SNP, Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in Scotland … my book
SNP, Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in Scotland … my book
0 Today, Friday: the result
1 Prelude to the Hamilton, Scotland, by-election, 5 June 2025
2 The reports on the May 2025 elections
3 The book: Local elections and national opinion – a model
1 Prelude to the Hamilton, Scotland, by-election, 5 June 2025
Today, Thursday, in Hamilton
Background (May 2025)
Group A and Group B: parties in political space
National
Current opinion polls, Scotland
Scottish Parliament election 2021
Scotland opinion, 2021-2025
Step ratios, comparing 2021 and 2025
Local
The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election: a step ratio prediction
National step ratio and local voting
0 Today, Friday: the result
BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1w343v4znxt
John Curtice comments:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/25218946.john-curtice-warning-snp-labour-hamilton-by-election/
…
The prediction
1 SNP; 2 Labour; 3 Reform; 4 Conservative; 5 Green; 6 Lib Dem
The result
1 Labour; 2 SNP; 3 Reform; 4 Conservative; 5 Green; 6 Lib Dem
Correct/incorrect?
SNP and Labour swap first and second place. Otherwise the ordering is correct.
…
The prediction
1 SNP 33.7%; 2 Labour 27.9%; 3 Reform 12.8%; 4 Conservative 9.6%; 5 Green 8.6%; 6 Lib Dem 4.1%.
Group A 22.4%; Group B 74.3%; Other 3.3%.
The result
1 SNP 29.4%; 2 Labour 31.6%; 3 Reform 26.1%; 4 Conservative 6.0%; 5 Green 2.6%; 6 Lib Dem 2.0%.
Group A 32.1%; Group B 65.6%; Other 2.2%.
The errors
1 SNP -4.3%; 2 Labour +3.7%; 3 Reform +13.3%; 4 Conservative -3.6%; 5 Green -6%; 6 Lib Dem -2.1%.
Group A +9.7%; Group B -8.7%; Other -1.1%.
Comment
There was a large error in predicting Reform and Group A. Reform benefitted both from extra* flow from within Group A (from the Conservatives) and from outside from Group B. The next largest error was for the Greens.
In report: “Note: Reform, Green and Other are not directly derived from step ratios.”
*Over and above the model.
There was an extra percentage for Labour, approximately balanced by the lesser percentage for SNP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Hamilton,_Larkhall_and_Stonehouse_by-election
…
Other news
New female Reform MP calls for ban on burka.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cql2pzr5qlqo
Reform Chairman Zia Yusuf resigns.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq54p9epdg6o
1 Prelude to the Hamilton, Scotland, by-election, 2025
Not two-party politics, but multi-party politics.
Last year, a Conservative slump – this year, also a Labour slump. And before that, in Scotland, an SNP slump. So Reform prospers.
Last year, my online book – now this year the application of the ideas in my book,
.(1) last month to the UK local elections and the Runcorn by-election.
.(2) and now to the Hamilton by-election in Scotland, today Thursday
Today, Thursday, in Hamilton
The result will be the same as Hamilton in 2021, albeit at a lower level for SNP, Labour and Conservatives – in that order – with new contestant Reform taking third place. Lib Dem stays low. The Greens will stay in single figures.
Group A and Group B will do much the same as in 2021, Group B dominates but is slightly lower …
… assuming the results follow national opinion polls, and the local Hamilton result in 2021.
But I might be wrong and Reform might come first!
Background (May 2025)
Last summer saw the end in Britain of fourteen years of rule by the Conservative party. Their vote had slumped in opinion polls and in local elections and this slump was repeated in the general election.
Now a year later local elections and a by-election are being held. Have the Conservatives recovered? What about the other parties? Last year Labour won a handsome majority of seats but with only an unremarkable percentage of the vote. How has being in government changed this percentage? The results for Nigel Farage’s party last year were opposite to that of Labour: Reform won five seats but a sizeable percentage, 14.3 of the vote. How has this changed over the past year?
In addressing these questions it is important to think about how we conceptualise changes in the percentage vote. The traditional approach is to think in terms of the swing from one party to another. However the dramatic slump in the Conservative vote led some analysts to the notion of proportional change. In general the notion of step ratio and a voter flow model are helpful.
There are national results and local results. How do these relate to one another?
There are many opinion polls and few elections. How do these two sources of information compare?
Group A and Group B: parties in political space
One dimension of political space is support for Brexit. The proportion of a party’s supporters who voted Remain in the 2016 referendum provides a measure of a party’s support for Brexit. Four parties have a high Remain score – referred to as Group B - and two parties have a low Remain score – referred to as Group A.
B SNP 0.83
B Labour 0.81
B Green 0.78
B Lib Dem 0.7
- Plaid C 0.5
- Other 0.5
A Conserv 0.39
A Reform 0.13
Reform also has a lower class and a lower female score and a higher age score and a low London score.
National
Current opinion polls, Scotland
How do voters intend to vote at the next Scottish Parliament elections in 2026? The midpoint of four recent opinion polls put the SNP on 35%, ranging between 33% and 36%. Labour are half of this with 18%, followed closely by Reform on 16%, ahead of Conservatives on 12%, with Lib Dems on 10% and Greens on 7%.
Grouping the parties, Group A has 28% - much less than Group B on 70%. Group A has Conservatives and Reform. Group B has Labour, Lib Dem and Green … and SNP (not present outside Scotland).
A Reform 16% (ranging 12 to 19)
A Conservative 12% (11-13)
B Lib Dem 10% (8-12)
B Green 7% (5-9)
B Labour 18% (14-22)
B SNP 35% (33-36)
…
Group A 28% (24-31)
Group B 70% (67-72)
…
Source 1
Scotland opinion polls; end of polling date 11 April to 30 May 2025; four polls
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
Scottish Parliament election 2021
The previous Scottish Parliament election was in 2021. The SNP were just short of an absolute majority on 47.7%. Less than half this were Conservatives on 21.9% and Labour on 21.6%. The Lib Dems had 6.9% and Greens only 1.3%. Reform did not contest the Constituencies.
Group A was simply the Conservatives on 21.9%. Group B totalled 77.5%. Other was 0.6%.
A Conservative 21.9%
B Lib Dem 6.9%
B Green 1.3%
B Labour 21.6%
B SNP 47.7%
…
Group A 21.9%
Group B 77.5%
Other 0.6%
Source 2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election
Note: these are the constituency votes. Reform UK had 5,793 votes, 0.21%, in the regional votes (in other words, almost zero).
Scotland opinion, 2021-2025
Comparing the election in 2021 with the current opinion in 2025, SNP still dominates the other parties, despite being at a lower level; Labour is down somewhat; the Conservative vote has almost halved while Reform has jumped from zero to third place just behind Labour; and both Lib Dems and the Greens have advanced, albeit from a low level. These changes all appear in the graph in [G], the additional feature being the dramatic rise of Labour in Scotland, overtaking SNP at the UK election last year, only subsequently to fall back now to where it was in 2021.
[G] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
Step ratios, comparing 2021 and 2025
We continue our comparison of 2021 and 2015, comparing the 2021 election with this year’s recent opinion polls. Dividing the latter by the former, gives the step ratio.
A lot has happened in the last four years. Governing parties have slumped: Conservatives with a step ratio of 0.55 (12% divided by 21.9%), SNP with a step ratio of 0.73 and Labour with a step ratio of 0.83 (reflecting a rise and then a fall in the past year). Other parties have enjoyed increased support. Lib Dem have had a modest increase with a step ratio of 1.45. The Greens have enjoyed a large step ratio of 5.38, albeit starting from a low base. Reform, just in the past year or so, have a 16% vote, having had zero in 2021.
There has been flow between Group A and Group B and also flows within each Group. So the step ratios are more modest, 1.28 for the increasing Group A and 0.90 for the declining group B – but note that Group B continues to be much larger than Group A. Other has a step ratio of 3.33 – from an almost-zero base.
Step ratios, 2021-2025
A Reform - from 0 to 16%, see above
A Conservative 0.55 (UK governing party)
B Labour 0.83 (UK governing party)
B Lib Dem 1.45
B Green 5.38
B SNP 0.73 (Scotland governing party)
…
Group A 1.28
Group B 0.90
Other 3.33
Local
The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election …
Reform now second favourites:
https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/reform-now-second-favourites-win-35316686
Reform can’t win; SNP don’t deserve to:
Starmer loss in Hamilton could set dominoes falling:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/31/starmer-loss-hamilton-by-election-dominoes-falling/
… what John Curtice says
“Professor Sir John Curtice gives his predictions for the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election.
The SNP looks set to win this week’s Holyrood by-election, according to polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice.
With less than 48 hours to go until the polls open for the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, it looks to be a “close” fight between the SNP and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Professor Curtice predicts it will be tight, and the winner might come away with less than a third of the overall votes.
Speaking on BBC Good Morning Scotland, he said: “Whoever wins, the SNP are the favourites but there are no polls to anticipate that, but if Hamilton follows evidence of the national polls, it will be a close contest.
“It ought to be close between SNP and Reform, and maybe Reform will do somewhat better than in the national polls.
"But we are looking at a winner with less than a third of the vote and winning by a small margin.”
Prof Curtice says eyes will be on this week’s by-election result to see if it can give an indication of how things will pan out at next year’s Holyrood election.
The SNP is currently leading the Holyrood polls at 33 per cent, while Scottish Labour has fallen back down to where it was polling in 2021.
This comes after Scottish Labour climbed to be neck-and-neck with the SNP in the Holyrood polls last summer.
Prof Curtice said: “The by-election will tell you where we are in Scotland, but it doesn’t set Scotland on a guaranteed path.
“But if the SNP wins Hamilton with a diminished share of the vote, and Labour falls back from where it was in 2021, it will confirm the evidence we have from opinion polls.
“It will also confirm that the mood has changed on Anas Sarwar moving into Bute House and that the SNP looks favourite to remain in office.
“If Labour wins, even though they have not had the easiest of by-election campaigns, they can claim a fair amount of credit, perhaps more than necessary.”
Yesterday Mr Farage visited Scotland where he said it was “not impossible” but “improbable” that his party would win Thursday’s by-election. He said he was confident of coming third in the race, and said it would be a nice surprise to come second.”
… a step ratio prediction
A by-election is being held in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. Looking at the available statistics, without any knowledge of the current local circumstances, what can one say about the ‘likely’ result? The approach used here is to calculate the national step ratios and assume they also apply at the local level, specifically to the Hamilton results in 2021. The method is speculative and had mixed success when applied in May to the Runcorn by-election.
In the Scottish parliament election in 2021, the SNP won Hamilton with almost an absolute majority, 46.2% - almost the same as the 47.7% they won nationally. Labour came second in Hamilton with 33.6% - much better than they did nationally gaining only 21.6%. Conservatives came third in Hamilton with 17.5%, about half the Labour vote – rather less than the 21.9% they gained nationally, where they pushed Labour into third place. The only other party in Hamilton in 2021 was the Liberal Democrat who only gained 2.8%, less than half what they got at the national level.
Neither Reform nor the Greens contested Hamilton in 2012, nor did any other party. In contrast in the current by-election there are ten candidates, the same four as in 2021 plus Reform UK, Scottish Green and also Scottish Socialist, Scottish Family, UKIP, and Independent.
The national step ratios for Conservatives, SNP and Labour are all less than one and so we predict a proportionate fall in the Hamilton 2021 percentages. In contrast the national step ratio for the Lib Dems is more than one and so an increase in the Hamilton 2021 percentage is predicted.
Looking at the two groups of parties, the Group A step ratio is 1.28 and so an increase is anticipated, albeit from a low level; whereas the Group B step ratio is 0.90 and so a decrease is anticipated, but still enjoying a preponderance over Group B. Some extra considerations are needed to calculate Other, Reform and Green.
These calculations put Group B well ahead of Group A in Hamilton; within Group B, SNP ahead of Labour; both ahead of the Group A total; and Reform ahead of Conservative within Group A.
The SR-based prediction is 1 SNP; 2 Labour; 3 Reform; 4 Conservative; 5 Green; and 6 Lib Dem.
.
. SP21 SRatio SR-based prediction
. % national %
Reform 0 - [12.8]
Conservative 17.5 0.55 9.6
Labour 33.6 0.83 27.9
Lib Dem 2.8 1.45 4.1
Green 0 5.38 [8.6]
SNP 46.2 0.73 33.7
Other 0 3.33 [3.35]
. 100 100
Group A 17.5 1.28 22.4
Group B 82.5 0.90 74.3
Other 0 3.33 [3.3]
. 100 100
Note: Reform, Green and Other are not directly derived from step ratios.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Hamilton,_Larkhall_and_Stonehouse_by-election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election
This approach is new and so the predictions are speculative … and are likely to be in error. There is a certain inconsistency in using the step ratios in this way and a voter flow model would be better although I don’t have access to flow data.
National step ratio and 50% tactical voting
There may be tactical voting, from Conservative to Reform in Group A. This would bring Reform up to 22.4 but still behind Labour. See second column of the table.
There may be 50% tactical voting within both groups, from Conservative to Reform in Group A; and in addition from Labour, Lib Dem and Green to SNP in Group B. The table below gives the results of 50% tactical voting. This enables Reform to come second. See third column of the table.
For Reform to come first there needs to be a flow from Group B parties.
All this would make the local Hamilton step ratios deviate from the national step ratios. Outside the step ratio model is the fact the voters in 2021 are not all the same as the voters in 2025.
. SR-based … C to … plus 50% tactical voting
. % Ref %
Reform [12.8] 22.4 17.6 second
Conservative 9.6 0 4.8
Labour 27.9 27.9 14.0 third
Lib Dem 4.1 2.2 2.2
Green [8.6] 4.3 4.3
SNP 33.7 33.7 54.2 first
Other [3.35] 3.35 3.35
. 100 100 100
Group A 22.4 22.4 22.4
Group B 74.3 74.3 74.3
Other [3.3] [3.3] [3.3]
. 100 100 100
2 The reports on the May 2025 elections
Prelude to the UK local elections, 2025
in:
Labour & Conservative slump, Reform rise in UK elections … my book
Runcorn: a Britannia by-election?
… Model: national step ratio plus group 50% tactical voting
in:
VE Day: today in the UK, tomorrow in Russia … Rus, Britannia, Third Reich
A report on the May 2025 local government elections is in preparation.
3 The book: Local elections and national opinion – a model (2024)
This is a draft online book which I produced after the local elections last year (2024) just before the general election.
The Front Page sets the scene with the expectation of a heavy Conservative defeat.
The Contents section lists the seven chapter titles and also the section titles within each chapter.
Chapter 2 provides a conceptual map introducing the step equation and the flow equations (3pages).
2 An analysis of changing percentages – a conceptual map.
Chapter 3 National elections: mass and motion in political space, 1945-2024.
This 25-page chapter looks at the course of UK general elections in the period 1945-2024. One sub-section looks at the rise of Nigel Farage and the various parties he has been associated with.
3 National elections: mass and motion in political space, 1945-2024.
Chapter 4 Local results in national elections.
This 11-page chapter continues the analysis of national elections but looks at how local results satisfy general equations. One sub-section looks at how deviations from the general equation depend on the Remain vote.
4 Local results in national elections.
Chapter 5 Local government elections.
This 25-page chapter looks at local government elections. Looking across different local areas is the swing uniform, proportional or linear?
Chapter 6 By-elections.
This 33-page chapter looks at by-elections: “… more than one recent poll has suggested that Conservative support is falling most in seats where the party was previously strongest …”. Again the concept of step ratio is applied.
Chapter 7 Modelling
This 11-page chapter looks back at each chapter and looks into the modelling aspects in greater detail.
The website for the book also gives the same above links to the chapters.
Local elections and national polls
THE END