1 Introduction/overview
2 World population … life expectancy
3 A better world? … the trajectory of world society
4 The number of conflicts … the conflict rate
5 The number of states
6 Colonial wars, decolonisation, recolonisation
7 Power and the European System
The European system and countries’ distribution on the European dimension
The United Nations … the permanent members of the UN Security Council
Soft power and the European dimension
The Great Game … the Scramble for Africa
8 The British Empire
The retreat from Empire
Rule Britannia … the last night of the Proms
From Empire to Commonwealth
The Commonwealth games
9 Scotland’s Independence Referendum 2014 …
… Alex Salmond
1 Introduction/overview
These last two weeks I have been using this year’s PRIO report in order to investigate Steven Pinker’s claim that there has been a decline of violence. A key equation is:
number of battle deaths = battle death rate x number of people … [1]
This week I continue these investigations. A useful starting point is to look at a quite different issue, namely the deaths from all causes in the world population as a whole. The following equation is a generalisation of [1]:
number of deaths = death rate x number of people … [1a]
Here it is indisputable that there has been a decline of the death rate – and a corresponding increase in life expectancy (accompanied by an increase in population).
This finding illustrates a general point that Pinker makes: lots of other things besides violence are also getting better – it is a better world than it used to be (at least in some respects).
Returning now to violence, the PRIO report looks not only at the number of deaths but also at the number of conflicts. Analogous to equation [1] we have:
number of conflicts = conflict rate x number of conflict entities … [2]
With the phrase ‘conflict entities’ we are mainly thinking of states. This prompts the question, how has the number of states changed over time? The PRIO report covers the period 1946-2023 and in that time the number of states has increased fourfold.
The number of states fluctuates with colonial wars, decolonisation and recolonisation - expressions of power in the European System and its empires. The focus turns to recent events still bearing the imprint of the British Empire. Within Britain there has been the debate about independence for Scotland, which returns to the news with the death of Alex Salmond yesterday.
2 World population … life expectancy
A useful starting point is world population. Although the details are complicated the basic point is that population continues to increase. In the period 1945-2020 the world population has more than tripled. It was 2.2 billion in 1945; 3.7 billion in 1970; 4.9 billion in 1985; and 7.9 billion in 2020.
You can watch the babies being born and the people dying (in abstract) at:
“Births today 155,300; deaths today 72,709”
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/
[An aside: notice that the 72,209 “deaths today” is very roughly half of the 154,900 annual conflict deaths for 2023 reported in the PRIO report. So conflict deaths are a very small part of all deaths.]
The population may be growing but are people living longer? Yes they are – see Table.
Table Life expectancy, 1750-2001
. 1770s 1820s 1890s 1920s 2001
Europe 34.3 76.8
Oceania [22.5; 45.6] 74.6
Americas 34.8 73.2
Asia 27.5 67.1
Ex SU 29.0 66.6
Africa 26.4 50.5
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00083.x
Riley, J. C. Rising Life Expectancy: A Global History (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001).
Life expectancy, 1950-2024 … 2000-2024 … 2016-2024
In the period 1950 to 2024 life expectancy has increased from …
46.4 in 1950 to
66.4 in 2000 to
71.6 in 2015 to
71.9 in 2020 to
73.3 in 2024.
https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/
Notice the minimal improvement in 2015 to 2020 (due to COVID?) and the subsequent somewhat greater improvement in the period 2020 to 2024. The following more detailed list highlights the change wrought by COVID in 2019 and the subsequent slight improvement:
71.7 in 2016
72.0 in 2017
72.5 in 2018
72.6 in 2019 COVID
72.8 in 2020
72.8 in 2021
73.0 in 2022
73.2 in 2023
73.3 in 2024
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN
Reaching a limit?
However this increase in life expectancy may not continue to be the case in the future:
“Increases in life expectancy may have reached their limit.” The Times, October 8 2024: 8 …
… Jay Olshansky in the journal Nature Aging:
Abstract. Over the course of the twentieth century, human life expectancy at birth rose in high-income nations by approximately 30 years, largely driven by advances in public health and medicine. Mortality reduction was observed initially at an early age and continued into middle and older ages. However, it was unclear whether this phenomenon and the resulting accelerated rise in life expectancy would continue into the twenty-first century. Here using demographic survivorship metrics from national vital statistics in the eight countries with the longest-lived populations (Australia, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland) and in Hong Kong and the United States from 1990 to 2019, we explored recent trends in death rates and life expectancy. We found that, since 1990, improvements overall in life expectancy have decelerated. Our analysis also revealed that resistance to improvements in life expectancy increased while lifespan inequality declined and mortality compression occurred. Our analysis suggests that survival to age 100 years is unlikely to exceed 15% for females and 5% for males, altogether suggesting that, unless the processes of biological aging can be markedly slowed, radical human life extension is implausible in this century.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-024-00702-3
Also: “The billion-dollar ageing bet that matures in 2150.”
The Times, October 12, 2024: 24.
3 A better world? … the trajectory of world society
What is the trajectory of world society? Is the world getting better? Seven years ago in my 2017 yearbook I said that it was. Steven Pinker said that it was. Barak Obama said that it was – and so did a number of others. Looking at a variety of indicators, most of them seemed to indicate improvement over time.
GO TO
Is the world getting better?
Since 2017 the mood has become less positive due to events like COVID and violence in Ukraine and the Middle East and tensions in the Asia. So the current mood is gloomy. But what does the evidence say? The finding in the previous section is indisputable: there has been a decline of the death rate – and a corresponding increase, albeit slowly in recent years, in life expectancy (and also an accompanying increase in population). So at least in one respect the world has got better between 2017 and 2024.
4 The number of conflicts … the conflict rate
Returning now to the subject of violence, the PRIO report looks not only at the number of deaths but also at the number of conflicts. Analogous to equation [1] we have:
number of conflicts = conflict rate x number of conflict entities … [2]
Number of conflicts. The PRIO report covers the period 1946-2023. The Executive summary reports that there were 59 state-based conflicts in 2023, and looking at Figure 1, the number of conflicts in 1946 was 17(?). So the number of conflicts increased by a factor of 3.5 in that period.
Number of states. With the phrase ‘conflict entities’ we are mainly thinking of states. This prompts the question, how has the number of states changed over time? The PRIO report covers the period 1946-2023 and in that time the number of states has increased roughly fourfold- from about 50? to about 200?.
Conflict rate. So the conflict rate has declined somewhat from 0.350? (17/50) to 0.295? (59/200) conflicts per state.
In summary the number of states has increased and the number of conflicts has increased, but the latter has risen slightly slower than the former and so the conflict rate has declined somewhat.
PRIO report, Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2023. Figure 1 (section 2.1, page 9). https://www.prio.org/publications/14006.
5 The number of states
The trajectory of the number of states is an important feature of world history and reflects a mix of acts of independence and acts of incorporation, volatility reflecting tensions in the system of states. (See Chapter 8 in the 2014 Yearbook).
6 Colonial conflict, decolonisation, recolonisation
Colonial conflict …
The PRIO report identifies four types of state-based armed conflict: colonial conflict, inter-state conflict, civil conflict and internationalized civil conflict. Colonial conflict is present in the period 1946-1973 but is absent thereafter.
PRIO report, Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2023. Figure 1 (section 2.1, page 9). https://www.prio.org/publications/14006.
… decolonisation – new independent states
Figure 1 in the PRIO report refers to the time period 1946-2023. Over this period the number of states increased fourfold from about 50 to about 200.This major expansion occurred as a result of countries gaining independence from the European empires and later the disintegration of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.
Recolonisation – loss of states - incorporation
Total battle deaths in 2023 are dominated by those in Ukraine and in the Middle East.
The Ukraine war can be seen as Russia’s attempt at recolonisation, recreating the greater Russia of the Russian empire after the collapse and disintegration of the Soviet Union.
“Russia accused of dirty tricks to stop pro-western vote. Moldova battles Kremlin lies as it chooses a new future.” The Times, October 12, 2024: 40.
“How the Kremlin is trying to hijack Moldova’s election with dirty money.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia
With the British Mandate for Palestine 1918-1948, the zenith of the British Empire was reached and the withdrawal of the British from there was the beginning of decolonisation and the end of Empire. Can the subsequent series of wars in the region and the series of expansions of territorial control by an Israel in alliance with Britain and the USA be seen as a kind of latent recolonisation?
“Israeli one-state solution would take terrible toll.
Military victors have often seized land and imposed an uneasy stability but annexing the West Bank would be different. Expulsions resolved an issue that dogged Europe for centuries … Many Israelis are clear of their historic destiny within a Greater Israel.”
The Times, October 12 2024: 25. Max Hastings.
Aluf Benn in Foreign Affairs:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/israel-paradox-defeat-aluf-benn
The debate with Howard Jacobson
Tales of infanticide … Howard Jacobson
Don’t let old hatreds hide Israel’s cruelty … Louise Adler
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/13/howard-jacobson-gaza-israel-cruelty-louise-adler
Dead children were no props … Letters to the Observer
https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2024/oct/13/dead-children-were-no-props
Italy 1944 and Germany 1945
Keith Lowe. Naples 1944. War, Liberation and Chaos. William Collins. 2024.
“Naples ’44 – the disaster of liberation.” The Times, October 12 2024. Saturday Review. 13
R M Douglas. Orderly and Humane. Yale Books. 2012
https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300198201/orderly-and-humane/
7 Power and the European System
Postscript
The Times, October 15, 2024.
British empire
“ ‘Debate’ on empire more like prosecution statement.” 3
“Reparations for slavery ‘are not on the agenda’.” 9
European system
“Russia and China ‘fill gap left by BBC’.” 13.
“The next big battlefield will be in our minds.
Cognitive warfare, as practised by Russia and Chian, could fatally weaken the West – we must step up efforts to combat it.
… An all-out assault on truth. A sustained effort to create mayhem … A modern adversary might not attack us with tanks and aircraft …” William Hague. 23
Israel and Jews
“Anti-Zionism a protected view, judge rules after professor sacked.” 19
“Columbus is evil now – so suddenly he’s Jewish.” Giles Coren. 24
The European system and countries’ distribution on the European dimension
The European system refers to the way in which European countries appear with leading roles in a variety of spheres of world society. Note that Russia is a European country (in part). Other countries are to varying degrees European. There is a European dimension with countries being located along it.
The United Nations … the permanent members of the UN Security Council
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council
The five permanent members of the UN Security Council are USA, UK, France, Russia and China. Four of the five members are high on the European dimension.
Since the UN’s founding in 1945 the territorial specification of all five has changed. In 1945 China was represented by the Republic of China but since 1971 this has been replaced by the People’s Republic of China. In 1945 Russia was represented by the Soviet Union but since 1991 this has been replaced by the Russian Federation. The French Fourth Republic involving the French Union (Metropolitan France; old colonies; new colonies; associated states – including French Indochina and Vietnamese capitals Hanoi and Saigon; and UN Trust Territories) was replaced by the French Fifth Republic in 1958. The USA admitted Alaska and Hawaii as states in 1959.
Soft power and the European dimension
“Britain slips down ‘soft power’ table for educating world leaders.” The Times, October 10, 2024: 11.
Countries’ location on the Higher Education Policy Institute soft power dimension is related to their position on the European dimension. Nine of the top eleven countries are European. All except Switzerland have had empires in the twentieth century. The other two have a high score on the European dimension. King Charles is the head of state of Australia … as was in earlier times King George III head of state of the North American colonies until the American War of Independence!
The top four are permanent members of the UN Security Council. The top two and the fifth-equal are English-speaking.
Table The number of world leaders educated in USA etc – that is in countries other than their own
USA 70;
UK 58;
France 28;
Russia 10;
Australia, Belgium and Spain 7;
Germany, Italy and Switzerland 6;
Netherlands 5.
“In 2024, both the US and the UK are far ahead of every other country, benefiting from their strong university systems and their international connections as well as having English as the most common language.
France remains in third place, having educated 28 leaders (-2 on 2023). This is France’s worst performance since the Soft Power Index began in 2017 but the country remains comfortably ahead of Russia in fourth place (on 10, the same as last year).
Australia, Belgium and Spain tie for fifth place, having educated seven senior world leaders apiece.
Germany, Italy, Switzerland have educated six world leaders each, while the Netherlands has educated five.
The research for this project was conducted in August, as in past years, so any very recent change in leadership will not be captured.”
The Great Game … the Scramble for Africa
The young man next me on the train had been born in Afghanistan and the family had come over at the time of the internal strife following the departure of the Soviet Union.
The Great Game was a rivalry between the 19th-century British and Russian empires over influence in Central Asia, primarily in Afghanistan, Persia, and Tibet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Game
Later on in my journey, English was the second language of the taxi driver taking me home – he was from Cote d’Ivoire.
The Scramble for Africa was the conquest and colonisation of most of Africa by seven Western European powers … the era of "New Imperialism" (1833–1914): Belgium, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, Portugal and Spain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scramble_for_Africa
Tajikistan: “a new chapter of the Great Game …
… is playing out among powers vying for influence in central Asia.” Russia, China, USA and UK.
“China in the driving set with ‘electric silk road’.” The Times, October 14, 2024: 32.
8 The British Empire
“Charles won’t stand in the way if Australians want a republic.” 11
“Spain’s threat on Gibraltar raises tension.” 2
“Gobsmacking march of TV ‘Britishisms’.” 17
The Times, October 12, 2024.
“Retreat from empire”
“Colonel David Hanson …
… was typical of the unshowy line infantry officers who did the army’s “heavy lifting” during the retreat from Empire and 38 bruising years holding the ring in Northern Ireland.”
The obituary mentions Hanson’s stationing in the Suez Canal Zone (1952); counter-terrorist operations in Malaya; Anglo-French occupation of the Suez Canal Zone (1956); King’s African rifles in Kenya; the communist-nationalist insurgency in Aden (1965); Northern Ireland (1969); command IPWO in Cyprus (1971); and Northern Ireland (1972?). Hanson was 93.
The Times, October 9, 2024: 46.
“The Duchess of Edinburgh celebrated 60 years of Malta’s independence and opened a monument to Second World War submariners in Valetta yesterday.”
The Times, October 9, 2024: 20.
Rule Britannia … the last night of the Proms
Positive sum; zero-sum
“Tak a cup of kindness yet” sounds like a positive-sum interaction … “Make thee mightier yet” sounds like a zero-sum interaction. Both phrases were sung last Saturday night.
The last night of the Proms is a grand British institution. It comes at the end of seven weeks of classical concerts at the Royal Albert Hall in London (and at other centres in the UK). The culmination has the following pieces:
Rule Britannia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYS3AKVJ5ow
Land of Hope and Glory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3QLU5ermDc
Jerusalem: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rtLT6-ygxA
God Save the King: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ywHuONE2R4
Auld Lang Syne: -
The Sailors’ Hornpipe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5645nGN6qSA [2012]
Dominant is a certain conception of the national self: God, King and country – religion, monarchy and nation – Britannia.
[Aside: Yachting. Ineos Britannia is the yacht currently competing in the America Cup
https://www.ineosbritannia.com/ ]
From Empire to Commonwealth … the Commonwealth games
The Commonwealth has 56 members and 2.7 billion people - 33% of the world population. All except four recent admissions are former British colonies.
Shirley Botchwey Ghana foreign affairs minister talks at Chatham House:
“Reparations top Commonwealth talks.” The Times, September 14, 2024; 13.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
The Commonwealth games has changed its names over the years and was most recently held in 2022 in Birmingham:
British Empire Games 1930-1950
British Empire and Commonwealth Games 1954-1966
British Commonwealth Games 1970-1974
Commonwealth Games 1978-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_Games
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Commonwealth_Games
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Commonwealth_Games_medal_table#Medal_table
Table The total number of medals gained at the 2022 Commonwealth Games
UK 275
Australia & NZ 229
Asia 107
North America 92
Africa 89
Caribbean 33
Oceania 12
Mediterranean 12
Total 876
Australia 179
England 176
Canada 92
India 61
Scotland 51
New Zealand 49
Nigeria 34
Wales 28
South Africa 27
Malaysia 23
Kenya 21
N. Ireland 18
Jamaica 15
Singapore 12
Cyprus 11
…
Total 876
9 Scotland’s Independence Referendum 2014 …
Scotland: ‘Our values’? Independence? More varied and less distinctive
… Alex Salmond, 1954-2024
“‘Monumental figure’ Salmond dies at 69.” (front page)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/12/alex-salmond-dies-aged-69-in-north-macedonia
THE END