Search this site
Embedded Files
Gordon Burt
  • VWSM (Values, World Society and Modelling)
    • Values
      • Humanities and mathematics
      • ‘Source of moral values’?
      • z Love
      • Positive Value 1
      • Positive Value 2
      • Positive Value 3
      • Positive Value
      • Positive Value 4
      • Positive Value 5
      • Positive Value 6
      • Positive Value 7
      • Positive Value 8
      • Positive Value 9
      • Positive Value 10
      • Ukraine 58 and World Society
      • Positive Value 11
      • Ukraine 60 and World Society
      • Positive Value 12
      • Ukraine 62 and World Society
      • Ukraine 63 and World Society
      • Ukraine 64 and World Society
      • Ukraine 65 and World Society
      • Ukraine 66 and World Society
      • Ukraine 67 and World Society
      • Ukraine 68 and World Society
      • Ukraine 69 and World Society
      • Ukraine 70 and World Society
      • Mutiny in Russia ... (Ukraine 71.1)
      • Ukraine 71 and World Society
    • World Society
      • Pinker's books and debate
        • x
        • Steven Pinker's book sets an exciting Agenda!
          • The thesis: better angels cause a decline of violence
          • ‘Better angels’ ... positive value
          • All aspects of society
          • Omnidisciplinarity
          • Excellence
      • World Society 1972-2022
      • World Society: Research, monthly
      • Environment
      • World Politics
        • Brexit 2019.
          • Brexit and UK politics ... issues and models
          • The Independent Group: a VWSM view from outside the group
        • The Middle Opinion. The English Empire.
        • The Middle Opinion. USA 2020.
          • Abstract Structure of Public Opinion
          • Mass, Space and Time
        • Ukraine 2022
          • Ukraine: 1 The abstract structure of world opinion
          • Ukraine: 2 World opinion about the Russian invasion
          • Ukraine: 3 Conflict and love … loss aversion and insecurity
          • Ukraine: 4 Platform 5, Lviv … What should be done? A diversity of opinion
          • Ukraine: 5 ‘The nation’, ‘the will of the people’ … entanglement
          • Ukraine: 6 Putin, Patriarch (Moscow, Kviv), Pope, C of E, Christian Aid, To
          • Ukraine: 7
          • Ukraine: 8
          • Ukraine 9
          • Ukraine 10
          • Contents of the reports Ukraine 1 onwards
          • Ukraine 11
          • Ukraine 12
          • Ukraine 13
          • Ukraine 14
          • Ukraine 15
          • Ukraine 16 to 18
          • Ukraine 19
          • Ukraine 20
          • Ukraine 21
          • Ukraine 22
          • Ukraine 23
          • Ukraine 25
          • Ukraine 26
          • Ukraine 27
          • Ukraine 28
          • Ukraine 29
          • Ukraine 30
          • Ukraine 31
          • Ukraine 32
          • Ukraine 33
          • Ukraine 34
          • Ukraine 35
          • Ukraine 36
          • Ukraine 37
          • Ukraine 38
          • Ukraine 39
          • Ukraine 40
          • Ukraine 41
          • Ukraine 42
          • Ukraine 43
          • Ukraine 44
          • Ukraine 45
          • Ukraine 46
          • Ukraine 47
        • z Trump: the null hypothesis
        • Ukraine 24
        • World opinion: continuous distributions and categorical divides
        • Ukraine 2023
      • World Culture
        • 98.2 Burns
      • UK politics; Ireland politics
        • Britannia 2022: Three Prime Ministers and a Royal Funeral
        • 2 VE Day: Winston Churchill and George VI on the balcony
        • 3 The Queen’s Platinum Jubilee
        • 4 Boris Johnson departs … truth and rules
        • 6 The Queen’s death – the nature of collective response
        • 6 Liz Truss’s seven weeks
        • 8 The third prime minister: a young Asian
        • 5 Choosing the next prime minister; social choice theory
        • 1 Introduction and Overviews of the Chapters
        • 9 A postscript: UK local elections and a coronation
        • Ireland and Britannia
        • Scotland and Britannia
        • Israel
        • The Ottoman Empire
      • World Economy
      • World society: government, law, police
      • Nationalism
      • 1918: a values and world society perspective
      • z Peace psychology
      • Ethnicity
      • Gender
      • 98.3 Rome
      • Sport
        • Football and Mathematics: Premier League and World Cup
          • Football and Mathematics News (FMN)
      • z World Society Programme
        • z World Society Conversations
          • News at Ten: why?
          • WSC 3: gender and conflict
      • The national self
      • Self and other; opinions and reality
      • The national self … empires in Europe … the Ottoman empire
      • Nations and world: variation and self
      • zzz
      • W13 Brexit majority
    • Modelling (Mathematics)
      • 5. A Modelling Commentary on the News, 'MCN' (May to June 2012)
      • Mathematics and Society
      • 1 Mathematical social science - general theory
        • Competition over space and time for people’s opinions
      • 2 Specific complex social reality – a mathematical approach
      • 3 Lives and histories - mathematical accounts
      • 4 What should be? Positivity and social improvement – mathematical accounts
      • 6 Social Modelling Notes, 'SM'
      • 7 Presented papers, 'PP'
      • 8 Your Comments
      • Mathematics
    • Archive
      • VWSM Yearbooks
        • reviewers YB2017
          • YB17 very final
        • Values, World Society and Modelling Yearbook 2018
          • Israel 1948
      • VWSM Values, World Society and Modelling ... Commentary ... A New Agenda
        • Files with links from Commentary
    • 100 months of my reports, 2014-2022
  • Books, online, draft
    • Local elections and national polls
    • 24.2 World value trajectories
    • 24.3 Religion: Making the World Better?
    • 24.4 Asking for the impossible? Democracy
    • B24.5 Humanities and mathematics
  • W
    • W1 Elections in 2024
    • W2 Jump then slump: UK Lib Dem, 1945-2019
    • W3 First party: UK Conservative Party, 1945-2023
    • W4 Israel and Palestine
    • W5 Local elections and national polls: modelling change
    • W5.1 PART 1 The first two sections
    • W5.2 PART 2 Sections 3 to 8
    • W5.3 PART 3 The main part, Section 7.2
    • W6 Gaza-Israel … national and world opinion
    • W7 Abrahamic V-space: positive and negative in Israel and in Palestine
    • W8 Israel and Palestine: values, religion, nation and gender
    • W9 Israel and Palestine: world opinion
    • W 10 Positivity … War … Gaza … Empire … Democracy … Elections 2024
    • W11 Love everybody; understand everybody
    • W12 Values: overviews of chapters
    • W19 USA election 2024
    • W20 War and world society
    • W22 My Election Night Coverage
    • w23 VWSMSS Introductory chapters
    • W24 Olympics 1896-2024 … the self-other gradient … polling error
    • W25 A foundational approach
    • W26 World sport ... Olympics 2024
    • W27 Decline, violence, history
    • W28 Decline of death
    • W29
    • W30
    • W31
    • 32 Love all always
    • 33
    • 34
    • 35
    • 36
    • 37
    • w38
    • w39
    • 39
    • 40
    • 41
    • 42
    • 43
    • 44
    • 45
    • 46
    • 47
    • 48
    • 49
    • 50
    • 51
    • 52
    • w53
    • w54
    • 55
    • 56
    • 57
  • Guide to the VWSM web pages
  • Values, World Society and Modelling (overall)
  • Mathematical Social Science
  • B
    • B1
    • B1.
    • B1.1
    • B1.2
    • B1.3
    • B1.4
    • B1.5
    • B1.6
    • B1.7
    • B1.8
    • B1.9
    • B1.10
    • B1.11
    • B1.12
    • B2
    • b13
  • Visit latest: Ukraine, “Nations and World: Variation and Self” ...
  • Other
    • w23 My Election News Latest
    • My Election News Latest
    • w24 BBC Election News Latest
    • w25 BBC Election News Cumulative
    • w26 My Election News Cumulative
    • zzzzz
    • W1 page onwards
    • Files since November 2021
    • BIN
      • xx
      • new page
      • zz new page
      • . VWSM (Values, World Society and Modelling)
    • B!
    • W13 Brexit majority
    • w27 Election Book at Bedtime
  • W13 UK Conservatives
  • W14 Rochdale
  • W15 .
  • W16
  • W17
  • W18
  • VWSM Notes
    • VWSM Note 1, December 2021
    • VWSM Note 2
    • z new
  • A history of conflict ... Conflict Research Society,
  • PART 2 Background material for …
Gordon Burt

Israel and Palestine: self and other, positive and negative; 2023


5 World opinion

FIRST DRAFT (14 pages)

 

Distributed … not united, not divided, not polarised

 

World opinion?

UN Security Council and General Assembly

United Nations and empire systems

UN and Palestine, 2012

The opinion space model

Voting patterns and distances in voting space

Opinion: one-sided, two-sided

Gaza Assistance vote, 23rd December 23 2023

The Red Sea

Houthi Attacks vote, 10th January 2024

Combining the voting patterns in the two issues

Illegal Israeli Actions vote, 26th October 2023

Condemnation: world opinion about Hamas and Israeli violences

Lists of countries: proposing and voting

 

World opinion?

 

What is world opinion? Is it the opinion of the people of the world? Is it the opinion of the states of the world? Is the opinion of a state the opinion of its people? Is it the opinion of its government?

  This section takes a very restricted approach: it simply looks at world opinion in terms of votes cast at the United Nations. And we look at the voting on just three occasions:

 

The UN Security Council vote in 2023 about aid to Gaza;

the UN Security Council vote in 2024 about Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea;

The UN General Assembly vote in 2023 about Israel’s actions in Gaza.

 

In all three cases the resolution passed easily. Usually those who did not vote ‘For’ chose to ‘Abstain’ rather than vote ‘Against’. Very few members did not vote. What did not pass were the amendments to the resolutions. Voting for these was more varied and it is this variation which shall reveal to us the distances between nations in opinion space. An explanation of this opinion space model will follow. Before that though there are a couple sections relating to the UN and the history of its composition.

 

Table UN votes for the resolutions

.                           For   Abstn  Agnst  did not vote Total

Gaza assistance         13    2      0      0                  15

Houthi attacks           11    4      0      0              15

Israeli action           120  45    14    14            193

 

UN Security Council and General Assembly

 

The UN General Assembly has 193 members. This does not include Palestine – see below.

 

The UN Security Council has 15 members. Five are permanent and ten are not. The ten members each serve for a period of two years and are in two sets of five: five are newly member in the current year; and five were newly members in the previous year.

UN Security Council: https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/

UNSC News (general): https://press.un.org/en/content/security-council

 

Permanent members (5): USA, Russia, France, UK, China.

Non-permanent members (10):

Dec 2023: Albania-, Brazil-, Ecuador, Gabon-, Ghana-, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates-.

(‘-‘ is for countries who are in their last year)

Jan 2024: Algeria*, Ecuador, Guyana*, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, R Korea*, Sierra Leone*, Slovenia*, Switzerland.

(‘*‘ is for countries who are in their first year)

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/current-members

 

United Nations and empire systems

 

The Second World War was a war partly within Europa*, partly within Abrahamia* and partly against the Asian empire of Japan. It was also partly a war between the two Asian empires of Japan and China.

     In 1945 Europa was at its zenith. The armies of the USA, UK and Russia occupied a large part of the world, controlling the Atlantic and the Pacific.

    Initially the United Nations membership reflected the ascendancy of Europa.

    Even today, four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council belong to Europa: USA, UK, France and Russia. Although there is conflict between the first three and Russia this is still a conflict within Europa.

    The fifth permanent member has always been “China”, but this has changed in four stages: 1945-1948, 1948-1949, 1949-1971 and 1971 to the present:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_the_United_Nations#Republic_of_China_in_the_United_Nations_(1945%E2%80%931971) ;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_the_United_Nations ;

See also: https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/09/china-looks-reform-global-governance-how-does-it-approach-un

 

UN and Palestine, 2012

 

This is simply a note on the status of Palestine in the United Nations.

https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N12/479/74/PDF/N1247974.pdf?OpenElement

 

To accord an upgraded status to the Palestinian delegation:

Palestine: The UN … “Decides to accord to Palestine non-member observer State status in the United Nations, without prejudice to the acquired rights, privileges and role of the Palestine Liberation Organization in the United Nations as the representative of the Palestinian people, in accordance with the relevant resolutions and practice.”

— United Nations General Assembly resolution 67/19, Point 2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_resolution_67/19 Palestine Authority…

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Palestinian-Authority

 

The opinion space model

 

States can be represented as points in multidimensional opinion space. The distribution of these points in the space is of interest. It may that there is a modal group of states roughly “in the middle” with “extreme states” on either side – with the extreme states in opposition to one another. It may be that the extreme states include some of the major powers.

     Issues correspond to subspaces. The preceding remarks may apply to the subspaces. Issue linkage gives rise to linkage in the distribution. Major powers are involved in more issues and so appear more often as extreme states.

  Some issues involve negative binary relationships and so the two states involved are the opposing extreme states on this issue.

  The world lacks unity because there are states in the extremes. The world is not divided in two because there are more than two groups. The world is not polarised because the modal group is in the middle. The foundational concept is that of a distribution in multidimensional space.

  These abstract notions are illustrated with the analysis of three votes in relation to Israel and Palestine and the Houthis.

 

A model of selves and others

 

Each state is a self and all the other states are that state’s others. The set of states is a set of selves and others. So the above readily gives an abstract model of a set of selves and others giving a distribution in multidimensional space, in general.

 

Voting patterns and distances in voting space

 

For any vote in the UN there are four options: For, Against, Abstain and did not vote. Here we shall refer to Yes and No rather than For and Against, labelling them Y and N; labelling Abstain A; and labelling did not vote ‘dnv’.

  The options can be thought of as points in a one-dimensional space. The distance between Y and N is 2; and A is at a distance of 1 from Y and 1 from N. (Here ‘did not vote’ can be thought of as in the same location as Abstain.)

         N     A     Y

 

Typically a draft resolution is proposed and then amendments to the draft are proposed. Voting takes place on the amendments and on the main draft. Consider the case where there is one main draft and one amendment. There will be a pair of votes, giving rise to two dimensions. There are nine possible combinations (ignoring ‘did not vote’).

Note: the first letter refers to the main vote; and the second letter refers to the amendment vote.

         NY  AY  YY

         NA  AA  YA

         NN  AN  YN

 

Consider the following five possibilities (in bold in the matrix above):

.(1) NY. No to main; and Yes to the amendment.

,(2) AY. Abstain to the main; and Yes to the amendment.

.(3) YY. Yes to both.

.(4) YA. Yes to the main; and Abstain to the amendment.

.(5) YN. Yes to the main; and No to the amendment.

     These can be represented in a one-dimensional space:

         NY  AY  YY  YA  YN

 

The combined distance between NY and YN is 4 – because the distance between the first components is 2, between N and Y; and between the second components is 2, between Y and N. The other distances can be calculated in similar fashion.

  The matrix of distances is:

         NY  AY  YY  YA  YN

NY  0      1      2      3      4

AY          0      1      2      3

AA                  0      1      2

YA                          0      1

YN                                          0

 

Opinion: one-sided, two-sided

 

In the above matrix, there is a distinction between the two-side opinion YY, Yes to both the resolution and to the amendment, and the other one-sided opinions.

 

.(1) NY. Strongly one-sided for the amendment.

,(2) AY. Fairly one-sided for the amendment.

.(3) YY. Two-sided.

.(4) YA. Fairly one-sided for the main resolution.

.(5) YN. Strongly one-sided for the main resolution.

 

Gaza Assistance vote, 23rd December 2023

 

Resolution: Gaza assistance

Amendment: also ceasefire

mode is both – two-sided

 

Last December the 15-member UN Security Council passed a resolution about assistance to Gaza, with 13 countries in favour including the UK, with none against, and with only USA and Russia abstaining.

  A Russian-backed amendment calling for an immediate ceasefire gained 10 votes, with 4 abstentions and one against (USA).

“The Security Council today requested the Secretary-General to appoint a Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator for the Gaza Strip as it demanded the parties to the conflict to allow, facilitate and enable the immediate, safe and unhindered delivery of humanitarian assistance at scale directly to Palestinian civilians throughout that territory.” (4)

.(1) “UN to boost Gaza aid after US abstains.” The Times, 23 December 2023, 44.

.(2) Times of Israel: https://www.timesofisrael.com/security-council-passes-resolution-calling-for-steps-to-immediately-increase-gaza-aid/

.(3) Al-Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/22/un-security-council-passes-resolution-on-increased-gaza-aid-delivery

.(4) https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15546.doc.htm . 2720 (2023)

 

The table below gives the votes cast for the main resolution and for the amendment. Note that there were no votes against the main resolution and only one against the amendment.

 

Table Gaza Assistance vote, UNSC resolution 2720 (2023)

.               For   Abstn  Against        dnv  total

Main         13    2      0              0      15

ceasefire      10    4      1              0      15   

2= US, Russia; 4= Albania, Japan, Switzerland, UK; 1= USA.

dnv: did not vote

 

The voting patterns were AY, YY, YA and AN, indicated in bold in the matrix below.

Note: the first letter refers to the main vote; and the second letter refers to the amendment vote.

         NY  AY  YY

         NA  AA  YA

         NN  AN  YN

 

The four patterns can be ordered in such a way as to minimise the distance between adjacent patterns. The matrix of distances is:

         AY  YY  YA  AN

AY  0      1      2      2

YY          0      1      3

YA                      0      2

AN                                      0

 

The table below gives the distribution of voting patterns. The mode is YY. Note that the mode YY is also the median (in relation to the ordering of the patterns).

 

Table The number of votes for each pattern

.       AN  YA  YY  AY          total

         1      4      9      1              15

.       USA UK+ mode   Russia                 

 

The countries voting for these patterns were:

AY: Russia

YY: France, China, Brazil, Ecuador, Gabon, Ghana, Malta, Mozambique, United Arab Emirates.

YA: Albania, Japan, Switzerland, UK

AN: USA

 

Only two of the nine modal states are in Europa (2/9). All but one of the non-modal states is in Europa (5/6).

 

In accordance with the model proposed earlier there is a modal group “in the middle”. On either side are two “extreme states”, opposed to one another: Russia and the USA, both major powers, both permanent members of the Security Council.

 

The Red Sea

 

January 9th, 2024: Naval interception by the United States and United Kingdom of a barrage of missiles and drones fired from Houthi-controlled territory into the Red Sea.

January 10th, 2024: Houthi Attacks vote at UN – see below.

January 11th, 2024: Air strikes on Yemen.

 

Air Strikes on Yemen, 11 January 2024

“Cycle of Violence ...

Following strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen launched by the United States and United Kingdom on 11 January — a day after the Security Council adopted a resolution demanding that the Houthis cease attacking merchant and commercial vessels — a senior United Nations official today warned the 15-nation organ of the consequences of further escalation and urged restraint by all concerned parties.”

https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15565.doc.htm

 

Houthi Attacks vote, 10th January 2024

 

Resolution: condemns Houthis

Amendment (third): also condemns Gaza suffering

mode is one-sided for Resolution

 

“Adopting Resolution 2722 (2024) by Recorded Vote, Security Council Demands Houthis Immediately Stop Attacks on Merchant, Commercial Vessels in Red Sea

United States, United Kingdom Reject Three Amendments By Russian Federation, including One Linking Attacks to Gaza Conflict.

  Following naval interception by the United States and United Kingdom of a barrage of missiles and drones fired from Houthi-controlled territory into the Red Sea on 9 January, the Security Council today adopted a resolution demanding that the Houthis immediately cease all attacks on merchant and commercial vessels.

The first would have added a new preambular paragraph underscoring that the text’s provisions should not be seen to create precedent or new norms of international law.  The second would have replaced language regarding the defence of vessels with that taking note of Member States’ rights in accordance with international law.  Both were rejected by a vote of 4 in favour (Algeria, China, Russian Federation, Sierra Leone) to 2 against (United Kingdom, United States), with 9 abstentions. 

The third — rejected along similar lines, except for Guyana voting in favour instead of abstaining — would have added language relating to the conflict in the Gaza Strip. …

     The Council then adopted resolution 2722 (2024) (to be issued as document S/RES/2722(2024)) by a vote of 11 in favour to none against, with 4 abstentions (Algeria, China, Mozambique, Russian Federation).”

UNSC resolution 2722 (2024)

 

The table below gives the votes cast for the main resolution and for the three amendments. Note that there were no votes against the main resolution and only two votes against each of the amendments

 

Table Houthi Attacks UNSC resolution 2722 (2024)

.               For   Abstn  Against        dnv  total

Main            11    4      0              0      15

precedent      4    9      2                  0

state rights     4    9      2                  0

link to Gaza   5    8      2                  0                 

 

The voting patterns were YN3, YA3, A4, YA2Y, Y4, and AY3. The patterns, main and amendments, are indicated in bold in the matrix below.

Note: the first letter refers to the main vote; and the second letter refers to the first amendment vote, etc.

         NY  AYYY          YYYY

                                 YAAY

         NA  AAAA         YAAA

         NN  AN          YNNN

 

The four patterns can be ordered in such a way as to minimise the distance between adjacent patterns. The matrix of distances is:

.       AY3  Y4    YA2Y  A4    YA3 YN3 

AY3 0      1      3      3      4      7                 

Y4            0      2      4      3      6                 

YA2Y                      0      2      1      4             

A4                                    0      1      4                 

YA3                                             0      3                 

YN3                                                             0     

 

The table below gives the distribution of voting patterns. The mode is YA3. Note that the mode YA3 is also the median (given the ordering of the patterns).

Table The number of votes for each pattern

         AY3 Y4    YA2Y  A4    YA3 YN3         total

.       3      1      1      1      7      2              15

.       Russia,                                 mode   USA,

.       China+                            France UK                 

 

The countries voting for these patterns were:

AY3: Russia, China, Algeria;

Y4: Sierra Leone;

YA2Y: Guyana;

A4: Mozambique;

YA3: France, Ecuador, Japan, Malta, R Korea, Slovenia, Switzerland;

YN3: USA, UK.

 

Four of the seven modal states are in Europa (4/7). Three of the eight non-modal states is in Europa (3/8).

 

In accordance with the model proposed earlier there is a modal group “in the middle”. The modal group includes France, a permanent member of the Security Council. On either side are two pairs of “extreme states”, opposed to one another: Russia & China and the USA and UK, all major powers, all permanent members of the Security Council.

 

Combining the voting patterns in the two issues

 

We have now looked at two separate issues, namely Gaza assistance and Houthi attacks. Let us now consider the combination of the voting patterns on these two issues.

  First consider just the five permanent members. There are five distinct combinations. The combinations can be ordered in such a way as to minimise the distance between adjacent patterns. Russia is just a distance of 1 away from China;

USA is just a distance of 2 away from UK. France is in the middle, a distance of 4 from each of China and UK.

  Note that France (which is in both modal groups) is also the median (given the ordering of the combinations) in both issues.

 

.       Russia  China   France UK  USA

.       AY  mode   mode   YA  AN              mode is YY

         AY3 AY3 mode   YN3 YN3          mode is YA3

.distance  1     4        4     2         

 

The matrix of distances is:

 

Table The matrix of distances

.       Russia  China   France UK  USA

.       AY  mode   mode   YA  AN              mode is YY

         AY3 AY3 mode   YN3 YN3          mode is YA3

Russia  0      1      5      9      9     

China           0      4      5      10   

France                     0      4      6     

UK                                  0      2     

USA                                             0     

 

This analysis can be extended to include the non-permanent members. There are 20 different members in 2023 and 2024. There are 13 different combinations. The distances between adjacent combinations (treating ‘-‘ as abstentions):

1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 4, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1, 3, 2

 

The countries voting for these patterns were:

AY, AY3: Russia

YY, AY3: China

-, AY3: Algeria;

-, Y4: Sierra Leone;

-, YA2Y: Guyana;

YY, A4: Mozambique;

YY, -: Brazil, Gabon, Ghana, United Arab Emirates mode, median I

YY, YA3: France, Ecuador, Malta                          median II

-, YA3: R Korea, Slovenia

YA, -: Albania

YA, YA3: Japan, Switzerland;

YA, YN3: UK

AN, YN3: USA

 

The table below gives the distribution of voting patterns. The mode is YY, -. Note that the mode YA3 is also the median I (given the ordering of the patterns) – adjacent to YY, YA3, which is median II.

Table The number of votes for each pattern

Russia  China                                               UAE France                     Japan UK; USA

1      1      1      1      1      1      4      3      2      1      2      1; 1

 

None of the four modal states are in Europa (0/4). Half of the non-modal states are in Europa (8/16).

 

In accordance with the model proposed earlier there is a modal group “in the middle”. At either extreme are two “extreme states”, opposed to one another: Russia and the USA, both major powers, both permanent members of the Security Council.

 

Illegal Israeli Actions vote, 26th October 2023

 

Resolution: condemns Israel mainly

Amendment: also condemns Hamas

Bimodal: two one-sided modes

 

On 26th October 2023 the General Assembly of the United Nations considered a draft resolution concerning the “Illegal Israeli actions in Occupied East Jerusalem and the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territory”. Canada proposed an amendment, proposing the addition of a paragraph condemning the Hamas attack on October 7th. The Canada amendment failed to gather sufficient support and the main resolution was passed. The UK subsequently produced a paper about why they had abstained from the main motion.

     “In the end, the amendment failed, unable to garner the required two-thirds majority of votes in the General Assembly. The vote saw 88 members in favour, and 55 against, with 23 abstentions. The resolution itself passed by a margin of 120-14.”

Note: the General Assembly has 193 members.

https://www.un.org/en/ga/sessions/emergency10th.shtml

 

Table Raw numbers: the votes

.       For   Abstn  Against Did not vote   Total

Main 120  45    14    14            193                97 for absolute majority

Canada  88  23    55    27            193              128 for two-thirds  

https://twitter.com/UN_News_Centre/status/1717992371906839005/photo/2

https://twitter.com/UN_News_Centre/status/1717991362010792164

 

The main draft resolution, 26 October 2023

“Illegal Israeli actions in Occupied East Jerusalem and the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territory

[As this title implies the main concern of the resolution is to condemn Israeli “illegal” actions, although the following few sentences seem (inter alia) to refer to the Hamas attack on 7 October.]

… Expressing grave concern at the latest escalation of violence since the 7 October 2023 attack and …

… Condemning all acts of violence aimed at Palestinian and Israeli civilians, including all acts of terrorism and indiscriminate attacks, as well as all acts of provocation, incitement and destruction,

… 7. Calls for the immediate and unconditional release of all civilians who are being illegally held captive, demanding their safety, well-being and humane treatment in compliance with international law;”

 

Canada amendment

“Canada:* amendment to draft resolution A/ES-10/L.25 Protection of civilians and upholding legal and humanitarian obligations

After operative paragraph 1, insert the following paragraph: Unequivocally rejects and condemns the terrorist attacks by Hamas that took place in Israel starting on 7 October 2023 and the taking of hostages, demands the safety, well-being and humane treatment of the hostages in compliance with international law, and calls for their immediate and unconditional release;”

https://www.un.org/unispal/document/canada-amendment-to-draft-resolution-a-es-10-l-25/

 

Why the UK abstained

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/condemning-hamas-terrorism-should-not-be-controversial-uk-at-the-un-general-assembly

 

Condemnation: world opinion about Hamas and Israeli violences

 

The main resolution, the Canada amendment and the UK paper all refer to condemnation. Either it is one-sided condemnation of either Hamas or Israel, or it is two-sided condemnation of both. The three documents are conceptually sophisticated but for what comes later I think it is helpful to summarise the situation as follows.

  There are 193 countries at the UN. They can be put into groups according to their voting on the main resolution and on the Canada amendment. Each vote has four options: for, abstain, against, or do not vote. There are sixteen possible combined options. So sixteen possible groups of countries. These sixteen options/groups are identified in the following.

  Israel condemns Hamas violence. Hamas condemns Israeli violence. Supporters of Israel condemn only Hamas violence (1). Supporters of Hamas condemn only Israeli violence (2). There are those who condemn both Hamas violence and Israeli violence (3). Two groups abstain on one violence and condemn the other: either abstain on Hamas violence (4); or abstain on Israeli violence (5). No-one abstains on both cases of violence (6).

Three possible groups are some combination of abstain, and against condemnation of violence: against condemnation of Hamas and abstain on Israel (7); against condemnation of Israel and abstain on Hamas (8); against condemnation of both (9).

  Seven possible groups do not vote on one or both motions: vote on neither (10); condemn Israel (11); condemn Hamas (12); abstain on Israel (13); abstain on Hamas (14); … (15); … (16).

  The number of countries in each of these groups is:

14, 51, 34; 39, 21, 0; 4, 0, 0; 11, 14, 1, 2, 2, 0, 0.

  So there is no consensus. Nor are there two blocs of opinion. Instead there are seven groups/options with ten or more countries. There are another four groups/options with just a few countries. So overall, eleven different groups, eleven different opinions. So it is helpful to think of a distribution of opinion.

  Almost all the 193 countries voted either ‘for’ the main resolution or ‘for’ the Canada amendment or ‘for’ both. Only 19 did not – and of those 11 did not vote for either.

  Of the 120 countries who voted ‘for’ the main resolution, 51 voted ‘against’ the Canada amendment (Iran), 34 voted ‘for’ Canada (France), 21 abstained and 14 did not vote (Afghanistan).

  Of the 88 countries who voted ‘for’ the Canada amendment, 34 also voted ‘for’ the main resolution (as already noted) (France), 39 abstained on the main (UK), 14 voted ‘against’ (US and Israel); and 1 did not vote.

  Four countries voted ‘for’ the main resolution and abstained on the Canada amendment: Ethiopia A, Iraq A, Serbia A, Tunisia A,

 

The table below gives the votes cast for the main resolution and for the amendment. Note that there were no votes against the main resolution and only one against the amendment.

 

Table Raw numbers: the votes

.       For   Abstn  Against Did not vote   Total

Main 120  45    14    14            193                97 for absolute majority

Canada  88  23    55    27            193              128 for two-thirds  

 

 

Table “Illegal Israeli action”: the resolution and amendment voting pattern.

The distribution of voting: the options and the number of countries voting for each option

.               main:

.       dnv  N     A     Y                 total

Amendment:

Y       1    14    39      34                88 

A       2      0      0      21                23 

N       0      0      4      51                55 

dnv  11      0      2      14                27 

total 14    14    45    120              193 

 

The voting patterns were NY, AY, YY, YA and AN, indicated in bold in the matrix above and in the matrix below.

Note: the first letter refers to the main vote; and the second letter refers to the amendment vote.

         NY  AY  YY

         NA  AA  YA

         NN  AN  YN

 

The five patterns can be ordered in such a way as to minimise the distance between adjacent patterns. The matrix of distances is:

         NY  AY  YY  YA  YN

NY  0      1      2      3      4

AY          0      1      2      3

YY                  0      1      2

YA                              0      1

AN                                          0

 

The table below gives the distribution of voting patterns. The mode is YN. However the distribution is bimodal with a second smaller mode at AY. The median is YY (in relation to the ordering of the patterns).

Table The number of votes for each pattern

.       YN  YA  YY  AY  NY          total

         51    21    34    39    14            15

.       R C Arab     Can Fr UK  USA, Israel                    

 

According to the model proposed earlier there is a modal group “in the middle”. This is not the case here. What is the case though is that on either side of the middle are two “extreme states”, opposed to one another: Russia and the USA, both major powers, both permanent members of the Security Council.

 

Lists of countries: proposing and voting

 

NOTE: the following lists need checking.

 

Proposing

 

… The proposers included many Arab countries; and no European except for Russia. It did not include China.

Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belize, Bolivia (Plurinational State of), Botswana, Brunei Darussalam, Comoros, Cuba, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Djibouti, Egypt, El Salvador, Indonesia, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mauritania, Morocco, Namibia, Nicaragua, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russian Federation, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Türkiye, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of), Yemen, Zimbabwe and State of Palestine:* draft resolution

https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/LTD/N23/319/20/PDF/N2331920.pdf?OpenElement

 

Voting

 

1 Those voting for the main resolution

There were 120 countries voting for the main resolution. Some, 34, also voted for the Canada amendment, 34; some abstained, 21; most voted against the Canada amendment, 51; and 14 did not vote in relation to the Canada amendment.

…

A Voted for Canada amendment

Some Europe

Andorra, Argentina, Armenia, Barbados, Belgium, Bhutan, Bosnia, Brazil,

Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican, Ecuador, France, Ghana, Honduras,

Ireland, Kenya, Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Malawi, Malta, Mexico,

Montenegro, Myanmar, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Peru, Portugal,

Singapore, Slovenia, Solomon, Spain, Switzerland, Timor.

…

B Abstained on Canada amendment

No Europe

Angola, Antigua, Bahamas, Botswana, Colombia, Cote D’Ivoire,

DR, El Salvador, Grenada, Guinea B, Lao, Lesotho, Mongolia,

Mozambique, Nepal, St Vincent, Suriname, Thailand, Trinidad.

…

C Voted against Canada amendment

Arab … no Europe except Russia

Algeria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belize, Bolivia, Brunei, Central Africa, Chad, China, Comoros, Congo, Cuba, DPK, Djibouti, Egypt, Gambia, Guinea, Guyana, Indonesia, Iran, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Mauretania, Morocco, Namibia, Nicaragua, Niger, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia, Saudi A, Senegal, Somalia, S Africa, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan,

Turkiye, Uganda, UAR, URT, Yemen, Zimbabwe.

…

D Did not vote in relation to Canda amendment

No Europe

Afghanistan, Dominica, Equator Guin, Eritrea, Gabon, Madagascar, Mauritius, St Kitts, St Lucia, Sierra Leone, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

 

2 Those abstaining on the main resolution

There were 45 countries abstaining on the main resolution.

…

A Most of those, 39, voted for the Canada amendment.

They included UK and many European countries

Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Lativa, Lithuania, Monaco, Netherlands, North Mac, Poland, Rep of Moldova, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Sweden, Ukraine, UK.

     Australia, Cabo Verde, Canada, Georgia, Haiti, India, Japan, Kiribati, Palau, Panama, Philippines, Rep of Korea, South Sudan, Tuvalu, Uruguay.

…

B [None abstained].

…

C Four went the opposite way and voted against Canada (Ethiopia, Iraq, Serbia, Tunisia).

No  Europe.

…

D Just three did note vote in relation to Canada (Cameroon, Vanuatu, Zambia).

No Europe.

 

3 Those voting against the main resolution

There were 14 countries voting against the main resolution.

A They all voted for the Canada amendment.

They included

Three in Europe … Israel and the USA … Austria and Croatia … two countries in Latin America and five in the Pacific.

Austria, Croatia, Czechia, Fiji, Guatemala, Israel, Marshall I., Micronesia, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Tonga, USA.

 

4 Those not voting in relation to the main resolution

No Europe

There were 14 countries not voting for the main resolution.

…

A Just one (Seychelles) voted for the Canada amendment.

…

B Two (Jamaica and Togo) abstained.

…

D Of those, 11 countries did not vote in relation to the Canada amendment either.

Benin, Burkino Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Eswatini, Liberia, Rwanda, Samoa, Sao Tome-P, Turkmenistan and Venezuela.

Google Sites
Report abuse
Page details
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse