W1 Elections in 2024

Elections in 2024 (May 2024)

Elections in 2024 (written in September 2023)

See below

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PART1

Elections in 2024 (May 2024)

Institutions, partisans and populists

European Union

Partisan about feelings

Diplomatic responses

Partisan about populists

Slovakia: West-East gradient … or centre-periphery

Institutions, partisans and populists

The year 2024 is the year of elections. India, the world’s biggest democracy is currently holding the world’s biggest election in history. The USA is running its presidential election through to November. In June the European Union will hold its elections. And here in the UK, the election is on 4th July.

In all these elections, institutions, partisans and populists are in play. In India, Modi has a partisan conception that India is Hindi. In the USA, will Trump the populist triumph? In Europe will the Far Right make gains? In the UK will Nigel Farage’s Reform Party take votes away from the Conservatives and allow Labour to win. The role of international institutions such as the UN and the EU will be an issue – as will be the role of national democratic institutions.

European Union

Far Right eyes Europe vote surge and ditches AfD:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgllgxlg5dgo

Partisan about feelings

“Slovakian PM fights for life after shooting.” The Times, 16 May 2024: 1.

“Rescue teams search for Iran president after helicopter crash.” The Times, 20 May 2024: 1.

“Netanyahu hits back at war crimes claims.” The Times, 21 May 2024: 1.

How do you feel about the shooting of Prime Minister Robert Fico? How do you feel about the death of President Raisi of Iran? How do you feel about the war crime claim against Prime Minister Netanyahu?

There has been much debate this past week about these three events. Here are some of the editorials and letters.

The Observer: “It’s up to Israel’s allies to persuade Netanyahu to stop standing in the way of peace.” May 19, 2024: 46.

The Times: “Lost in the Fog. The death of the Butcher of Tehran will send ripples across the Middle East.” May 21, 2024: 25.

The Times: “Unwarranted Action. The threat of prosecution for war crimes against Binyamin Netanyahu does nothing to help Palestinian civilians or bring peace closer to Gaza.” May 22, 2024: 27. Also: Letters 22/26, 23/26, 24/24.

The Times: “Recognising Reality. Acknowledging Palestine without Israel’s agreement on two states is pure posturing.” May 23, 2024: 27. Also: Letters 21/24 (somewhat related).

There were also opinion pieces from regular Times columnists:

“Wickedly perverse move should sink the ICC. The arrest warrant for Israel’s PM subverts justice and finally destroys the court’s reputation. … This is from the Salem school of law … verdict first, evidence nowhere.” The Times, May 21, 2024: 22.

“We should worry about who will succeed Raisi. There can be no stability for Iran as it is currently governed … not for citizens or neighbours. … Hamenei has his son Mojtaba in mind as next supreme leader.” The Times, May 22, 2024: 24. Roger Boyes.

“American antipathy towards UN is hardening. It’s not just Trump but Democrats too are growing sceptical of international organisations that take aim at US allies. … The contempt the UN showed for Trump has been fully reciprocated.” The Times, May 24, 2024: 23. Gerard Baker.

“Call to prosecute Netanyahu for war crimes exposes the west’s moral double think. The US and Britin condemn Hamas and Putin, yet balk at attempts to hold Israel’s leaders to account. But no one should be above the law.” The Observer, May 26, 2024: 41.

In the broadest terms the debate might be characterised as follows. There is a conflict between the West and its allies and the enemies of the West. Opinion about this conflict is along a continuum. Two-sided opinion is criticised by partisan opinion. But later we consider whether the two-sided middle is partisan.

. West partisan two-sided middle anti-West partisan

Diplomatic responses

“Growing US dislike of United Nations

Sir, Gerard Baker (comment, May 24) highlights growing US antipathy towards the United Nations. In truth, as the world’s leading power the US has never been comfortable with multilateralism, though this was largely camouflaged by the relative paralysis of international organisations during the Cold War. In recent years, the US has withheld UN funding, pulled out of various UN bodies and international agreements and deliberately undermined the World Trade Organisation. Unfortunately, this US hostility to international organisations serves only to help those such as Russia and China who are actively working to break up the rules-based international order (largely conceived by the US and the UK after the Second World War that has underpinned global security and prosperity for the past 80 years, and which remains critical for western democracies.

Incidentally, there is nothing unusual about the reaction at the UN to the death of the president of Iran – a UN member state. I led the UN security council in a similar tribute when Margaret Thatcher died in 2013.

Sir Mark Lyall Grant

British ambassador to the UN, 2009-2015”

The Times, May 25, 2024: 28.

A thought occurs. That is Sir Mark Lyall Grant’s perception of the last eighty years. What is Russia’s perception? What is China’s perception?

Partisan about populists

However what has caught my attention is the Comment by Joanna Willaims about the shooting. Her comment is in three parts: first she notes the norm for reacting to an attack on a national leader; then she notes how quickly the British media moved on to other matters; and finally she notes how British media carried critical comment.

“Etiquette dictates that we express sympathy with victims of a crime” and condemnation of perpetrators. This was how world leaders responded to the shooting of Robert Fico but “media coverage in Britain has been markedly different. … Fico’s name was tagged with epithets.”

The Spectator: a “controversial prime minister … a deeply polarising figure”.

Sky News: “a polarising political bruiser”.

The Economist: “an extraordinarily divisive figure”.

[in general]: “populist”

UK coverage described:

Fico’s reluctance to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine;

His party’s clashes with Brussels over new media laws;

His criticism of the EU.

“Slovakia, we were told, is divided between younger, pro-EU, city-dwelling professional and older, poorer, rural citizens.”

But his views are not considered divisive to those who voted for him. Fico is polarising only to those journalists whose sympathies lie with Slovakia’s western-leaning professional rather than to the majority of the voters …

“Doubt that Slovak PM was shot by ‘lone wolf’.” … “Comment”, Joanna Willaims.

The Times, May 20, 2024: 12.

Slovakia: West-East gradient … centre-periphery

Looking at the political maps of European countries one sometimes finds a West-East gradient, (both within and between countries) and sometimes a centre-periphery pattern. What is the case for Slovakia? Note that Slovakia is the eastern half, and the Czech Republic is the western half, of the former Czechoslovakia. I’ve just had a quick look.

Parliamentary elections were held in 2023 and Robert Fico’s party SMER-SD was ahead of the other six main parties with just 23% of the vote.

Presidential elections were held in 2024 and Peter Pellegrini of HLAS-SD came second with 37% of the vote in the first round and then won the second run-off round with 53%.

The presidential voting map shows the winner ahead throughout the country except for five ‘islands’ (and overseas): an area in the west around the capital Bratislava, two areas in the middle and two areas in the east around Kosice. The parliamentary voting map is somewhat similar.

SMER-SD: “At the party congress in July 2020, following a major internal split (which resulted in the founding of a new party named Voice – Social Democracy, also known as Hlas–SD), Fico announced a shift to "the rustic social democracy that perceives the specifics of Slovak reality".[35][36] Post-2020 Smer holds stances that have been described as nationalist, populist and Russophilic.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direction_%E2%80%93_Social_Democracy

HLAS-SD: “HLAS–SD has a pro-European outlook and wants to promote traditional social-democratic goals within the welfare state. Reflecting a more conservative stance, especially on social issues, the party refuses to promote liberalism on social issues, which it argues are not in demand. Party vice-chairman Erik Tomáš was quoted as saying: "We have a conservative voter if we talk about polls, and I can assure everyone that we have our priorities, and they are not opening up some liberal issues."[18]. Voice – Social Democracy has been described as a catch-all party [19][20] and is often reluctant to take positions opposed by a significant segment of the electorate”