News 2023

Paper on Religion and Growth Accepted at the Journal of Economic Literature

We use the elements of a macroeconomic production function—physical capital, human capital, labor, and technology—together with standard growth models to frame the role of religion in economic growth. Unifying a growing literature, we argue that religion can enhance or impinge upon economic growth through all four elements because it shapes individual preferences, societal norms, and institutions. Religion affects physical capital accumulation by influencing thrift and financial development. It affects human capital through both religious and secular education. It affects population and labor by influencing work effort, fertility, and the demographic transition. And it affects total factor productivity by constraining or unleashing technological change and through rituals, legal institutions, political economy, and conflict. Synthesizing a disjoint literature in this way opens many interesting directions for future research.

Religion and Growth (with S.O. Becker and J. Rubin). Journal of Economic Literature, forthcoming [tweet] 

The Education Crisis Is our Biggest Location Risk: Interview on wiwo.de 

De facto sind wir längst wieder auf Schock-Niveau. wiwo.de, 5.12.2023

Selected media coverage of PISA commentary: Radio interviews on Deutschlandfunk Kultur, HR2, MDR Aktuell, Handelsblatt Today Podcast, and Deutschlandfunk, among others. Press coverage by tagesschau.de, Handelsblatt, ZEIT Online, welt.de, BILD.de, Wiarda Blog, among many others. ifo press release. 

Global Universal Basic Skills: Paper Published in the Journal of Development Economics

How far is the world away from ensuring that every child obtains the basic skills needed to be competitive in a modern economy? And what would accomplishing this mean for world development? We provide new approaches for estimating the lack of basic skills that allow mapping achievement across countries of the world onto a common (PISA) scale. We then estimate the share of children not achieving basic skills for 159 countries that cover 98% of world population and 99% of world GDP. We find that at least two-thirds of the world’s youth do not reach basic skill levels, ranging from 24% in North America to 89% in South Asia and 94% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our economic analysis suggests that the present value of lost world economic output due to missing the goal of global universal basic skills amounts to over $700 trillion over the remaining century, or 12% of discounted GDP. 

Global Universal Basic Skills: Current Deficits and Implications for World Development (with S. Gust and E.A. Hanushek). Journal of Development Economics 166: 103205, 2024 [tweet1] [tweet2] [video] 

What Do Germans Think about Inequality of Opportunity in the Education System?

We asked the Germans what they think about educational inequality in Germany and various reform proposals. Clear majorities of Germans see a (very) serious problem in the inequality of opportunity between children with and without a migration background (62%) and between children from good and difficult social backgrounds (61%). This opinion has worsened since 2019. In addition, 53% fear that digitalization will lead to greater inequality in the German education system. As measures for more equal opportunities, Germans are in favor of an opportunity budget for schools with many students from disadvantaged backgrounds (69%) and the use of a social index for schools (65%). Salary supplements for teachers at schools with many students from disadvantaged backgrounds are also supported by a majority (55%). A majority (69%) is also in favor of limiting the share of students with foreign citizenship and insufficient language skills per class to a maximum of 30%. Clear majorities are in favor of mandatory remedial lessons and holiday courses for disadvantaged groups of students to catch up on learning losses due to Covid.

Was denken die Deutschen zu Chancenungleichheit im Bildungssystem? (with K. Werner, V. Freundl, F. Pfaehler, and K. Wedel). ifo Schnelldienst 76 (11): 33-39, 2023 [tweet]

Vol. 7 of the Handbook of the Economics of Education is out (edited with Hanushek and Machin)

Great overview chapters on cutting-edge topics in the economics of education by top scholars:
1. "Methods for measuring school effectiveness" by Joshua Angrist, Peter Hull, and Christopher Walters.
2. "Teacher evaluation and training" by Eric S. Taylor.
3. "US school finance: Resources and outcomes" by Danielle Victoria Handel and Eric A. Hanushek.
4. "College costs, financial aid, and student decisions" by Susan Dynarski, Lindsay Page, and Judith Scott-Clayton.
5. "Firm training" by Dan A. Black, Lars Skipper, and Jeffrey A. Smith.
6. "Multidimensional human capital and the wage structure" by David J. Deming.

Handbook of the Economics of Education, Vol. 7 (edited with E.A. Hanushek and S. Machin), Amsterdam: North Holland, 2023 [tweet]

Religion and Growth: New Working Paper

We use the elements of a macroeconomic production function—physical capital, human capital, labor, and technology—together with standard growth models to frame the role of religion in economic growth. Unifying a growing literature, we argue that religion can enhance or impinge upon economic growth through all four elements because it shapes individual preferences, societal norms, and institutions. Religion affects physical capital accumulation by influencing thrift and financial development. It affects human capital through both religious and secular education. It affects population and labor by influencing work effort, fertility, and the demographic transition. And it affects total factor productivity by constraining or unleashing technological change and through rituals, legal institutions, political economy, and conflict. Synthesizing a disjoint literature in this way opens many interesting directions for future research.

Religion and Growth (with S.O. Becker and J. Rubin). CESifo Working Paper 10688 / IZA Discussion Paper 16494 / CEPR Discussion Paper 18501, October 2023 [tweet] 

Can Patience Account for Subnational Differences in Student Achievement? New Working Paper

Decisions to invest in human capital depend on people’s time preferences. We show that differences in patience are closely related to substantial subnational differences in educational achievement, leading to new perspectives on longstanding within-country disparities. We use social-media data – Facebook interests – to construct novel regional measures of patience within Italy and the United States. Patience is strongly positively associated with student achievement in both countries, accounting for two-thirds of the achievement variation across Italian regions and one-third across U.S. states. Results also hold for six other countries with more limited regional achievement data.

Can Patience Account for Subnational Differences in Student Achievement? Regional Analysis with Facebook Interests (with E.A. Hanushek, L. Kinne, and P. Sancassani). NBER Working Paper 31690 / CESifo Working Paper 10660 / IZA Discussion Paper 16458, September 2023 [tweet]

For the First Time: Regional Results of the ifo Education Survey

Due to an extended sampling, the ifo Education Survey 2023 allows representative analyses of selected questions in seven German regions for the first time. Results reveal clear regional differences in the assessment of schools: In Bavaria, 41% of respondents give the schools in their state a grade of A or B (1 or 2), while in North Rhine-Westphalia only 20% do. Between 74% in Bavaria and 82% in the Center-East region consider teacher shortage to be a serious problem. Between 58% (Bavaria and North-West) and 66% (Center-West) see learning gaps caused by Covid as a serious problem. In North Rhine-Westphalia, 66% perceive insufficiently renovated school buildings as a serious problem, in Bavaria 47%. Education policy is important for the personal voting decisions in state elections for the vast majority (78%) of respondents, especially in the Center-East (84%) and North-East (83%). In most regions, an absolute majority (54% to 61%) is in favor of changing the constitution so that education policy decisions are generally made by the federal government instead of the states. Only in Bavaria (44% in favor, 42% against) and Baden-Württemberg (46% in favor, 36% against) is opinion more divided on this. In all regions, more than 80% are in favor of standardized exit exams throughout Germany for the various school-leaving qualifications.

Selected media coverage: BR24 television, Frankfurter Allgemeinen Sonntagszeitung, faz.net, Zeit Online, sueddeutsche.de, bild.de, welt.de, wiwo.de, wdr.de, br.de, and many others.

Wie unterscheidet sich das Meinungsbild zu Schulen zwischen den deutschen Regionen? Regionale Ergebnisse des ifo Bildungsbarometers 2023 (with K. Werner, V. Freundl, F. Pfaehler, and K. Wedel). ifo Schnelldienst 76 (10): 29-34, 2023 [tweet]

Earnings Information and Public Support for Tuition: Paper Published in the Journal of Public Economics

Higher education finance depends on the public’s preferences for charging tuition, which may be partly based on beliefs and awareness about the university earnings premium. To test whether public support for tuition depends on earnings information, we devise survey experiments in representative samples of the German electorate (N>15,000). The electorate is divided, with a plurality opposing tuition. Providing information on the university earnings premium raises support for tuition by 7 percentage points, turning the plurality in favor. The opposition-reducing effect persists two weeks after treatment. While there is some evidence of information-based updating of biased beliefs, the effect seems to mainly work through increased salience which triggers reduced consideration of financial constraints when forming preferences for tuition. Information on fiscal costs and unequal access does not affect public preferences. We subject the baseline result to various experimental tests of replicability, robustness, heterogeneity, and consequentiality. 

Earnings Information and Public Preferences for University Tuition: Evidence from Representative Experiments (with P. Lergetporer). Journal of Public Economics 226: 104968, 2023 [tweet]

ifo Education Survey 2023: What Germans Think about School Quality

The ifo Education Survey 2023 shows a significant deterioration in the assessment of schools: only 27% of Germans give their state's schools a grade of A or B (1 or 2), compared with 38% in 2014. 79% believe that school education has deteriorated as a result of the Covid pandemic. Most Germans see teacher shortage (77%) as a serious problem, followed by a lack of financial resources (68%) and the inertia of the system (66%). To counter teacher shortage, respondents support post-qualification of teachers in subjects with shortage (79%) and the use of career changers (64%), but reject larger classes (81%). The majority of respondents are in favor of standardized high-school exit exams throughout Germany (86%) and comparative tests in math and German (68%). They are against the abolition of school grades (73%) and in favor of repeating classes in the event of poor performance (78%). 78% favor requiring all schools to publish uniform annual reports. Germans are in favor of the federal government equipping all students in secondary schools with computers (65%) and requiring teachers to undergo further training on digitization (81%). Slight majorities oppose instruction on the use of AI and chatbots (54%) and support forms of examination that prevent their use (55%). 74% are in favor of increased education spending - significantly more than for other public spending categories.

Selected media coverage: tagesschau.de, ZDF nano, ZDF heute, Pro7 Newstime, Sat.1 Nachrichten, BR24 Rundschau, NDR Info, Phoenix vor Ort, Deutschlandfunk, SWR aktuell, BR Nachrichten, SZ Podcast, SZ, wiwo.de, zeit.de, Handelsblatt, welt.de, FAZ, bild.de, Table.Bildung, u.v.a.

Was die Deutschen über die Qualität der Schulen denken – Ergebnisse des zehnten ifo Bildungsbarometers 2023 (with K. Werner, V. Freundl, F. Pfaehler, and K. Wedel). ifo Schnelldienst 76 (9): 37-50, 2023 [tweet]

Portrait on Bildung.Table: Ludger Woessmann – Rigorous Empiricist

A Portrait in "Heads" section of the Professional Briefing Bildung.Table on 30 August 2023.

Elected Member of Academia Europaea - The Academy of Europe

I am honored and grateful to have been elected as a member of Academia Europaea - The Academy of Europe. Its object is the advancement and propagation of excellence in scientific scholarship anywhere in the world for the public benefit and for the advancement of the education of the public of all ages.

Catanzaro Keynote on "Patience and Student Achievement"

The slides of my keynote at the 13th International Workshop on Applied Economics of Education (IWAEE) in Catanzaro, Italy on "Patience and Student Achievement across and within Countries" are available here. 

Interview on Spiegel.de on the Importance of and Remedies against Declining School Achievement

Alles, was wehtun würde, da geht man nicht ran. Spiegel.de, 15.5.2023

Paper on Mentoring Accepted at the Journal of Political Economy

We study a mentoring program that aims to improve the labor-market prospects of school-attending adolescents from disadvantaged families by offering them a university-student mentor. Our RCT investigates program effectiveness on three outcome dimensions that are highly predictive of later labor-market success: math grades, patience/social skills, and labor-market orientation. For low-SES adolescents, the mentoring increases a combined index of the outcomes by over half a standard deviation after one year, with significant increases in each dimension. Part of the treatment effect is mediated by establishing mentors as attachment figures who provide guidance for the future. Effects on grades and labor-market orientation, but not on patience/social skills, persist three years after program start. By that time, the mentoring also improves early realizations of school-to-work transitions for low-SES adolescents. The mentoring is not effective for higher-SES adolescents. The results show that substituting lacking family support by other adults can help disadvantaged children at adolescent age. 

Can Mentoring Alleviate Family Disadvantage in Adolescence? A Field Experiment to Improve Labor-Market Prospects (with S. Resnjanskij, J. Ruhose, S. Wiederhold, and K. Wedel). Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming [tweet1] [video] [tweet2] [tweet3]

Declining Performance Levels, High Inequality of Opportunity: Our Contribution in Wirtschaftsdienst

Sinkendes Leistungsniveau, hohe Chancenungleichheit – Stand und Handlungsoptionen für die deutsche Schulbildung (with V. Freundl, F. Pfaehler, and F. Schoner). Wirtschaftsdienst 103 (4): 233-237, 2023

Education and Professional Sovereignty: New Report of the Expert Council of Education 

As an important developmental goal for every person, professional sovereignty refers to the ability to self-determine career choice, practice, and adaptation with an understanding of the societal and economic context. Professional orientation is a lifelong task that aims to match a person's interests and skills with the needs of the labor market and the requirements of occupational tasks. In its new report, the Expert Council on Education shows which personal and structural requirements are necessary for the lifelong process of successful career orientation and sets out, across educational phases, how professional sovereignty can be developed and promoted.

Bildung und berufliche Souveränität. Gutachten des Aktionsrats Bildung. Münster: Waxmann, 2023

Good Education is not Just a Question of Money: Interview on the German Education Summit at wiwo.de 

Es ist verheerend, dass sich Deutschland dieses Tempo leistet. wiwo.de, 14.3.2023

Selected coverage in the wake of the German education summit: Bild am Sonntag; spiegel.de; welt.de. 

The Legacy of Covid-19 in Education: Paper Accepted for Publication in Economic Policy

If school closures and social-distancing experiences during the Covid-19 pandemic impeded children’s skill development, they may leave a lasting legacy in human capital. Our parental survey during the second German school lockdown provides new measures of socio-emotional development and panel evidence on how students’ time use and educational inputs adapted over time. Children’s learning time decreased severely during the first school closures, particularly for low-achieving students, and increased only slightly one year later. In a value-added model, learning time increases with daily online class instruction, but not with other school activities. Parental assessments of children’s socio-emotional development are mixed. Discussing our findings in light of the emerging literature on substantial achievement losses, we conclude that unless remediated, the school closures will persistently increase inequality and reduce skill development, lifetime income, and economic growth. 

The Legacy of Covid-19 in Education (with K. Werner). Economic Policy, forthcoming [tweet]

Podcast "The Week that Was in Europe" on Skills, Schools, and Economic Growth 

Europe needs to boost its growth potential - but how? A discussion with Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher about the role of human skills and schools for economic growth released on 10 February 2023: 

Handbook of the Economics of Education, Volume 6, is out (edited with Hanushek and Machin)

Praise by David Figlio (Provost, University of Rochester): "This latest installment of this highly influential handbook series continues the successes of the first five volumes. The chapters, written by some of the world’s leading experts on the subjects at hand, present both theoretical and empirical literatures from a global perspective. Covering topics from preschool through higher education - from early child development to school choice to teacher quality measures to college access to returns to higher education - this volume is a “must read” for scholars and practitioners alike who seek to be up to date on some of the most important education issues of our day."

Contains seven chapters: 1. "Investing in early childhood development in preschool and at home" (Greg Duncan, Ariel Kalil, Magne Mogstad, Mari Rege). 2. "Estimation and interpretation of teacher value added in research applications" (Andrew Bacher-Hicks, Cory Koedel). 3. "School choice" (Atila Abdulkadiroğlu, Tommy Andersson). 4. "Returns to different postsecondary investments: Institution type, academic programs, and credentials" (Michael Lovenheim, Jonathan Smith). 5. "Addressing nonfinancial barriers to college access and success: Evidence and policy implications" (Susan Dynarski, Aizat Nurshatayeva, Lindsay C. Page, Judith Scott-Clayton). 6. "Educational inequality" (Jo Blanden, Matthias Doepke, Jan Stuhler). 7. "Conditional cash transfers for education" (Sandra Garcia, Juan E. Saavedra). 

Handbook of the Economics of Education, Vol. 6 (edited with E.A. Hanushek and S. Machin), Amsterdam: North Holland, 2023 [tweet]