VE Day: today in the UK, tomorrow in Russia … Rus, Britannia, Third Reich, MAGA
VE Day: today in the UK, tomorrow in Russia … Rus, Britannia, Third Reich, MAGA
VE Day: today in the UK, tomorrow in Russia
Britannia … the Conservative party
A two-group system … the Britannia group
Runcorn: a Britannia by-election?
… Model: national step ratio plus group 50% tactical voting
The national self … empires in Europe … the Ottoman empire
USA power: self and other; positive and negative
VE Day: today in the UK, tomorrow in Russia
“Eighty years on. Victory in Europe was the ultimate triumph of hope over despair.”
“Xi and Putin are brothers in arms of force for Victory Day.”
The Times, May 8 2025: 25 (Editorial); 28.
World wars are global events but are locally experienced and remembered.
‘Local’ may be national experience and remembrance …
… and ‘national’ may be a certain conception of the nation …
… and conceptions may be political.
GO TO
World Wars I and II (extracts from the 2014 and 2015 Yearbooks)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Dt9G_bv5Ue5-WfaaD0PVpgSL3rutbe4s/view
‘Our values’: nationalism and remembrance, pp 5-8
Universalism? Global war and local remembrances, pp 8-11
The Russian Empire, pp 14-18
The British Empire, pp 18-19
1945: Japan, USA, China and the Pacific, pp 19-20
1945-2015: the United Nations, pp 20-22
Britannia … the Conservative party
In the UK, the notion of Britannia has involved a certain conception of Britain. It has been associated with the Conservative party.
“Churchill’s Ghost. The war leader’s words and Ukraine’s courage lent poignancy to the VE Day parade …
… The King was, like his grandfather George VI, attired in the uniform of Admiral of the Fleet, and like him took to the balcony of Buckingham Palace to acknowledge the crowd.”
The Times, May 6, 2025: 23.
GO TO Chapter:
2 VE Day: Winston Churchill and George VI on the balcony
In draft online book:
Britannia: Three Prime Ministers and a Queen
A two-group system … the Britannia group
The members of the Conservative party have varied in the strength of their commitment to the notion of Britannia. Over time parties have formed with a strong commitment to Britannia: UKIP, the Brexit Party and now Reform. The parties sympathetic to the notion of Britannia can be considered as a group, the Britannia group, Group A, with other parties belonging to a Group B. So UK politics can be thought of as a two-group system.
At the time of the Brexit referendum the combined vote for the Conservative and the Brexit party, the Group A vote, was about 50%. It is currently just below this level in the opinion polls. There is much attention to how the vote is split between and within the two groups.
Before and after its success in the recent local elections the Reform party has been ahead of Labour in opinion polls.
A Conservative 20% (17-23) – midpoint, range
B Labour 23% (20-26)
A Reform 27% (25-29)
B Lib Dem 14% (11-16)
B Green 10% (7-13)
…
Group A 47% (45-48)
Group B 47% (45-49)
…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Here is how one opponent sees Reform and its view of Britain:
“… there is a serious chance Reform could form the next government. The idea fills me with horror. The party represents a nostalgic, xenophobic, small-island view of Britain. It includes racists.”
“I abhor Reform but they’re right on one thing. Leaving the ECHR would let us retain a liberal immigration policy – and keep Farage’s party out.” Emma Duncan. The Times. May 9 2025: 24.
Here is another angle:
“Voters are sick of lectures from the lanyard class. Reform is surging because working class people resent the professional cadre who dismiss them as stupid and racist.” Janice Turner. The Times. May 10 2025: 23.
In the wake of the local elections there is much talk of the two-party system being replaced by a five-party system. What is also the case is that there has been a continuation of a two-group system, each consisting of about half the voters.
Runcorn: a Britannia by-election? …
Prelude
“A by-election is being held in Runcorn and Helsby. In the general election last year Labour won the seat with an overall majority with Reform in second place with only 18% of the vote, just ahead of the Conservatives on 16%.
Let us speculate about the result in Runcorn tomorrow. Suppose the local Runcorn results follow the national situation – suppose the local step ratios follow the national step ratios. This gives a prediction based on the national step ratios. Labour will fall to 36.1% and Reform will rise to 31.6%, just behind Labour. So Labour just manages to retain Runcorn. (The other three parties are far behind.)
But this prediction might be wrong. Labour in Runcorn might do worse than this and lose to Reform, losing local support because of bad behaviour by the outgoing Labour MP, and the Reform candidate gaining tactical votes from the Conservatives – giving the seat to Reform.”
“Labour thinks it has lost Runcorn to Reform”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/29/labour-thinks-lost-runcorn-reform-charts/
Extract from:
Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in UK elections … my book
The result
It was an astonishing result. At the first count there were just four votes in it - Reform ahead of Labour. There was a recount. There were now six votes in it - Reform again ahead of Labour. Labour had lost the seat – despite being ahead of Reform by 35% just a year ago.
Labour and Reform each had 38.7% of the vote. All the other parties had less than 10%: Conservatives 7.2%, Green 7.1% and Lib Dems 2.9%. Group A (Conservatives plus Reform) had 45.9%; Group B (Labour plus Lib Dem plus Green) had 48.7%; and others had 5.4%.
The step difference between the 2024 general election (GE24) and the 2025 by-election (BE25) shows a large gain for Reform, and large losses from Labour and Conservative … a large gain for Group A and a large loss for Group B.
Table 1 Runcorn: step difference, 2024-2025
. GE24 BE25 step difference
Conservative 16.0 7.2 - 8.8
Labour 52.9 38.7 -14.2
Reform 18.1 38.7 +20.6
Lib Dem 5.1 2.9 - 2.2
Green 6.4 7.1 + 0.7
Other 1.5 5.4 + 3.9
Group A 34.1 45.9 +11.8
Group B 64.4 48.7 -15.7
. 100 100 0
Note: a notional estimate, taking account of boundary changes of Group A in the 2019 general election is 41.6 (36.8 Conservative plus 4.8 reform).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Runcorn_and_Helsby_by-election.
The same change between the 2024 general election (GE24) and the 2025 by-election (BE25) can be studied using a different measure, namely the step ratio. The Reform vote doubled with a step ratio of 2.14; the Conservative vote halved with a step ratio of 0.45 as did the Lib Dem vote (step ratio 0.57); the Labour vote was three quarters of what it had been (step ratio 0.73); and the Green vote was much the same (step ratio 1.11). Other had the very large step ratio of 3.60.
The step ratios for the two groups were more modest: 1.35 for Group A and 0.76 for Group A.
Table 2 Runcorn: step ratio, 2024-2025
. GE24 BE25 step ratio (Runcorn)
Conservative 16.0 7.2 0.45
Labour 52.9 38.7 0.73
Reform 18.1 38.7 2.14
Lib Dem 5.1 2.9 0.57
Green 6.4 7.1 1.11
Other 1.5 5.4 3.60
Group A 34.1 45.9 1.35
Group B 64.4 48.7 0.76
. 100 100 -
We now compare the Runcorn step ratios with the national step ratios. The greatest discrepancy between national and Runcorn step ratios is for the Conservatives and for the Lib Dems, the Runcorn step ratio being half the national step ratio. This may arise because of tactical voting, switching to Reform and Labour respectively, both of whom had Runcorn step ratios higher than national step ratios.
Table 3 Step ratios, 2024-2025, national and Runcorn
. step ratio
nation Runcorn
Conservative 0.89 0.45 Runcorn lower
Labour 0.68 0.73
Reform 1.75 2.14
Lib Dem 1.15 0.57 Runcorn lower
Green 1.41 1.11 Runcorn lower
Other 1.50 3.60
Group A 1.24 1.35
Group B 0.90 0.76
… Model: national step ratio plus group 50% tactical voting
National step ratios are different from Runcorn step ratios and so, on their own, do not provide a good prediction of the result. However they do predict the two top parties and hence the likely direction of tactical voting.
Table 4 shows the model for an assumption that the national step ratio will apply and then there will be tactical voting within the two groups at a level of 50%. The model fits quite well for the group results, but there is an error in Group B and Other. Looking at the errors for the parties, the model overestimates Labour and underestimates Green and Other. This suggests that tactical voting by the Greens occurs at a lower level; and that there is a loss from Labour to Other.
Table 4 Runcorn, model: national step ratio plus group 50% tactical voting
. GE24 model BE25 error
Conservative 16.0 7.1 7.2 -0.1
Labour 52.9 43.5 38.7 4.8
Reform 18.1 38.7 38.7 0
Lib Dem 5.1 2.9 2.9 0
Green 6.4 4.5 7.1 -2.6
Other 1.5 3.2 5.4 -2.2
Group A 34.1 45.8 45.9 -0.1
Group B 62.9 50.9 48.7 2.2
Other 1.5 3.3 5.4 -2.2
. 100 100 0
The national self … empires in Europe … the Ottoman empire
Click: The national self … empires in Europe … the Ottoman empire
This is part of Nations and world: variation and self.
USA power: self and other; positive and negative
File USA power: self and other; positive and negative
1 Trump’s remarks at the World Economic Forum: a golden age
2 USA territory, now and in the Gilded Age: self v other
3 USA trade, now and in the Gilded Age: self v other
USA tariffs, 1841 and 1870 … Andrew Carnegie … (and me)
Generalising the Richardson model: trade war … reciprocation, interaction
4 The air crash: systems thinking and negative other thinking as a default option
5 “The price of Trump’s power politics …”
6 Trump and The Times
7 Trump and the world
8 UK opinion: democracy and dictatorship
9 Power: self and other; positive and negative…
10 … the death penalty – USA and UK opinion
11 Information sources in the USA
THE END