West moving east; and east moving west … memories and histories
West moving east; and east moving west … memories and histories
Part 1
West moving east; and east moving west
Trump and Putin
The range of opinions, 17 March 2025
The value status of memories and histories
UK, France and Turkey: 1854 and 2025
Baltic: the book
From the Baltic to the Black Sea; St Petersburg and Sebastopol
Poland, 1612 and 2025
The front pages, weeks 7 to 9
Part 2
Ideas, actions and relationships … historiography
The truth status of memories
Ideas about the past
An imaginary aftermath of October 7 - an allegorical cameo for the novel
To Kill The Truth - the novel
The Island of Missing Trees – a novel
DeepSeek
Who did what when on October 7?
Reports, January-March 2025
Happiness and love: other positive
PART 1
West moving east; and east moving west
Two notions are in play: one is that Russia is moving west; and the other is that Nato is moving east. Nato is against Russia moving west; and Russia is against Nato moving east. These movements have taken place in recent times and there are fears for the future and plans to prevent or react to such movements. There has been a long history of such movements (involving various western countries).
Memories and histories of the past can be selective, sometimes focusing on the self, sometimes focusing on the negative, and in particular sometimes focusing on ‘self positive, other negative’. Thus there are different histories, in contrast to a notion of professional history – “history as truth-telling and, at least as an ideal, as free from bias” (A History of Histories, John Barrow, 20, p. xiv).
Trump and Putin
Trump talks to Putin
“Trump and Putin start Ukraine peace talks. Zelensky has ‘meaningful’ call with US president.” The Times, Thursday 13 February 2025: 1.
“Dealing with Russia. Talks this week may mark a turn in the rhetoric of East-West relations. Nothing will be achieved however, by overlooking the realities of Putin’s autocracy.” Editorial, The Times, 17 February 2025: 23.
Trump talks to Putin again
“No deal. Donald Trump has hailed his talk with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine as a success. But it is Russia’s president who holds the best cards and knows how to play them.” Editorial, The Times, 20 March 2025: 25.
In the final section of this report we give the front page headlines relating to Russia and Ukraine over the past three weeks. See also the earlier reports:
Y25.5 Trump talks to Putin … (1) Ukraine: from my archives
Trump talks to Putin … (1) Ukraine: from my archives
Y25.6 Trump week 6: UN; Macron, Stammer and Zelensky; Germany
Trump week 6: UN; Macron, Stammer and Zelensky; Germany
The range of opinions, 17 March 2025
The range of opinions that we have become familiar with in the Ukraine conflict all found expression in The Times on 17 March 2025.
“With all the high-level political talks it is perhaps helpful to be reminded of the perspective of those who have fought, suffered injuries and seen their mates die, of the grieving widows and of those who are refugees in their own country. For them a ceasefire or a peace settlement is not a transactional game to be played out through the egos of those in powerful positions. Their sacrifices have been for the sovereignty of their country as clearly as it was for us in the Second World War. They do not want their sacrifice to be betrayed by any settlement that rewards Putin or leaves Ukraine with anything less than full sovereignty. Equally it must not leave any possibility of the Russians returning in the future.”
Simon Edwards, Kalush, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast,
Letter to The Times, 17 March 2025: 20.
“Trump’s message to Kiev: don’t expect your land back.”
Mike Waltz: “a final peace accord would probably force Kyiv to concede “territory for future security guarantees”. ”
“Are we going to drive every Russian off every inch of Ukrainian soil, including Crimea? We … have to talk about the reality of the situation on the ground.”
The Times, 17 March 2025: 22-23.
“British troops could be kept in Ukraine for years to come. … to maintain a ceasefire and deter another invasion by Russia.” …
… “Russia has repeatedly said it will not accept a peacekeeping force in Ukraine.”
… “President Macron of France has said that Russia will have no say in the matter. ‘If Ukraine asks allied forces to be on its territory it is not up to Russia to accept or not.’”
The Times, 17 March 2025: 1.
“Starmer has been clear however that the UK will not commit troops without a security guarantee from the US …
… Trump has repeatedly refused to give such a guarantee …
… suggesting that economic imperatives – such as a mineral deal between the US and Ukraine – will be enough to deter Russia.”
The Times, 17 March 2025: 2.
And a week later:
“PM ‘posing’ on Ukraine says US envoy.”
The Times March 2024, 7.
Steve Witkoff: “Their [UK] entire military is smaller than the US Marine Corps. … Is that a posture? Is it a pose?”
“It’s in large part been about those five regions. There is a view within Russia that these are Russian territories, that there are referendums … that justify these actions.”
The value status of memories and histories
Do memories and histories contribute to the positive system or to the negative system? Of particular interest here is that memories and histories can refer to relationships characterised by ‘self positive, other negative’, in other words to conflictual relationships. If memories and histories focus on conflict then they may contribute to the negative system.
“The historian A. J. P. Taylor argued that the war [Crimea 19C] had resulted not from aggression, but from the interacting fears of the major players.”
Fears for the future can be accentuated by memories and histories of the past.
Russia: self positive, other negative
“History textbooks constantly refer to Russia as ‘us’ … as in ‘our Russian history’, ‘our mother Russia’ …
… History is all about ‘great Russia’ and how it’s always been under attack by others … They don’t teach us knowledge at school, but to hate other Ukrainians”
“The secret book club: teenagers dare to read on as Russian forces destroy banned texts.” The Observer, 23 March 2025: 28-29.
The Reckoning Project: https://www.thereckoningproject.com/
UK, France and Turkey: 1854 and 2025
“About half a dozen countries including the UK, France and Turkey… are discussing plans to send up to 30,000 troops to Ukraine.”
The Times, 17 March 2025: 1.
Not quite two centuries ago the UK, France and the Ottoman Empire sent troops to Crimea and laid siege to the Russian naval base in Sevastopol.
“As the Ottoman Empire steadily weakened during the 19th century [Serbian revolution 1804, Greek War of Independence 1821, etc.], the Russian Empire stood poised to take advantage by expanding southward. …
The historian A. J. P. Taylor argued that the war had resulted not from aggression, but from the interacting fears of the major players:
In some sense the Crimean War was predestined and had deep-seated causes. Neither Nicholas I nor Napoleon III nor the British government could retreat from the conflict for prestige once it was launched. Nicholas needed a subservient Turkey for the sake of Russian security; Napoleon needed success for the sake of his domestic position; the British government needed an independent Turkey for the security of the Eastern Mediterranean... Mutual fear, not mutual aggression, caused the Crimean War.[15]
… The Crimean war was fought for the sake of Europe rather than for the Eastern question; it was fought against Russia, not in favour of Turkey.... The British fought Russia out of resentment and supposed that her defeat would strengthen the European Balance of Power.[30]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War
Baltic: the book
Baltic. The Future of Europe. Oliver Moody. John Murray: 2025.
“One of Putin’s early acts as president was to establish the annual unity day commemorating the final expulsion of the Poles from Moscow’s territory in 1612. It attests to an enduring sense of unfinished business towards the Baltic region.
“How to prepare for Putin? Heed our friends in the Baltics. If western Europe can no longer rely on the transatlantic alliance it should look east to those states on the front line with Russia. They have long been among our best allies and it’s high time we listened to them closely. These countries are far better prepared for the radical instability and insecurity of the coming years than we are , and we have a great deal to learn from them.” The Times, March 8, 2025: 34-35. Oliver Moody.
Review: “Baltic breakaways: ‘a factory of the future’. Six countries are uniquely vulnerable to Russian aggression, but western leaders aren’t paying enough attention.” Edward Lucas. The Times, 15 March 2025: 13.
“Now Russian influence is surging again and Oliver Moody outlines ‘the return of the ancient struggle with Russia for mastery of the Baltic… The clash is between Baltic aspiration and Russian ambition. The collapse of the Soviet empire in 1991 allowed … Poland, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to join Nato and the European Union. They see that as normal. For Russians a geopolitical aberration is due for correction.”
Lucas cites Moody:
Tsarist Russia …
… partitioned Poland in 1795
… took Finland from Sweden in 1809;
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland regained statehood in 1918.
I had a quick look at the encyclopaedia: which countries had been controlled by which countries?
Estonia: 13C Danes and Livonian knights; 16C, 17C Sweden; 1721 Russia;
1918 independent; 1939 Soviet Union … Germany … Soviet Union … independent
Lithuania: “one of the largest states in medieval Europe; 14C Poland and Lithuania unite; 18C Russia;
1918 independent; 1939 Soviet Union … Germany … Soviet Union … independent
Latvia: 13C Livonian Knights; 16C Poland; 17C Sweden; 18C Russia;
1918 independent; 1939 Soviet Union … Germany … Soviet Union … independent
Kaliningrad: 1255 Teutonic Knights; 16C Prussia… Germany; 1945 Soviet Union
Poland: 10C; 14C Poland and Lithuania unite; 18C partitioned by Russia, Austria and Prussia; 1918 independence; 1939 Germany, Russia; 1945 Eastern bloc
Finland: Lapps, Finns; 12C Sweden … Sweden-Russia wars … 1809 Russia; 1917 independence; 1939 Soviet Union … 1944 … 1948 treaty with Russia
Sweden: Swedes, Goths; 14C union of Sweden, Denmark and Norway; 1523 independence; 1809 …1814 Norway and Sweden
Moody considers a scenario where Russia crosses the border into Estonia and quotes General Andrus Merilo, commander of the Estonian defence forces:
“If you have to defend Estonia you have to defend from the border, which means that the Russian artillery will be positioned in Russia and killing Estonians. So we have to be able to kill those artillery system at the very beginning of the aggression … any ammunition dump, command node or railway junction as far east as Moscow – and especially the naval bases at St Petersburg – would be considered fair game as Nato seeks to play one of its strongest cards: rapid air superiority … integrated mass air strike (IMVU).”
[note that Nato had strengthened its position in the Baltic in response to both 2014 and 2022.]
From the Baltic to the Black Sea; St Petersburg and Sebastopol
St Petersburg and Sebastopol are celebrated in music and literature: Tschaikovsky’s “1812 Overture” and Tennyson’s “The Charge of the Light Brigade” (Balaclava, Siege of Sevastopol, Crimea, 1854) …
Russia stretches from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Together Poland and Ukraine likewise. Belarus is landlocked in between, and Kaliningrad, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia run along up the Baltic coast.
Poland, 1612 and 2025
“President Duda told the Financial Times ‘The borders of Nato moved east in 1999, so 26 years later there should also be a shift of the Nato infrastructure east … I think it’s not only that the time has come but that it would be safer if those weapons were already there.”
“ ‘Bring US nuclear bombs to Poland as a deterrent.’ ” The Times, 14 March 2025: 27.
“One of Putin’s early acts as president was to establish the annual unity day commemorating the final expulsion of the Poles from Moscow’s territory in 1612.” The Times, March 8, 2025: 34-35. Oliver Moody.
4 November 2024
Today, the Russian Federation celebrates the National Unity Day. The state holiday was established in 2005 and is a day off.
Historically, the holiday is associated with 4 November (22 October O.S.) 1612. On this day the soldiers of the national militia led by Kuzma Minin and Dmitry Pozharsky stormed Kitay-gorod and drove the Poles out of Moscow. Prince Pozharsky entered Kitay-gorod with the Icon of Our Lady of Kazan. This victory served as a powerful impetus for the revival of the Russian state.
In the Soviet period, the holiday was 7 November, Day of the Great October Socialist Revolution, which was renamed the Day of Consent and Reconciliation in 1996. In 2004, 7 November was given the status of a memorable date - the October Revolution Day, and 4 November became the National Unity Day.
On this day, outdoor festivities, concerts, performances and sporting events take place all over the country. The main events dedicated to the holiday are held in Nizhny Novgorod and Moscow.
The Polish-Lithuanian occupation of Moscow:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Lithuanian_occupation_of_Moscow
The Polish- Russian War, 1609-1618:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Russian_War_(1609%E2%80%931618)
Unity Day:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unity_Day_(Russia)
Putin on Unity Day:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75487
The front pages, weeks 7 to 9
The front page, week 7
“Starmer seeks Ukraine ‘coalition of the willing’. Europe urged to provide peacekeeping troops. Talks on month-long ceasefire in air and sea.” The Times, Monday 3 March 2025: 1.”
“Trump lambasts Europe for showing weakness. President criticises demand for US security guarantee. Growing fears he will halt Ukraine aid.” The Times, Tuesday 4 March 2025: 1.
“We’re ready, Zelensky tells Trump. Ukraine president’s plea after talks with Starmer.” The Times, Wednesday 5 March 2025: 1.
“More people will die after US cuts, says Ukraine MP. Warning as Trump severs intelligence link. Starmer ready to go back to White House.” The Times, Thursday 6 March 2025: 1.
“Trump is ‘encouraged’ by Zelensky peace talk. US and Ukraine to discuss plan in Saudi Arabia.” The Times, Friday 7 March 2025: 1.
“Putin doing what anyone else would, says Trump. Russia ‘wants to end war’ despite fresh assault.” The Times, Saturday 6 March 2025: 1.
“Revealed: second Kremlin spy ring in UK.” The Observer, Sunday 9 March 2025: 1.
The front page, week 8
“Britain coaches Ukrainians before peace talks with US officials.” The Times, Monday 10 March 2025: 1.
“Kyiv open to ceasefire as trump restarts aid. US says hopes for peace lie in Russia’s hand.” The Times, Tuesday 11 March 2025: 1.
“Spend billions now to put UK on war footing, Starmer told.” The Times, Wednesday 12 March 2025: 1.
“Back peace or I’ll ruin you, Trump ells Putin. Pressure on Russia s Kyiv agrees ceasefire plan.
[Also]: Starmer racing to secure US deal before blanket tariffs kick in.” The Times, Thursday 13 March 2025: 1.
“Putin backs ceasefire in Ukraine but on his terms. Deal must not let Ukraine rearm, says Kremlin. Russian leader proposes direct call with Trump.” The Times, Friday 14 March 2025: 1.
“Starmer. Putin ‘not serious’ about peace deal in Ukraine.” The Times, Saturday 15 March 2025: 4.
“Starmer. Putin ‘dragging feet on ceasefire’.” The Observer, Sunday 16 March 2025: 4.2
The front page, week 9
“British troops could be kept in Ukraine for years to come.” The Times, Monday 17 March 2025: 1.
“Trump and Putin to discuss ‘dividing up’ spoils of Ukraine.” The Times, Tuesday 18 March 2025: page 2.
“Putin keeps ceasefire hopes on a knife edge. Russia pauses attacks* but demands frustrate Kyiv.” The Times, Wednesday 19 March 2025: 1.
.* but does not pause the ground fighting.
“Trump eyes takeover of Ukraine’s atomic sites. White House has moved beyond minerals deal.” The Times, Thursday 20 March 2025: 1.
“UK sends message to Putin about deterrent. We have the nuclear weapons to cause ‘untold damage’ if attacked, warns defence secretary.” The Times, Friday 21 March 2025: 1.
“American veterans fight and die in the fields of Ukraine.”
“How Putin flattered and deceived 5 US presidents.”
The Times, Saturday 22 March 2025: 41.
PART 2
Ideas, actions and relationships … historiography
Actions are driven by ideas; and actions prompt ideas. The interactions in a relationship relate to ideas about the relationship and about its interactions. A positive relationship is associated with positive ideas and positive actions. A negative
relationship is associated with negative ideas and negative actions.
The truth status of memories
“Julian Barnes: why I’ve changed my mind. The Booker-winning novelist on why our memories are not to be trusted.
We remember as true things that never even happened. The Booker-prize winning novelist reflects on the times in his life when recollection and imagination have intertwined … and wonders if we can ever rely on our brains to provide us with the truth.” The Observer, The New Review, 16 March 2025: 8
Memory is also a problem for babies!
“Baby years all in mind, even if we can’t recall them.” The Times, 21 March 2025: 17.
https://news.yale.edu/2025/03/20/why-dont-we-remember-being-baby-new-study-provides-clues
Nick Turk-Browne: https://psychology.yale.edu/people/nick-turk-browne
Ideas about the past
What is the truth about the past? Is it a good thing to know the truth about the past? How good is our knowledge about the past and is that knowledge under threat? In what follows an imaginary outline for a novel is presented in order to illustrate the plot of Sam Bourne’s novel To Kill The Truth.
An imaginary aftermath of October 7 - an allegorical cameo for the novel
On October 7 the atrocity was committed. What the response to the atrocity should be was debated and a reprisal was planned. Then the sun set. During the night all paper records of the atrocity were destroyed, all digital records were destroyed and all people’s brains were wiped clean of memory of the atrocity. Dawn broke. It was as if the atrocity had never happened. There was peace. And justice was never done for the atrocity.
To Kill The Truth - the novel
This novel has the same abstract plot as the above cameo. Historians of atrocities are murdered. Slavery … the Holocaust. A denier of slavery is on trial. The major libraries of the world are burned. Electronic records are destroyed. “This is a book about the truth, and while it is fiction much of it is rooted in fact.”
To Kill The Truth. Someone is rewriting history … One death at a time. Sam Bourne. Quercus: 2019. 449-450.
https://www.quercusbooks.co.uk/titles/sam-bourne/to-kill-the-truth/9781787474925/
The novel refers to the following:
“The Passion of Solomon Northup.” Eric Herschthal, New York Times, 6 November 2013.
https://archive.nytimes.com/opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/11/06/the-passion-of-solomon-northup/
In Praise of Forgetting. David Rieff. 2016.
https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300227109/in-praise-of-forgetting/
“Safe House.” The Guardian, 14 May 2011. Jonathan Freedland.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/may/14/holocaust-survivors-centre-freedland
[computer-generated JFK speech]
[pentester Jek Hyde]
https://x.com/hydens33k/status/920323382759034882
Nothing Is True and Everything is Possible. Peter Pomerantsev.
https://www.faber.co.uk/product/9780571338528-nothing-is-true-and-everything-is-possible/
The Island of Missing Trees – a novel
The Island of Missing Trees is a novel by Elif Shafak. Like Romeo and Juliet it is about love across a conflict divide – between a Greek Cypriot and a Turkish Cypriot. It follows three generations over more than half a century. What should the younger generation know? Would the history be a burden?
DeepSeek
“We tried out DeepSeek. It worked well, until we asked it about Tiananmen Square and Taiwan.”
Wikipedia:
Tiananmen Square
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Tiananmen_Square_protests_and_massacre
Taiwan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan
Who did what when on October 7?
The other day in the Coop I happened to notice the Daily Telegraph headline:
“Pro-Palestine activists were planning London march as October 7 massacre unfolded.”
The article provides some details of a variety of events which were happening at that time. News coverage following the ceasefire contained some footage which I had not seen before. At the time different news outlets were reporting different accounts. My memory of the Observer front page of October 8, 2023, was of a Palestinian waving a flag above a captured Israeli tank. Yes, here it is:
.* “Hundreds die and hostages held as Hamas attack shocks Israel”:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/07/israel-strikes-back-after-massive-palestinian-attack .
.* “Hamas terrorists butcher civilians as stunned Israel suffers ‘9/11 moment’ “
https://www.thepaperboy.com/uk/the-sunday-telegraph/front-pages-today.cfm?frontpage=72328
.* “Hostages dragged from homes in Israel as families flee slaughter.”
https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/sunday-times-front-page-2023-10-08/
Whereas The Observer photo is about a Hamas military capture of an Isrraeli tank the photos in the other two papers are about Israeli civilian victims. Headline notes two hundred Israelis killed and two hundred Palestinians killed.
.* Note that this is the Sunday morning paper after the Saturday attack.
Reports, January-March 2025
Y25.1 A good year … the distribution of value in society
A good year … the distribution of value in society (15 pages)
Y25.2 A good year: the distances between Democrats and Republicans … and Independents … and All
A good year: the distances between Democrats and Republicans … and Independents … and All (16 pages)
Y25.3 USA power: self and other; positive and negative
USA power: self and other; positive and negative
Y25.4 St Valentine’s Day: loving others … living with others
St Valentine’s Day: loving others … living with others
Y25.5 Trump talks to Putin … (1) Ukraine: from my archives
Trump talks to Putin … (1) Ukraine: from my archives
Y25.6 Trump week 6: UN; Macron, Stammer and Zelensky; Germany
Trump week 6: UN; Macron, Stammer and Zelensky; Germany
Y25.7 Trump talks to Putin again … from the Baltic to the Black Sea
Happiness and love: other positive
“Happiness isn’t just about wealth or growth, it’s about trust, connection and knowing people have your back.” Jon Clifton.
“Happiness is believing your lost wallet will be returned.” The Times, 21 March 2025: 1.
World Happiness Report 2025.
https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2025/
The incidence of Christmas on the distribution of love in society
https://sites.google.com/view/values-world-society-modelling/w/36
Links
Loving the self, but not the other … USA election and religion.
Love China, Love USA … “no suggestion of wrongdoing”
Two chapters
Relationships: family and friends, care and therapy, nurturing and flourishing
Gender: culture and psychology; literacy and education.
THE END