Mutiny in Russia (Ukraine 71.1)
as at Tuesday 26 June, 2023
Mutiny in Russia (Tuesday 26 June)
Mutiny in Russia (Monday 25 June)
Mutiny in Russia (Sunday 24 June)
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Mutiny in Russia (Tuesday 26 June)
1 Now on the BBC
General: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Ukraine: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60525350
2 The above sources on Tuesday 26 June, 7am
Putin on mutiny leaders: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66024526
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Prigozhin soldiers’ opinion: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66023631
Treason investigation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66021601
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Associated Press
Cautious US response: https://apnews.com/article/biden-russia-insurrection-wagner-e1cb02e978abbe85f4f85cd2932812d9
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Russia and Ukraine
Russia, Tass … government:
Bill on private military companies: https://tass.com/politics/1638679
A single “machine” working against Moscow: https://tass.com/politics/1638599
http://government.ru/en/news/ :
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Ukraine, Kyiv Post … Kyiv Independent … president:
Putin address: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18753
Prigozhin statement: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18750
https://kyivindependent.com/ :
https://kyivindependent.com/petro-burkovskyi-decoding-prigozhins-rebellion/
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https://www.understandingwar.org/
June 26
Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on June 26 seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the Russian military and continue fighting against Ukraine and to cause individuals most loyal to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to self-identify. Putin continued to denounce the organizers of the armed rebellion as traitors. Putin thanked Russian society and the Russian security forces for defending Russia’s sovereignty and expressed gratitude to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for brokering negotiations with the perpetrators of the rebellion. Putin did not name Prigozhin specifically, but Putin’s speech leaves little room for any rapprochement with Prigozhin.
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Mutiny in Russia (Monday 25 June)
1 Now on the BBC
General: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Ukraine: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60525350
2 The above sources on Monday 25 June, 6am
Instability … pressure on Putin: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66015624
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Cracks in Putin authority: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66014141
What will Putin do next?: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66012906
24 hours of chaos: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66006880
Bitter rivalries: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66013532
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Russia and Ukraine
Russia, Tass … government:
operations in Ukraine: https://tass.com/defense/1638223
Serbia praises Putin: https://tass.com/world/1638215
Lukashenko and Putin: https://tass.com/world/1638167
US ambassador in Moscow: https://tass.com/world/1638165
Akhmat forces return: https://tass.com/military-operation-in-ukraine/1638161
M-4 Don highway runs as usual: https://tass.com/russia/1638157
http://government.ru/en/news/ :
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Ukraine, Kyiv Post … Kyiv Independent … president:
revolt halts but Putin weakened: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18700
https://kyivindependent.com/ :
Lukashenko-mediated deal: ISW report, see below
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https://www.understandingwar.org/
June 25
Russian sources speculated on the specifics of the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s June 23-24 armed rebellion, including the possible involvement of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chief of staff. Russian opposition outlet Meduza, citing unnamed internal Kremlin sources, reported that Prigozhin initially tried to get in touch with the Russian Presidential Administration midday June 24 as Wagner fighters moved north from Rostov-on-Don towards Moscow, but that Putin refused to speak with Prigozhin. Meduza noted that, once Prigozhin observed the lack of widespread military support for Wagner’s actions and changed his mind on Wagner’s prospects, the Kremlin turned to negotiations involving Lukashenko, Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Office Anton Vaino, and Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov. Vaino and Gryzlov’s possible involvement was not reported on June 24. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger also questioned whether the deal will hold Wagner or Prigozhin accountable in any way for the deaths of at least 13 Russian airman on June 24. Prigozhin’s whereabouts cannot be verified beyond his departure from Rostov-on-Don late on June 24. Russian outlet RTVI claimed that Prigozhin’s press service told RTVI that Prigozhin “sends his regards” and will answer all questions “when he is on normal communication,” and a prominent Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel shared an AI-generated image of Prigozhin holding a finger to his lips and stating “plans love silence,” a copy of the phrase commonly used in Ukraine about operational security. As ISW noted on June 24, the specifics of the deal are still unclear in the open source beyond speculation and rumor. The fallout of Wagner’s armed rebellion has not yet concluded, and it remains to be seen how the deal will be implemented, if all involved parties will comply fully, how the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) intend to do with Wagner personnel - and if Wagner fighters will cooperate, regardless of Prigozhin’s wishes.
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Mutiny in Russia (Sunday 24 June)
[1 Now on the BBC]
2 Wagner mercenary boss abandons mutiny and agrees to leave Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142 (Sunday)
3 Today’s Observer (Sunday)
“Has Putin’s hubris caught up with him at last? [editorial]
4 Yesterday’s Daily Mail (Saturday)
“Russia plunging into a civil war”
5 My Friday morning report …
… contained nothing to indicate a mutiny was about to occur
Ukraine 70 and World Society … also Positive Value 17
6 … although the enmity of Prigozhin towards the Moscow military has been a long-standing one.
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Russia, Tass … government:
Wagner crisis: https://tass.com/politics/1638003
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Ukraine, Kyiv Post … Kyiv Independent … president:
Wagner rebellion: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18680
Wagner: https://kyivindependent.com/latest-prigozhin-wagner-forces-launch-armed-rebellion-in-russia/
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/all
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https://www.understandingwar.org/
June 24
The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin will travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; some portion of Wagner Group fighters will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD); and no Wagner personnel will be charged for their involvement in an armed rebellion. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that Russian authorities will drop the criminal case against Prigozhin and that Prigozhin will go to Belarus, thanking Lukashenko for his role in mediating the deal with the “higher goal to avoid bloodshed.” Lukashenko’s press service earlier broke the news about the deal, reporting that Lukashenko negotiated with Prigozhin and claiming that Lukashenko and Putin agreed to undertake “bilateral actions” to resolve the crisis earlier in the day. Lukashenko stressed the importance of avoiding a ”bloody massacre” and ensuring security guarantees for Wagner fighters. Prigozhin released an audio message after the initial Belarusian report, claiming his “march for justice” achieved its goal and that he ordered Wagner forces back to their training grounds to prevent the situation from turning bloody (after Wagner forces already killed over a dozen Russian personnel). Prigozhin notably did not mention Lukashenko‘s involvement or the details of any negotiated deal in his own statement. The specifics of the deal, how and on what timeline it will be implemented, the expected outcomes for each party, and the extent to which all involved parties will follow the agreement, remain unclear at this time.
June 23
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed. Prigozhin amplified a video from a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on June 23 which reportedly shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear-area Wagner camp and accused the Russian MoD of conducting that strike. ISW cannot independently verify the veracity of the video, and it may have been manufactured for informational purposes. Prigozhin used the video to then justify his most explicit rhetorical escalation against the Russian MoD to date and a call for action against the Russian MoD. Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Commanders’ Council made the decision to stop “the evil brought by the military leadership” who neglect and destroy the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers. Prigozhin urged the Russian people not to resist, to remain calm, remain in their homes, and warned that Wagner will “deal” with those who destroyed Russian soldiers before returning to the frontlines in Ukraine after restoring justice for all. Prigozhin also notably accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of personally planning an operation to destroy Wagner and claimed that 25,000 Wagner personnel are prepared to act. Prigozhin later posted an audio message qualifying his previous statements and claiming that there is no “coup,” only a “march for justice.”
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THE END