Ukraine 71 and World Society … also Positive Value 18
Thursday 29th June 2023
…
Ukraine ... and World Society 2023
…
Contents
…
1 Positive value 18
Holiday with a friend; celebration of a friend
Positive value … different tastes
…
2 World society
United Nations
News links from around the world
JPR Book Notes
…
3 The war in Ukraine
Seventy weeks in, Thursday 29th June 2023
The military situation
…
4 The Russian mutiny
…
5 United? Divided? … A third way? … M-shaped distribution
…
News items
Some of the items appearing below are from The Times … or, in the case of Sunday, from The Observer. “4, 1” indicates 4th June, 2023, page 1. Although not named, the work of the journalists is appreciated – indeed it is what I depend on. I buy the paper version but sometimes cite the online version (The Observer has open access but The Times does not.)
…
1 Positive value 18
…
Holiday with a friend … celebration of a friend
Catherine and I had a short holiday with our friend Sue who lives in Goring on Thames … Sitting on the pub garden bench by the Thames at Lechlade. Overnight at Chichester. I walked across a dry grass field at Thameshead – the source of the River Thames - down into and up out of a dip that would have had some water in wetter seasons. Cotswold Sculpture Park. Coffee mocha ice cream in an old-style cone sitting under the feet of King Alfred in Wantage market square. Thanks to my “inch to the mile” Ordnance Survey map.
…
A different Ordnance Survey map – Midlothian. A different field. Different people. When would that be? 1961? The twelve of us townie boy scouts, including Alastair, chased by young heifers/bullocks/whatever they were. Now two days ago an invitation to the remembering of Alastair – a photo of him, his familiar welcoming grinning smile.
…
Positive value … different tastes
A great expression of love. He had watched it on television and so had the other four: Glastonbury and Elton John. Millions had no doubt shared the experience and shared the thought.
I stayed quiet. The content and its mass nature were not to my taste. In this Catherine shares my taste. One or two newspaper columnists shared our view. No doubt others did not.
…
2 World society
…
United Nations
UN News: https://news.un.org/en/
UN space agency (UNOOSA); near-earth objects
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1138232
UN Security Council: https://press.un.org/en/content/security-council
Missing persons in Syria: https://press.un.org/en/2023/ga12514.doc.htm
UN General Assembly:
https://press.un.org/en/content/general-assembly/meetings-coverage
Transformative actions … prosperous societies
https://press.un.org/en/2023/ecosoc7133.doc.htm
…
News links from around the world
India: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/
to spread harmony:
USA: https://www.washingtonpost.com/
China: https://www.globaltimes.cn/
Russia: https://tass.com/
UK: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
France: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/; https://www.lemonde.fr/ (in French)
Japan: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/
Nigeria: https://guardian.ng/
Brazil: https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/; https://www.folha.uol.com.br/ (in Portuguese)
...
JPR Book Notes
https://www.prio.org/journals/jpr/booknotes
…
3 The war in Ukraine
…
3.1 The mutiny
Mutiny in Russia (Ukraine 71.1)
…
3.2 The military situation
Seventy weeks in, Thursday 29th June 2023
…
Russia, Tass … government:
Lavrov briefing: https://tass.com/politics/1641129
Scholz on mutiny: https://tass.com/world/1640417
Russia and Belarus: http://government.ru/en/news/48881/
…
Moscow Times;
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/:
…
Ukraine, Kyiv Post … Kyiv Independent … president:
attack on Russian base:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18914
https://kyivindependent.com/ ;
Poland, nuclear weapons:
https://kyivindependent.com/poland-wants-to-host-nato-nukes-over-belarus-threat/
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/all
Ukraine stronger than people think:
…
BBC: War in Ukraine:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60525350.
…
Suspected Wagner site in Belarus:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66052060
…
The Map 30th June 2023:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60506682 .
…
ISW: Interactive Time Lapse Map of Russia’s War on Ukraine
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895
…
https://www.understandingwar.org/ :
June 30th. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces seized the "strategic initiative" in the Bakhmut direction and are currently conducting a broad offensive in the area. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar similarly stated that Ukrainian forces seized the "operational initiative" in the area and reported that Ukrainian forces advanced 1,200m in the direction of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and 1,500m in the direction of Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut). Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi also stated that Ukrainian forces have the "strategic initiative" in a phone conversation with Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley on June 29.ISW previously assessed that Ukrainian forces had gained the initiative at every level of war across almost the entire front following the Russian capture of Bakhmut on May 21. Ukrainian officials are likely now acknowledging that Ukrainian forces possess the initiative in order to signal that Ukrainian forces intend to leverage it to a greater degree.
…
Johnson’s Russia List:
https://russialist.org/jrl-newswatch-prigozhin-went-free-what-about-these-russians-washington-post/
…
Russia Matters:
https://www.russiamatters.org/ ;
https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/mutiny-russia-what-happened-whats-next-and-what-be-thankful ;
…
RUSI
…
4 The mutiny in Russia
Mutiny in Russia (Ukraine 71.1)
…
5 United? Divided? … A third way? … M-shaped distribution
It is common to have concerns that a country is divided rather than united. One response to a perception that society is divided into two opposing factions is to suggest that there is a ‘third way’.
The notion of a third way was espoused by Tony Blair and Bill Clinton and based on Amitai Etzioni’s notion of communitarianism:
“Etzioni regretted the binary nature of politics on both sides of the Atlantic which he complained leaves no room for a third way. … “As a communitarian I don’t fit into either the liberal or the conservative category. … Hence when the media seek a pair of comments on each issue, one of each kind, there is no room for a third position.” ”
Obituary, 24, 25. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amitai_Etzioni
A lynchpin of Blair’s New Labour was Margaret McDonagh who died last week. Across the party divide but also a centrist, Daniel Finkelstein gives a fulsome tribute:
“she had little patience for what she saw as the self-indulgence of the far-left (and I for self-indulgence on the right).”
“She was my political rival but a force for good …an exceptional activist whose wish to improve Britain demands respect, whatever your party.” 28. 27
Back in the early 1980s the UK seemed polarised between Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives and Michael Foot’s Labour. The Gang of Four broke away from the Labour Party to form the SDP (Social Democratic Party) in 1981, a new party of the centre. Early on Daniel Finkelstein became chair of the Young Social Democrats. After some initial success the fortunes of the new party faded and its members returned either to the centre left or to the centre right - as Finkelstein did - and the party itself joined forces with the old centre party, the Liberals.
Briefly, during the Brexit standoff in the UK parliament, a centrist grouping formed but was short-lived.
Americans, unhappy with both Biden and Trump, may opt for an outsider, suggests Gerard Baker. If there were a Biden-Trump contest then 23% would vote for a third party candidate, a USA Today poll suggests. 23, 23.
Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/unhappy-americans-may-opt-for-an-outsider-077gd9fvr ; 23, 23.
In Israel attempts at a centrist government have failed and Netanyahu leads a rightist coalition government.
Meanwhile in France centrist Macron faces challenges from the left and the right. It may be that the next presidential election will see the end of centrist government.
In general a common pattern is an M-shaped distribution of party voting: a centre-right party and a centre-left party are dominant whereas the centre is weak and the two extremes are weak. Although staying weak, the strength of the centre fluctuates.
…
Voting theory
Voting theory has it that if there are only two parties then competition between the two parties will lead to each party offering a platform corresponding to the median voter on the left-right policy continuum. If a party moves away from the median or ‘centre’ then that party will lose to the party offering the median. In game theory terms the median/centre is a stable equilibrium.
If there are more than two parties, then there is no stable equilibrium. Wherever the parties are located at least one can move its policy position to increase its vote at the expense of another party.
Moreover even if there are just two parties, a new party can enter and disturb the equilibrium. Where there are more than two parties a new entrant may either appear in the centre or at an extreme.
…
Voting method
Given the positions of the parties, different voting methods give different results.
…
Optimal social choice: the centre
…
Suboptimal social choice
Party competition and voting method may give rise to suboptimal social choice.
…
Party prejudice
Party prejudice may ‘distort’ values and prevent the optimum or centre being chosen
…
THE END