[W5.1 PART 1 The first two sections]
[W5.3 PART 3 The main part, Section 7.2]
PART 1 The first two sections
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 A simple account
2.1 This week’s by-elections: the headlines
2.2 Six recent by-elections
2.3 A simple model
2.4 Beyond the simple model
2.5 Conditional statements about the next general election
PART 2 Sections 3 to 8
3 Regions and constituencies: density-dependent survival rates?
4 How the vote changes: percentage change, step ratio or change in z-score?
5 Scotland parliamentary elections: SNP and LibDem step ratios, 2007 - 2011
6 Local government elections, 4th May 2023 … step ratios
7 Local by-elections
7.1 George Galloway and Bradford West, March 2011
7.2 The main part … England: the ‘historic’ by-elections, 20th July 2023
… see Part 3
7.3 Scotland: SNP loses Rutherglen, 5th October 2023
7.4 England: another two losses, 19th October 2023
8 Conditional statemen
PART 3 The main part, Section 7.2
England: the ‘historic’ by-elections, 20th July 2023
1 Introduction
Part 3.1 Statics - the situation at one point in time: 2019
Part 3.2 Change
Part 3.3 Flow
Part 3.4 Political space (not yet available)
Part 3.5 The distribution of size (not yet available)
Part 3.6 Gravitational flow (not yet available)
1 Introduction
The ‘historic’ by-elections, 20th July 2023
Sources
Part 3.1 Statics - the situation at one point in time, the 2019 general election
The seats
“The people” … the sets of individuals
The candidates in 2019
The results in 2019
Individual preferences and the social choice mechanism output
The winner and the ordering of the parties
The size distribution
The size distribution as a consequence of a spatial distribution
The parties in political space, July 2023
The distribution of size in political space
Part 3.2 Change
2 Measures of change
3 The results, national and local
The winner and the ordering of the parties, 2019 and 2023
National change: the 2019 general election and the July 2023 polls
Local change: Uxbridge, Frome and Selby; 2019 and 2023
General and specific volatility: the results
4 Changes in the Conservative vote
Measures of change in the Conservative vote: difference, swing and step ratio
Predicting the local Conservative vote using the national measures
Part 3.3 Flow
5 The flow of individual voters
6 Flows between Conservative and Other
Staying Conservative: the survival rate, 2019 to 2023
Becoming Conservative: flow/transition rates, 2019 to 2023
Conservative and Other: the 2x2 transition matrix
The national 2x2 transition equations, 2019 and 2023; local ‘predictions’
Using the transition matrix to predict the Nadine Dorries Mid-Bedfordshire by-election
7 Flows between the individual parties
Staying with the party: the national survival rates for the other two main parties (2019GE – July 2023)
The transition rates for the three main parties
The three main parties: the transition matrix
The national 3xn transition equations, 2019 and 2023, local ‘predictions’
Part 3.4 Political space (not yet available)
Part 3.5 The distribution of size (not yet available)
Part 3.6 Gravitational flow (not yet available)
Gordon Burt, 22nd October 2023
THE END