Trump week 6:
UN; Macron, Stammer and Zelensky; Germany
Trump week 6:
UN; Macron, Stammer and Zelensky; Germany
Trump week 6: UN; Macron, Stammer and Zelensky; Germany
Introduction … USA power: self and other; positive and negative
Trump’s inauguration
Trump’s speech to Congress this week
AFPI Salutes President Trump’s Renewal of the American Dream
Trump approval ratings in the USA
Briefly, Trump weeks 4 and 5: Trump talks to Putin …
… historical analogies
Trump week 6, 24 February – 2 March 2025:
… UN; Macron, Stammer and Zelensky; Germany
… The front page, week 6
… Editorials, week 6
Briefly, Trump week 7: military aid is stopped; trade war
Information sources in the USA
A conceptual framework …
… World society … positive and negative subsystems
… The almost-zero global military expenditure theorem
Reports, January-February 2025
Introduction … USA power: self and other; positive and negative
Trump, tariffs and taxes (and indeed anything else) all have direct effects and indirect effects - and ultimately final effects. So what might be the final effects of Trump on social value? So far some of the effects are positive - and some of the effects are negative. Trump has pleased some people and displeased others.
Thus in Congress Republicans were pleased with Trump while Democrats were displeased - just as the American public are evenly divided between those having favourable opinions about Trump and those having unfavourable opinions. ‘America First’ has a positive view of some aspects of America but has a negative view of other aspects of America.
Outside the USA, Trump’s government has pleased Russia with its approach to the war in Ukraine but has shown displeasure with Ukraine and Europe and to a lesser extent with the UK. Trump has displeased Canada, Mexico and China, with its tariffs, - and displeased the stockmarkets.
Overall there is a pattern in Trump relationships of Trump/USA being positive towards the self and negative towards the other, with Trump/USA power empowering this approach.
USA power: self and other; positive and negative
Not discussed here is a different relationship pattern whereby the self is positive to the self; and also positive to the other. Some brief remarks by Joe Biden just after the election discuss this pattern.
Trump is not always negative towards the other. For example he appeared to have warm positive meetings with Macron and Stammer. His most controversial action was his meeting with Putin and his subsequent positive remarks. If Russia is regarded as an enemy then this would appear to be a case of loving your enemy (or at least going some way towards that).
Trump’s inauguration
Donald Trump became president on Monday 20 January 2025.
“ ‘The golden age starts now’. Trump announces sweeping changes to immigration and economy. Biden issues pardons to close family as last act.”
The Times, 21 January 2025.
Trump’s speech to Congress this week
Trump gave a speech to Congress on Tuesday 4 March 2025. Republicans gave him a standing ovation while Democrats glumly remained seated – reflecting the divided public opinion reported in a later section.
“Trump dismisses pleas on tariffs after divisive Congress speech.”
“No shortage of theatrics in longest Capitol address yet.”
The Times, 6 March 2025: 28-29.
AFPI Salutes President Trump’s Renewal of the American Dream
Washington, D.C. – Leading with a flurry of rapid results and a broad vision for American renewal, President Donald Trump tonight addressed the American People and Congress with a tally of America First wins and his bold vision for the future.
“President Trump’s speech tonight was an absolute home run,” said America First Policy Institute (AFPI) Chief Spokesperson Jenn Pellegrino. “Much like his Inaugural Address in January, the President made clear that his number one priority is, and always will be, the safety and prosperity of the American people. His determination to take on headfirst the establishment media, the left, and global elites is nothing short of inspiring, including his launching of DOGE which has exposed systemic waste, fraud, and abuse. America simply could not have survived four more years of open borders, runaway spending, and hateful pseudo-ideologies that infected our public discourse. This is what a true leader looks like – patriotic, optimistic, and filled with unlimited energy. The American Renewal is upon us.” March 4, 2025.
https://americafirstpolicy.com/issues/afpi-salutes-president-trumps-renewal-of-the-american-dream
America First Policy Institute
https://americafirstpolicy.com/
Trump approval ratings in the USA
In recent months approval and disapproval have been roughly the same – net approval is close to zero - and there has been little change. What little change there has been has been that there are fewer undecided and they have tended to become disapproving.
.(1) On January 29, 2025,
49.4% approved of Donald Trump and 43.2% disapproved, a plus score of 6.2%.
On February 28, 2025,
47.9% approved of Donald Trump and 47.2% disapproved, a plus score of 0.7%.
On March 4, 2025,
47.9% approved of Donald Trump and 47.6% disapproved, a plus score of 0.3%.
[Election: Donald Trump 49.7%; Kamala Harris 48.3%.]
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/
methodology:
https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-approval-polling-average-works/story?id=117999010
It is important to conceptualise opinion in terms of an underlying distribution of opinion:
A good year … the distribution of value in society (15 pages)
A good year: the distances between Democrats and Republicans … and Independents … and All (16 pages)
Briefly, Trump weeks 4 and 5: Trump talks to Putin …
“The front page (13-23 February 2025)
In the preceding fortnight Trump had appeared only three times on the front page of The Times, firstly in relation to the plane crash in the Potomac (1) and secondly in relation to the trade war (2). Then it started:
“Trump and Putin start Ukraine peace talks. Zelensky has ‘meaningful’ call with US president.” The Times, Thursday 13 February 2025: 1.”
Extract from my previous report:
Trump talks to Putin … (1) Ukraine: from my archives
Whereas Biden’s USA had been negative towards Russia, the peace talks seemed to indicate Trump adopting a more positive approach towards Russia.
… historical analogies
Trump talking to Putin evoked a number of historical analogies. In terms of relations between superpowers it evoked Reagan and Gorbachev or Nixon in China. In relation to Europe it evoked Chamberlain in Munich in relation to Czechoslovakia in 1938, or Hitler and Stalin, or Yalta.
Back in 2014, Finkelstein had called not to repeat Yalta. I quoted this at the time in a brief overview of the History of Ukraine, west-east and north-south - see pages 164-169 of the chapter below. The history is one of repeated boundary changes, and I note that the current boundaries between the countries of Belarus, Ukraine and Poland is an approximation of the Curzon Line after the First World War. (p. 166).
The chapter:
Ukraine: united or divided? West and East; living with others: pages 148-174
The Munich analogy has been challenged by Matthew Parris:
“Keep calm, this isn’t another Munich sell-out. Putin’s no Hiter, Trump’s no Chamberlain and Zelensky’s no angel: there was always going to be compromise on Ukraine. Russia’s economy is dire, hit by the falling price of oil and gas. Ukrainians are not sentimental when it comes to Zelensky.” The Times. 17 February 2025: 19:
“The eventual compromise that could save and secure Ukraine should have been clear for years to any sane commentator. I’m baffled that the media should draw up our skirts in horror at Trump’s suggestion that Kyiv should not expect to regain the territory it lost to Putin. I’m far from the only Times columnist to pour scorn on Boris Johnson’s cruelly irresponsible “not an inch” exhortations to Volodymir Zelensky. Starting almost exactly two years ago I have written half a dozen columns saying as much. Sometimes you have to keep repeating the obvious until the world wakes up to it.”
The letters which followed did not agree: Parris “demonstrates little understanding of Russia”; he “denigrates Ukraine as an eternal borderland”; and “appeasement by any other name is still appeasement”. On the other hand another writer said “Britain and other European allies are continuing to make commitments that they can ill afford to give.”
The Times. 18 February 2025: 20.
Trump week 6 (24 February – 2 March 2025): UN; Macron, Stammer and Zelensky; Germany
In the sixth week of Trump’s presidency, there were debates at the UN, meetings with Macron, Stammer and Zelensky at the Oval Office and an election in Germany. At the UN, the USA shocked the West by voting with Russia. The Macron and Stammer encounters appeared warm but the Trump-Zelensky meeting was a disaster. Elections in Germany showed an increase in support for the far right AfD. Starmer announced an increase in defence spending to 2.55 of GDP funded by a reduction in international aid.
The front page, week 6
“Starmer and Macron unite to send Trump message on Ukraine.” The Times, Monday 24 February 2025: 1.”
“Trump invites Zelensky to secure peace in weeks. President says Putin will accept role for European troops. Hints that Britain won’t escape tariffs.” The Times, Tuesday 25 February 2025: 1.”
“Zelensky will sign deal with US over minerals. Presidents to meet in Washington to sign accord. Starmer pledges to boost UK military spending.” The Times, Wednesday 26 February 2025: 1.”
“We need you to hold back Putin, PM tells Trump. Starmer flies to US with appeal for military help.” The Times, Thursday 27 February 2025: 1.”
“Trump: We’ll end war and strike trade deal with UK. Offer to spare Britain tariffs could happen ‘quickly’. President prepares for second state visit.” The Times, Friday 28 February 2025: 1.”
“Meltdown in Oval Office. Trump tells Zelensky he is risking World War Three. Make a deal or we’re out – and say thank you, demand Americans.” The Times, Saturday March 2025: 1.”
“Royal welcome for Zelensky after White house meltdown. Starmer offers unwavering support. EU leaders hold crisis talks in London.” The Observer, 2 March 2025: 1.
Editorials, week 6
The editorials urge higher defence spending in UK and Europe. They refer to Putin’s autocracy. They note divergence from the USA and challenge Trump’s criticism of Zelensky’s Ukraine and indicate the threat of being let down by the USA.
“Slava Ukraini. As Ukraine marks the anniversary of its full-scale invasion by Russia, Europe must stand firm in defence of its ally.” 24:25.
“Zeitenwende. Germany has shifted radically to the right on the back of fears about unbridled immigration, a stagnant economy and America’s disengagement from Europe.” 25:25.
“Unholy alliance. America’s siding with Russia, Belarus and North Korea in a United Nations vote on Ukraine defies belief. But Britain and Europe must adapt to this grim new reality.” 26:27.
“Channel Ernie. As he meets Donald Trump in Washington, Keir Starmer must remember Labour’s legendary foreign secretary Ernest Bevin, who played a tough hand well when in DC.” 27:27.
“Bang for buck. Labour’s increase in defence spending is welcome. But unless it is accompanied by a radically improved approach to weapons buying much of the money will be wasted.” 28:29.
“Great TV for Putin. The future of a peace deal for Ukraine has been thrown into doubt following a public row between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House.” The Times, Saturday 1 March 2025: 25.”
“Trump-Zelensky clash. A moment of dark reckoning for Europe.” The Observer, 2 March 2025: 1.
UK Daily Mail
“Now stop state visit for bully Trump”
Briefly, Trump week 7, March 3 – March 9: military aid stopped; trade war
Trump stops military aid and intelligence to Ukraine. Europe rallies round Zelensky. USA and Ukraine seeking to repair relations and resume peace talks. Trump initiates a trade war against major trading partners, Mexico, Canada and China. The stockmarket reacts and revisiting of tariffs.
Ukraine: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cg70jylp32gt
Tariffs: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y03qleevvo
Information sources in the USA: Trump-Zelensky in the Oval Office
The various sources provided the essential points about the exchanges.
petulant Zelensky
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/victor-davis-hanson-10-bad-takeaways-from-zelenskyy-blow-up
disgraceful: Trump tried to humiliate
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/disgraceful-foreign-policy-spectacle-in-us-history/
Opinion
The Hill
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5169839-trump-zelensky-meeting-devastating/
Newspapers
https://www.nytimes.com/international/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/01/us/politics/brian-glenn-zelensky-suit.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/03/02/donald-trump-state-visit-uk/81059051007/
https://www.thenation.com/ disgraceful: Trump tried to humiliate
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/disgraceful-foreign-policy-spectacle-in-us-history/
The above has a link to the Trump-Zelensky Oval Office discussion.
Television
https://www.foxnews.com/ petulant Zelensky
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/victor-davis-hanson-10-bad-takeaways-from-zelenskyy-blow-up
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/watch-zelenskyy-trump-meeting-oval-office-ukraine-minerals-deal/
Research
A conceptual framework …
The discussion of the current situation in my recent reports has covered a variety of topics. What follows is a conceptual framework within which these various topics might be placed. A common feature is negative initiation and negative reciprocation.
… World society … positive and negative subsystems
World society is a system with positive and negative systems as subsystems. Links between subsystems allow us to talk about the global positive system and the global negative system. Positive systems are maintained by positive reciprocation and negative systems are maintained by negative reciprocation. Negative initiation provides a switch from positive to negative; and positive initiation provides a switch from negative to positive.
A complication of the binary divide between positive and negative is given by different levels of positivity and different levels of negativity. Initiation (either positive or negative) provides a switch between levels. The nature of a system at a more detailed level can also be studied. The system can be viewed as a production and consumption system – the production and consumption of positivity, or the production and consumption of negativity – the ‘better angels’ of positive systems and the ‘darker angels’ of negative systems (see below).
Mathematics provides models of the abstract features of systems. Equations provide models of system interactions. There are positive reciprocation models and negative reciprocation models which can exhibit virtuous circles and vicious circles respectively. Game theory also provides models of reciprocation, cooperation or non-cooperation, perhaps the best-known case being the Prisoner’s Dilemma, locked into a negative system.
There are different categories of negative system. One category is that of violence systems, an analysis of which is provided by Steven Pinker in his book The Better Angels of Our Nature. The Historic Decline of Violence – see also the critics of Pinker and their Darker Angels.
One subsystem of the global violence system is the global military system – a negative system. There is arms production and arms deployment. Both aspects exhibit strong negative reciprocation. The essential features of the former are well captured by Lewis Fry Richardson’s model of the arms race. The same model can be applied to the negative reciprocation which characterises war. Key variables the model are the level of arms production and the level of war violence, respectively. Underlying both are the coefficients of the equations which refer to notions of the positive self and the negative other. The logic is that of the Prisoner’s Dilemma, and in the more general international relations literature the security dilemma.
In the economy, a trade war has the characteristics of negative initiation and negative reciprocation.
… the almost-zero global military expenditure theorem
Consider the notion of the global distribution of military expenditure. Consider a particular distribution D. Suppose this distribution has a distribution of value V, associated it. We now introduce a hypothesis about the relationship between the military expenditure distribution and the associated value distribution.
Result 1
If D has a total expenditure T, then kD has a total expenditure kT.
Hypothesis
If a military expenditure distribution D has an associated value distribution V, then the military expenditure distribution kD has an associated value distribution V (unchanged), for any k>0.
Result 2 (from hypothesis)
For any distribution D with total expenditure T and value V, the same value V can be obtained by a distribution zD with almost zero total expenditure zT, where z is non-zero but zero to the zth decimal place.
In Result 2 the distribution D might be taken to the existing distribution or perhaps some ideal distribution – either a subjective ideal or a collective absolute ideal.
The almost-zero distribution is the joint cooperative case but there is the usual prisoner’s dilemma of an incentive not to cooperate and incur a worse outcome.
[to be continued]
Reports, January-February 2025
Y25.1 A good year … the distribution of value in society
A good year … the distribution of value in society (15 pages)
Y25.2 A good year: the distances between Democrats and Republicans … and Independents … and All
A good year: the distances between Democrats and Republicans … and Independents … and All (16 pages)
Y25.3 USA power: self and other; positive and negative
USA power: self and other; positive and negative
Y25.4 St Valentine’s Day: loving others … living with others
St Valentine’s Day: loving others … living with others
Y25.5 Trump talks to Putin … (1) Ukraine: from my archives
Trump talks to Putin … (1) Ukraine: from my archives
The incidence of Christmas on the distribution of love in society
https://sites.google.com/view/values-world-society-modelling/w/36
Links
Loving the self, but not the other … USA election and religion.
Love China, Love USA … “no suggestion of wrongdoing”
Two chapters
Relationships: family and friends, care and therapy, nurturing and flourishing
Gender: culture and psychology; literacy and education.
THE END