Ukraine 10
Negativity systems … France … All-the-People Democracy?
Contents
Nine weeks in, Thursday 28th April 2022
The military situation … the Map
Nine weeks in, Thursday 28th April 2022
The military situation … the Map
Appalling
Hansard: Ukraine Update
World history
Violence … negativity
The reciprocation of negativity
Participation in negativity
The contagion of negativity
The reciprocation and contagion of negativity: models
Negativity … self and other … us and them
Motives for reciprocation
…
Would a better democracy in 2014 have avoided 2022?
…
France
Is there a need for a better democracy in France?
The second round tells us less than the first round
Is the second round predictable from the first round? …
… a two-dimensional model
Is the second dimension partly about EU exit?
Time. Flows between parties, first to second round …
… relative value depends on relative proximity
Space. Geography
Social space … Middle opinion democracy
[Proportional democracy]
“The president of all”
All-the-People Democracy?
[The formation of opinion]
[Aspects and stages of the democratic process]
…
Nurses for all
Ukraine and Russia Friendship
Ukraine and Russia … and me, 1961
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Nine weeks in, Thursday 28th April 2022
The items appearing below are from The Times … or, in the case of Sunday 24th April, from The Observer. “26, 1” indicates 26th April 2022, page 1.
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The military situation … the Map
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60506682
“Russian forces are continuing to make advances in east of the country but strong resistance from Ukrainian troops is slowing their progress.
Here are the latest developments:
Russian forces continue to make small gains around eastern city of Izyum
But strong Ukrainian defences in Donbas region are holding for now
Russian forces still trying to clear Mariupol of last Ukrainian troops
Concern grows that Russia wants conflict to spread to Moldova”
Also:
“Push Russia out of whole of Ukraine, says Truss.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61251698
It is not clear what the status of these opposing Russian and UK aspirations are.
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Appalling
January
Baby Kira is born.
February / March
“a Russian example of shock and awe”
“Another aspect of the war that’s interesting to me is that in some ways we’re
seeing a familiar battle between an empire and a nation state.”
April
Baby Kira dies.
What is happening is appalling. So appalling, should I even be writing about it?
“Mother and baby killed by missile strike on Odesa.” 25, 12
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfDRhrUQzzM
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Hansard: Ukraine Update
“Invasion has cost Russia an estimated 15,000 lives.” 26, 1.
Ben Wallace, Defence Secretary said: “I don’t celebrate the loss of anyone’s life and when I see the huge casualty rates of Russian soldiers, as a former soldier I think it is a disgrace, a betrayal of those young men.”
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World history
World history: the growth and distribution dynamics of power, truth, value chapter
World history: progress and destruction, independence and incorporation: chapter
Power trajectories: Western Dominance and Eastern Growth: chapter
The present divide between Russia and the West has prompted me to look back at the history of that divide …
The ‘Bering Strait’ (1728) and the ‘Alaska Purchase’ (1867) divided Russia from America and reflected the Europeanisation of a North (suitably defined) – also Europeanised is South America (1494), the Antipodes (1606) and Antarctica (1840).
During World War I, Europe was divided by the Western Front and the Eastern Front, into west, middle and east; and somewhat similarly during World War II.
With the defeat of Nazi Germany, Yalta (1945) paved the way for the Iron Curtain (1946) between West and East. The formation of NATO (1949) and the Warsaw Pact (1955) established a boundary between West and East.
The Warsaw Pact was dissolved in 1991, and the Soviet Union collapsed, breaking up into Russia and fourteen other independent states – as a result of votes in these states. Ukraine was established as an independent state in 1991. Subsequently the Warsaw Pact countries have become members of NATO …
Up to the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the boundary between NATO and the Warsaw Pact was the boundary between West Germany and East Germany (DDR and GDR) – reunified in 1990.
Now in 2022, NATO would be immediately on the border with Russia, were it not for Ukraine, Belarus (protests in 2020-2021) - and Finland and Sweden (both interested in NATO membership), scarcely 100 miles from St Petersburg.
Born in Leningrad, Putin will have been schooled in: the Swedish conquest of Ingria in 1629; the founding of St Petersburg in 1703 by Tsar Peter the Great on the site of a Swedish fortress captured in the Great Northern War, 1700-1721; Napoleon at the gates of St Petersburg in 1812; the farthest Austro-German advance just short of Petrograd in 1918; and the siege of Leningrad in 1941-1944.
From a Russian perspective these are all viewed as invasions of Russian territory followed by Russian recovery of its territory. In some cases, recovery is violent. In such cases, from the outsider’s perspective, ‘Russian recovery’ is viewed as Russian violent aggression.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_America#European_colonization https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/antipode
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica#Territorial_claims
https://www.britannica.com/event/Eastern-Front-World-War-I-history
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Northern_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_Empire#/media/File:Swedish_Empire.svg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yalta_Conference
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Iron-Curtain-Speech
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Pact
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Independence
https://www.britannica.com/place/Germany/The-reunification-of-Germany
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus%E2%80%93Russia_relations
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Violence … negativity
Motive, means and opportunity. For Putin, the motive is history – the history of Russia. The means in the case of Baby Kira is a cruise missile, possibly fired from a submarine in the Black Sea. [The strike] may be a sign of Russian frustration (25,12) …
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The reciprocation of negativity
…. The city had been expecting some kind of revenge for the sinking by anti-ship Neptune missiles of Moskva, flagship of the Black Sea fleet (25,12). The current situation has involved a complex system of reciprocations, of moves and countermoves.
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Participation in negativity
I find it helpful to talk of the notion of ‘participation’ in an activity: participation in violence … participation in negativity. An actor has a propensity to participate … in violence … in negativity. There is a distribution of propensities – some actors are more likely to participate than others. Participation over time has a model which reveals frequency and recency effects.
A few weeks ago I discussed ‘violent Russia?’. In other words, what is Russia’s propensity for violence?
“Russia’s casual savagery is seared into its soul. Stalinism has spawned a people who believe brutality works.” 27, .
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russias-casual-savagery-is-seared-into-its-soul-xptcwsj02 ;
David Aaronovitch’s article prompted a number of letters, all supportive. Some follow Aaronovitch and see a return to “the old Soviet ways” while another believes that “centuries of such casual savagery at all levels means that most Russians will never be on the same wavelength to most Europeans”. Another talks about the means producing the ends: “a society permanently scarred by injustice and terror”. There is also refence to “contempt for truth” “sabre-rattling” and “cry-bully complaints”, 29, 32.
The belief that brutality works is an example of a belief in the relationship between participation propensity and performance.
Population flows of participation and performance, pp. 173-179 in:
Conflict, Complexity and Mathematical Social Science. 2010.
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The contagion of negativity
To begin with Russia invaded Ukraine. There followed the reciprocation of negativity between these two countries. At the same time there was contagion of negativity as more countries became involved in the conflict; and as countries not involved decided to increase their military activity.
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The reciprocation and contagion of negativity: models
Thanks to COVID, people are aware that there are mathematical models for the contagion of disease. These and other models have been applied to the reciprocation and contagion of social negativity. Here are some studies discussed by Burt (2010).
.(1) the Richardson model of the arms race, p. 236;
.(2) Kilgour and Zagare’s ‘perfect deterrence theory’ to explain the limitation of conflicts, pp. 239-240.
.(3) Simulation models: tit-for-tat with regret and forgiveness (Axelrod), p. 186;
.(4) Simulation models: What happens if we allow populations and strategies to evolve? Is cooperation a successful strategy in evolutionary terms? pp. 186-188.
.(5) Complexity theory … herd behaviour. pp. 205-210.
.(6) The limitations on truth and the speculative pursuit of value. pp. 218-219.
See: Conflict, Complexity and Mathematical Social Science. 2010.
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Negativity … self and other … us and them
There needs to be a section on this here but I have not written it yet.
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Motives for reciprocation
In his model of the arms race Richardson suggested that the motive for reciprocation was mutual fear about the future, the fear that the other side would attack. However what seems to be in Putin’s mind at the present is (his perception of) the past, to Russia being the victim of history and Russia needing to take action to redress the injustice of the past.
West Russia middle eat and empires victims
Recip neg creates victims so always jusrt
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Would a better democracy in 2014 have avoided 2022?
In 2014 Ukraine experienced protest, uprising and invasion. If a better democracy had been in place, would these events still have happened? … and would this year’s Russian invasion of Ukraine still have happened? These questions about Ukraine are not ones I shall address this week …
… what I shall do is address a somewhat similar question in relation to France with the thought that it might help address the questions for Ukraine and indeed have implications for the future post-war situation.
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France
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Is there a need for a better democracy in France?
On Sunday Emmanuel Macron was elected President of France, 58.5% to 41.5%. There had been concern that he might lose to Marine Le Pen, which some thought would be a great catastrophe for France, the EU and the West. Would a better democracy have reduced the risk of Le Pen? Would a better democracy reduce the risk of Le Pen winning in the future? Would it address more general concerns about the political situation in France?
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The second round tells us less than the first round
I am being rather pedantic here: it is simply that only two candidates give rise to only two percentages. These two percentages tell us less than the twelve percentages which were yielded by the candidates in the first round.
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Is the second round predictable from the first round? …
… a two-dimensional model
A one-dimensional left-right model
In my report on the first round, I listed the parties left to right (from the bottom to the top of my table there). In what follows I make use of a model which makes a variety of assumptions about the left-right dimension.
From the percentage votes, Macron voters were between the 34.4 and 62.2 percentiles of the voter distribution on the left-right dimension. His middle position was the 47.3 percentile.
From the percentage votes, Le Pen voters were between the 69.1 and 92.3 percentiles. Her middle position was the 80.7 percentile.
Halfway between their middle positions is the 64 percentile. So 64% are closer to Macron than to Le Pen; and 36% are closer to Le Pen than to Macron.
This 64% to 36% based on the first round compares with the actual second round vote of 58% to 42%. So the one-dimensional left-right model substantially overestimates the outcome for Macron.
A two-dimensional model
As well as a left-right dimension we imagine a second dimension and suppose it is equally weighted with the first dimension.
Suppose that, on the second dimension, voters are split 52% Macron to 48% Le Pen.
Suppose that the overall outcome is the equal weighting of the two dimensions. Then Macron has (64+52)/2=58% and Le Pen has (36+48)/2=42%. These are the actual results – necessarily so because I chose the numbers for the second dimension so that it would be so.
This is all very speculative but it does show how a two-dimensional model might work.
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Is the second dimension partly about EU exit?
Macron is a strong advocate of the EU whereas Le Pen has been arguing for Frexit although more recently softening her stance. The corresponding situation in the UK was that the centrist Liberal Democrat party was committed to ‘Remain’ in the EU, whereas Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party forced through for ‘Leave’. The evidence clearly identified a two-dimensional model.
See my UK and EU, Brexit: web page.
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Time. Flows between parties, first to second round …
… relative value depends on relative proximity
My report on the first round ordered the twelve candidates left to right. Included in this ordering were: Melenchon, Jadot, Macron, Pecresse, Le Pen, Zemmour. The second round percentages for (Macron, Abstain, Le Pen) were:
Melenchon first round voters (42, 24, 17), Jadot first round voters (65, 16, 6), Macron first round voters (98, 1, 1), Pecresse first round voters (53, 15, 18), Le Pen first round voters (3, 5, 91), Zemmour first round voters (10, 14, 73). These percentages along the left-right dimensions are:
Macron: 42, 65, 98*, 53, 3*, 10
Abstain: 24, 16, 1*, 15, 5*, 14
Le Pen: 17, 6, 1*, 18, 91*, 73
The relative vote for Macron is 42/17, 65/6, …
The relative vote for Le Pen is 17/42, 6/65, …
The second round percentages do depend on the position on the left-right continuum but not in the simple way of continuously increasing or decreasing. Rather:
the relative vote for Macron depends on the relative distance of the voter group
from the two candidates;
the relative vote for Le Pen depends on the relative distance of the voter group
from the two candidates;
This comes about because the relative percentage depends on relative value; and the relative value depends on relative proximity. See Figure 1.
Warning: the figure includes ad hoc adjustments to the numbers.
Figure 1 Relative percentage depends on relative proximity.
relative percentage (0 to infinity)
[not available here, sorry]
. relative proximity (0 to 6) … [relative distance is infinity to 0]
Mathematical note. Assume relative percentage equals relative value (Luce choice). Value is a function of distance. Relative value is a ratio of functions of distances. Distance is a function of proximity. ‘So’ relative percentage depends on relative proximity.
We now consider abstentions. Tentatively we suggest that abstention percentages depend on the product of the distances:
Distances from Macron, left to right are: 2, 1, 0*, 1, 2, 3.
Distances from Le Pen, left to right are: 4, 3, 2, 1, 0*, 1.
The product of the two distances are: 8, 3, 0*, 1, 0*, 3.
The abstention percentages are: 24, 16, 1*, 15, 5*, 14.
The greater the geometric mean of the two distances the greater the abstention percentage.
See also: 15 A gravitational model of flows in political opinion space, UK 2017
and: 5 Time, 1789-2020: USA presidential elections
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Space. Geography
District results show Le Pen winning along the Mediterranean coast and Corsica, and in the North East.
Rural communities; and towns with 2,000 to 20,000; and 20,000 to 100, 000 gave Macron 50, 51 and 52%; over 100,000 gave him 63%; and Paris 70%.
The results for French territories are discussed in:
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220425-five-takeaways-from-france-s-presidential-vote
See also: Trump: Mass, Space and Time in USA Elections, 1789-2020
Click: 4 Geographical space, 2008-2020: Obama to Biden.
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Social space … Middle opinion democracy
Middle opinion democracy involves selecting the middle candidate as the winner, by means of identifying the middle of the distribution of voter opinions. From the previous section, Macron is the middle candidate both overall and on the two dimension (on the second dimension by the tiniest of margins).
Age
It has been said that, in the first round, Macron won the older voters but lost the younger voters to the extremes.
This is true according to the criterion of top percentages. Amongst the young (18-24 year old), it was 31 for the far-left, 26 for Macron and 20 for the far-right. So 51 for the extremes and just 26 for Macron.
Amongst the old ‘boomers’, it was 9 for the far-left, 41 for Macron and 13 for the far-right.
… but not true, according to the criterion of middle opinion democracy. Macron is the middle winner in both cases. Amongst the old ‘boomers’, Macron beats the far-left 54 to 9, and he beats the far-right 50 to 13. And even amongst the young, Macron beats the far-left 46 to 31, and he beats the far-right 57 to 20.
The second round results show the young voting 61% for Macron and the old voting 71%, but the three middle age decade groups voting just 51%, 53% and 49% for Macron (24 to 59 year olds).
Economics
Struggling to make ends meet gave him 41%; and not struggling gave him 66%.
https://www.politico.eu/article/macrons-france-vs-le-pens-france-in-charts/
Turnout
Second round turnout was 71.9%, the lowest of the last six elections – and Macron’s previous election was 74.6%, the second lowest.
See https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220425-five-takeaways-from-france-s-presidential-vote
See also: Trump: Mass, Space and Time in USA Elections, 1789-2020
Click: 3 Social space, 2020: Trump v Biden
Satisfaction and Democracy, The Middle Opinion: in Chapters 9 to 18 in web page
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Proportional democracy
There needs to be a section on this here but I have not written it yet.
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“The president of everyone”
“I am no longer the candidate of a party, but the president of everyone”
Emmanuel gives victory speech following the election results (24 April 2022):
He hailed the Republic and France. He acknowledged everyone: the majority who had voted for him, those who had abstained and those who had voted for Madame Le Pen. It would be his responsibility and those around him to find a response to these groups, to their anger and disagreements and to what had led them either to refuse to choose or to choose the extreme right; and to the divisions and differences that have been expressed. When he referred to Madame Le Pen “who is disappointed this evening”, some booed but he said: “No, don’t boo anyone, from the beginning I asked you never to boo.” And striving every day to respect everyone, while working for a fairer society, with equality between women and men.
…
“I also know that many of our compatriots voted for me today not to support the ideas that I hold but to block those of the far right. And I want to thank them here and tell them that I am aware that this vote binds me for the years to come.
The president promised a “refounded method” to govern France, assuring that “no one will be left by the wayside”. “This new era will not be the continuity of the five-year term which is ending”, assured the outgoing president, calling for “benevolent and respectful” in a country “steeped in so many doubts, so many divisions”.
…
The short address ended with the EU’s Anthem of Europe, Beethoven’s Ode to Joy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jo_-KoBiBG0
The speech on video https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/24/emmanuel-macron-wins-french-presidential-election-say-projected-results
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All-the-People Democracy?
Macron’s words in his victory speech – aren’t they what all election winners say? Here is Margaret Thatcher’s on her first election victory in 1979:
“And I would just like to remember some words of St. Francis of Assisi which I think are really just particularly apt at the moment. ‘Where there is discord, may we bring harmony. Where there is error, may we bring truth. Where there is doubt, may we bring faith. And where there is despair, may we bring hope’ … . [end p1] … . and to all the British people—howsoever they voted—may I say this. Now that the Election is over, may we get together and strive to serve and strengthen the country of which we're so proud to be a part.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhXlAGmUitU
What followed was not harmony but division. And Donald Trump, I seem to remember, didn’t even try to offer harmony. Joe Biden did offer harmony at the start, but despite this division has now set in.
This week former Prime Minister David Cameron has written that too often we talk about the right policy and only as an afterthought do we talk about “cohesion: the central question of how we can create the multi-ethnic, multifaith, opportunity-based democracy that we want our country to be”.
“Call to end Prevent grievance culture.”
“We can’t let strategy be defeated by extremists.” 26, 1, 8.
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The formation of opinion
There needs to be a section on this here but I have not written it yet.
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Aspects and stages of the democratic process
There needs to be a section on this here but I have not written it yet.
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Nurses for all
https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o535 ;
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Ukraine and Russia … family and friends
“Cousins fight on opposite sides in a war tearing blood ties apart.
A Ukrainian hates the Russian he grew up with.” 19, 12-13.
“The monument to friendship with Russia in Kyiv is being torn down.” 27, 11.
“Nurses fearful after show of unity. The Ukrainian and Russian nurses who carried a cross at the Coliseum on Good Friday …” 19, 12-13.
https://www.romereports.com/en/2022/04/11/the-nurses-work-together-at-a-hospital-in-rome/ ;
https://www.rferl.org/a/pope-friday-cross-ukrainian-russian/31805533.html .
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Ukraine and Russia … and me, 1961
Sixty years ago. It was an away match - back in 1961 or thereabouts. Our Royal High School chess team played in the adult league. We sat along one side of the long table opposite our Ukrainian Ex-Serviceman’s Club opponents in a fine room in Royal Terrace, a long bookcase on the opposite wall behind them …
http://www.ukrainiansintheuk.info/eng/01/orglist-e.htm#exservice ;
Still 1961. Mum and Dad laughed when I returned from George IV Bridge Library. Dad must have said proudly to Mum that I was off to the library in pursuit of knowledge. “Look what he’s brought back” said Mum, “more books on chess.”
In fact they were the books on the Botvinnik v. Smyslov world championship matches in 1954, 1957 and 1958. Even now, sit me down at a chess set and I shall still imitate Botvinnik’s French Defence, Winawer Variation, with B-QN5, P-QB4 and then R-QB1 to attack the triple pawns! (The triple pawns is the picture I have in my mind.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Defence#Winawer_Variation:_3...Bb4 ;
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END