and indicate the threat of being let down by the USA.
“Hard power. If Europe wants to diverge from the United States over issues such as Ukraine, it must accept that the era of the peace dividend is dead and high defence spending is back.” 14: 25.
“Freedom’s price. Sir Keir Starmer is right to seek security for Ukraine following a peace deal with Russia. But his promise to preserve its independence will be vastly expensive.” 15: 27.
“Dealing with Russia. Talks this week may mark a turn in the rhetoric of East-West relations. Nothing will be achieved however, by overlooking the realities of Putin’s autocracy.” 17: 23.
“Writing cheques. To be credible, Sir Keir Starmer’s proposal to send a British peacekeeping force to Ukraine must be backed by an immediate and substantial rise in defence spending.”
18: 21.
“Guns before butter. To underpin Europe’s security, Sir Keir Starmer must expand defence spending at a time of economic difficulty. That means taking the axe to the bloated welfare system.” 19: 25.
“Pariah state. Donald Trump’s claim that Ukraine started the war is absurd. Vladimir Putin’s Russia is a criminal enterprise deserving of continued punitive sanctions.” 20: 25.
“Darkest hour. Volodymyr Zelensky has proved to be an inspiring war leader, but is now facing his greatest test as his crucial ally, the United States, threatens to cast him to the wolves.” 21: 23.
“” The Times, February 2025.
“A dangerous new international order is unfolding.” The Observer, 23 February 2025: 42.
From my archives on Ukraine
My writings on Ukraine consist of a chapter I wrote in 2014 and a series of contributions to the weekly/monthly reports which I wrote in 2022/2023.
Note that the reports covered other topics besides Ukraine.
The chapter (and the map)
Ukraine: united or divided? West and East; living with others: pages 148-174.
[Ukraine map (language) on the front cover of the 2014 Yearbook]
My reports in 2022
Contents of the reports Ukraine 1 to Ukraine 45 (2022)
My reports in 2023
Ukraine 2023 [“Positive Value” … “World Society”]
The first nine reports in 2022 were:
1 The abstract structure of world opinion
2 World opinion about the Russian invasion
3 Conflict and love … loss aversion and insecurity
4 Platform 5, Lviv … What should be done? A diversity of opinion
5 ‘The nation’, ‘the will of the people’ … entanglement
6 Putin, Patriarch (Moscow, Kviv), Pope, C of E, Christian Aid, Tolstoy
7 War crimes … greed and grievance … Putin and populism … culture
8 Trauma then triumph? … Violent Russia? … Fractured France?
9 Xi … Petraeus & Ferguson … violent? … sex & gender
Zelensky and the 2019 presidential election
In the first round of the 2019 presidential election:
Zelensky (Servant of the People) won most of the oblasts (regions) with 30%, (he had played the role of Ukraine's president in a popular television comedy);
Poroshenko won Lviv and a few other areas in the west and in the middle with none in the east 16%;
Tymoshenko won Lviv and a few other areas in the west and in the middle with none in the east 13%;
Boyko won the unoccupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk and another area in the east
and also an area in the west bordering Moldova 12%
In the second round of the 2019 presidential election:
Zelensky won 73% and Poroshenko (Independent) won 24%.
Poroshenko won Lviv but Zelensky won all the other oblasts including the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukrainian control.
…
Yurio Boyko 2019
currently considered to be one of the primary proponents of closer relations with Russia and is active in parliamentary politics. In 1981 Boyko graduated from the Moscow Institute of Chemical Technology. Gained 11.67% of vote in 2019. Had support in the East and on the border with Moldova.
…
Beforehand: 1918, 1991; 2009; 2014; 2021; 2022
Independence Day of Ukraine, 1918, 1991
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Day_of_Ukraine
2009
Moscow: Obama’s meeting with Prime Minister Putin
“I thanked Putin for his hospitality … and asked for his assessment of the U.S.-Russia relationship during his time in office. Burns hadn’t been kidding when he said the man had a few things to get off his chest. I’d barely finished the question before Putin launched into an animated and seemingly endless monologue cataloguing every perceived injustice, betrayal, and slight that he and the Russian people had suffered at the hands of the Americans …
…The admission of former Warsaw Pact countries into Nato … had steadily encroached on Russia’s “sphere of influence”, while US support for the “colour revolutions” in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan – under the specious guise of “democracy promotion” – had turned Russia’s once-friendly neighbours into governments hostile to Moscow. As far as Putin was concerned the Americans had been arrogant, dismissive, unwilling to treat Russia as an equal partner, and constantly trying to dictate terms to the rest of the world – all of which, he said, made it hard to be optimistic about future relations,”
Promised Land. Barack Obama. (464-465; Putin 463-467). 2021.
2014
Ukraine: united or divided? West and East; living with others: pages 148-174.
Ukraine map (language) on the front cover of the 2014 Yearbook
October to December 2021
December 18, 53:
“Get your tanks off my lawn and don’t come back, Putin tells Nato.
Russia has demanded that Nato, America and Britain withdraw all military bases and troops from central and eastern European countries, including those within the EU. The Russian foreign ministry …
… White House, national security adviser, Jake Sullivan … said the latest assessment from the US is that Putin has not made a decision to invade Ukraine.
…Russia’s demands are an escalation after weeks of rising tensions over Ukraine, a former Soviet state, with about 175,000 Russian troops readied near the border since October.
The Kremlin previously sought assurances that Ukraine would bot be admitted to Nato, a pledge Biden declined to make during a December 7 video conference with President Putin:”
…
Front page headlines:
January 2022
…
7 Russia sends troops to Kazakhstan. 1
8 New defence chief warns of Russian threat at sea. 1
…
10 US is preparing to respond to a Russian invasion of Ukraine with sanctions. 1
…
13 Nato vow on Ukraine
…
20 Ukraine tensions rise
21 Hundreds of UK troops ready to bolster Ukraine’s neighbours. 1
…
23 Confusion at UK claim that Putin plans coup in Kyiv. 1
24 Fears mount Russia will weaponise gas supplied. 1
25 Crisis talks over Ukraine as US troops put on alert. 1
26 Britain readies troops and warns Putin of tough sanctions. 1
27 Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said he was ‘not optimistic’ that Russia could be persuaded to avoid conflict in Ukraine. 1
28 Russia sounds alarm over Russian cash in London. 1
…
31 Oligarchs linked to Kremlin face crackdown on British wealth. 1
…
February 2022
1 Putin call to discuss Ukraine crisis cancelled. Boris Johnson was forced to cancel as he responded to the Gray report. 1.
…
3 US sends extra 3,000 troops to eastern Europe to deter Putin. 1
…
8 Britain will not flinch over Ukraine, says PM. 10
…
10 Liz Truss warns of massive consequences if Ukraine is invaded. 1
11 Moscow meeting will warn Putin’s generals of sanctions. 1
12 Britons told to get out of Ukraine. 1
…
14 Leaders in final push to avert Ukraine invasion. 1
15 Diplomacy can still save Ukraine, insists Johnson. 1
16 Biden doubts Russian withdrawal. 1
…
18 Whitehall convinced Putin is about to invade. 1
…
20 West plans to arm resistance if Russian forces occupy Ukraine. 1
21 Invasion fears rise after Russia fails to withdraw troops. 1
22 Putin sends tanks into Ukraine. 1
…
24 [Full-scale invasion] … Ukraine war could drive 5 million from their homes. 1
25 A dark day for Europe. 1
26 Battle to save Kyiv. 1
27 The world shuns pariah Putin. 1
28 Putin puts nuclear force on alert. 1
Postscript: opinions in 2025
Kyiv
Independent: trust Zelensky 57%
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-trust-in-zelensky-increases-to-57-survey-shows/
USA
support for Ukraine: all -8%; Repub -37%; Democ +21% [before talk]
UK
Opinium:
Net approval on handling Ukraine issue:
EU +15%; last Cons govt +10%; Lab govt +8; Biden -2%; Trump -39%
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/opinium-voting-intention-19th-february-2025/
UK YouGov: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/issue/Ukraine_Russia_War;
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2025/02/20/c33bd/1;
Russia
61% favoured peace talks
https://www.levada.ru/en/tag/ukraine/ ;
October 2024:
“Attention to the Ukrainian events has not changed in recent months: about half of the respondents are closely following the events. The level of support for the military actions remains consistently high. The number of supporters of peace talks continues to grow slowly after a decline in August. If respondents had the opportunity to go back to the past, equal shares of respondents would support or prevent the decision to launch the special military operation. If a family member of the respondent had signed a contract to participate in the special military operation, about 40% would have supported such a decision, but the same number would not have supported it. Those who would approve of such a decision motivated it by the need to protect the homeland and civic duty. And those who would not approve said that they were worried about their loved ones and were in favor of peace.”
https://www.levada.ru/en/tag/ukraine/ ;
Postscript: who started it? - Hegseth and Witkoff
Pete Hegseth, US Defence Secretary: “We know who invaded who. Does all the finger-pointing and pearl-clutching make peace more likely? That is the question the President is asking.”
Steve Witkoff, special envoy to the Middle East: “… the war didn’t need to happen it was provoked. That doesn’t necessarily mean it was provoked by the Russians. There were all kinds of questions back then about Ukraine joining Nato. That didn’t need to happen., it basically became a threat to the Russians… Those are real facts.”
“Britain toughens travel sanctions on Russia’s elite.” The Times, February 24, 2025: 6.
THE END