News 2020
December 2020
Less Lifetime Income due to School Closures
Feature on 3Sat nano on December 10, 2020 with several interview parts:
Contribution on Equal Opportunities in Education
Gleiche Chancen? Je früher, desto besser! lautstark 07/2020: 26-28, 2020
November 2020
Contribution on VoxEU: COVID-19 School Closures Hit Low-achieving Students Particularly Hard
COVID-19 School Closures Hit Low-achieving Students Particularly Hard (with E. Grewenig, P. Lergetporer, K. Werner, and L. Zierow). VoxEU.org, 15.11.2020
(Spanish translation reprinted as "Los cierres de las escuelas motivados por la covid-19 perjudican más a los alumnos con bajo rendimiento " in: M.T. Valdés, M.Á. Sancho Gargallo, M. de Esteban Villar, Indicadores comentados sobre el estado del sistema educativo español 2021, Madrid: Fundación Europea Sociedad y Educación, 186-192, 2021)
IZA Video Lecture: "Education during and after Corona: On the Way to a New Normality?"
My opening lecture of the IZA Virtual Lecture Series "The Way to the New Normality: Economic Policy Lessons from the Corona Crisis" (in German):
(Also available: short report and short video)
October 2020
New Working Paper: COVID-19 School Closures Hit Low-Achieving Students Particularly Hard
We argue that low-achieving students may be particularly affected by the lack of educator support during school closures. We collect detailed time-use information on students before and during the COVID-19-related school closures in a survey of 1,099 parents in Germany. We find that while students on average reduced their daily learning time of 7.4 hours by about half, the reduction was significantly larger for low-achievers (4.1 hours) than for high-achievers (3.7 hours). Low-achievers disproportionately replaced learning time with detrimental activities such as TV or computer games rather than with activities more conducive to child development. The learning gap was not compensated by parents or schools who provided less support for low-achieving students. The reduction in learning time was not larger for children from lower-educated parents, but it was larger for boys than for girls. For policy, our findings suggest binding distance-teaching concepts particularly targeted at low-achievers.
COVID-19 and Educational Inequality: How School Closures Affect Low- and High-Achieving Students (with E. Grewenig, P. Lergetporer, K. Werner, and L. Zierow). CESifo Working Paper 8648 / IZA Discussion Paper 13820, October 2020
COVID-19 School Closures Hit Low-achieving Students Particularly Hard (with E. Grewenig, P. Lergetporer, K. Werner, and L. Zierow). VoxEU.org, 15.11.2020
Corona-Schulschließungen treffen leistungsschwächere Schüler*innen besonders hart (with E. Grewenig, P. Lergetporer, K. Werner, and L. Zierow). Ökonomenstimme, 21.12.2020
Positions of Political Parties Affect the Public’s Policy Preferences: New Paper in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
The standard assumption of exogenous policy preferences implies that parties set their positions according to their voters’ preferences. Focusing on family policies, in a paper that has just been published in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization we investigate the reverse effect: Are the electorates’ policy preferences responsive to party positions? In a representative German survey, we inform randomized treatment groups about the positions of political parties on two disputed family policies, child care subsidy and universal student aid. In both experiments, the information treatment aligns policy preferences of specific partisan groups with their preferred party's position, implying that policy preferences are endogenous. The treatment also affects non-partisan swing voters, suggesting that party positioning can affect the public's preferences beyond their partisans.
Do Party Positions Affect the Public’s Policy Preferences? Experimental Evidence on Support for Family Policies (with E. Grewenig, P. Lergetporer, and K. Werner). Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 179: 523-543, 2020
September 2020
Two-Volume Collection on New Directions in the Economics of Higher Education
The two-volume collection on "New Directions in the Economics of Higher Education" that Eric Bettinger and I have edited for the "International Library of Critical Writings in Economics" Series at Edward Elgar has just come out. The included 63 seminal papers provide an overview of the vibrant and growing field of the economics of higher education. Our introductory chapter puts the collected papers into the perspective of developments in the wider literature on the economics of higher education over the past decade, covering (I) the returns to education, including the role of higher education in the growing inequality in many countries and exploration into the heterogeneity in returns; (II) college attendance and the ever-growing importance of completion; (III) higher education finance including the impacts of changing costs and subsidies both to institutions and students; (IV) educational production and its relationship to the science of learning; and (V) the market for education including positive models focused on the objective function of colleges and their changing nature.
New Directions in the Economics of Higher Education (edited with E. Bettinger). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2020 [tweet]
Introduction (with E. Bettinger). In: L. Woessmann, E. Bettinger (eds.), New Directions in the Economics of Higher Education, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, xii-xxxvii, 2020
New OECD Report: The Economic Impacts of Learning Losses
While the worldwide school closures in early 2020 led to losses in learning, public attention so far has rightfully focused on the immediate health and safety concerns surrounding schools and alternate ways to proceed with their re-opening. Longer-run issues, however, have not received the same attention. In a new report published by the OECD and first presented at the G20 Education Ministers virtual meeting, Eric Hanushek and I argue that the learning losses will have lasting economic impacts both on the affected students and on each nation unless they are effectively remediated. As the precise learning losses are not yet known, we provide a range of plausible estimates of the long-run economic impacts of existing and on-going learning losses. Existing research suggests that the students affected by the closures might expect some 3 percent lower career earnings. For nations, the lower long-term growth related to such losses might yield an average of 1.5 percent lower GDP for the remainder of the century. These economic losses will be more deeply felt by disadvantaged students, and they would grow if schools are unable to re-start quickly. We discuss effective matching of teachers to instructional tasks and pivoting to more individualized instruction as two ways to ameliorate the losses that capitalize on the pandemic-induced alterations in the traditional school. Coverage of the report, e.g., in nytime.com, wsj.com, usnews.com, the74million.org, qz.com, cafepedagogique.net, and elpais.com.
The Economic Impacts of Learning Losses (with E.A. Hanushek). Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2020 [video]
Students Have Already Been Saddled with Economic Losses from School Closures (with E.A. Hanushek). The Hill, 10.9.2020
Costs of Past and Future Learning Losses (with E.A. Hanushek). Education Next Blog, 10.9.2020
Permanent Economic Damage from Learning Losses (with E.A. Hanushek). National Review, 18.9.2020
OECD Webinar on the report "The Economic Impacts of Learning Losses" with Eric Hanushek (Stanford) and Andreas Schleicher (OECD Director for Education and Skills), 10 September 2020:
Will Schools and Universities Ever Return to Normal?
Foreign Policy asked nine experts on the future of education after the pandemic. Here is my contribution:
Return to In-person Schooling as Quickly as Possible. foreignpolicy.com, 5.9.2020
ifo Education Survey 2020: Germans Support More Unity and Comparability in the Education System
The fact that the federal states are responsible for education policy in Germany regularly leads to debates about the lack of unity and comparability in education. The ifo Education Survey 2020, our annual representative opinion poll, surveyed the opinions of more than 10,000 adults on the subject of educational federalism. The majority of Germans (60%) favor that the most important education policy decisions are made by the federal government and not by the states. The respondents also support higher commitment of the federal government in the financing of education. In the school system, the majority sees responsibility for framework regulations such as curricula as lying with the federal government, while the schools themselves should be responsible for selecting teachers and deciding how to use resources. 70% of Germans support the establishment of a National Education Council, 83% support a State Treaty on education with binding requirements. An overwhelming majority of 88% consider the comparability of student performance between the states important. Accordingly, clear majorities support reform proposals such as regular testing of student performance for state comparisons (76%), national comparative tests that are relevant for students' grades (69%), nationally uniform curricula for upper secondary school (88%), and a common core school-leaving examination (84%). The majority of respondents from states with high student performance are satisfied with their state's educational policy, while the majority of respondents from states with low performance are dissatisfied. These differences increase when respondents are informed about actual student performance in their state. The media again widely covered the results of the ifo Education Survey, for example Spiegel online, SZ, FAZ, Die Welt, tagesschau.de, ZDFheute, Zeit online, wiwo.de, Deutschlandfunk, Wiarda Blog, and many others. The press conference is available here.
Deutsche sind für mehr Einheitlichkeit und Vergleichbarkeit im Bildungssystem – Ergebnisse des ifo Bildungsbarometers 2020 (with P. Lergetporer, V. Freundl, E. Grewenig, and K. Werner). ifo Schnelldienst 73 (9): 40-48, 2020
August 2020
New Survey: How Did School Children Spend their Time during the School Closures?
The time that children spent on school-related activities per day was halved during the Corona period, from 7.4 to 3.6 hours. This is a result of our survey of more than 1000 parents conducted in June. 38% of the students studied for school for no more than two hours per day, 74% for no more than four hours. At the same time, the time spent with TV, computer games, and mobile phones increased from 4.0 to 5.2 hours per day. For children whose parents had a higher education, the decline in school activities was similar to that of other children, although the increase in passive activities was slightly smaller. Low-performing students particularly replaced learning with passive activities. The time that parents spent with their child on learning increased from half an hour to just over an hour per day during school closures. 57% of students had group online lessons less than once a week, only 6% daily. Students had individual contact with their teachers even less often. 96% received weekly task sheets for processing, 64% received feedback on them at least once a week. Asking a representative sample of the German population (not just parents), 79% are in favor of compulsory online lessons when schools are closed, 78% favor directives for teachers to contact students on a daily basis, and 83% favor more intensive care for children from disadvantaged backgrounds.
Bildung in der Coronakrise: Wie haben die Schulkinder die Zeit der Schulschließungen verbracht, und welche Bildungsmaßnahmen befürworten die Deutschen? (with V. Freundl, E. Grewenig, P. Lergetporer, K. Werner, and L. Zierow). ifo Schnelldienst 73 (9): 25-39, 2020
Selected interviews: ARD Morgenmagazin, Tagesschau, BR Rundschau, Sat.1 Bayern, Wiarda Blog, Deutschlandfunk, SWR, rbb, WDR, NDR, BR, RB.
Selected media coverage: Die Zeit, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Die Welt, Tagesspiegel, Berliner Zeitung, Augsburger Allgemeine, Spiegel Online, bild.de, tagesschau.de, zeit.de, sz.de, wiwo.de, focus.de, wdr.de, n-tv.de, taz.de.
The press conference on the study:
Coverage of the study on German TV, Tagesschau (5 August 2020):
Statement of the National Academy of Sciences: For a Crisis-Resistant Education System
The coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain the infection have led to many day-care centers and schools being unable to adequately fulfill their educational mandate. In its ad-hoc statement "Coronavirus Pandemic: For a Crisis-Resistant Education System", the National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina points out measures suitable for making the education system more resistant and flexible under crisis conditions. It identifies seven fields of action: maintaining access to educational institutions; developing concepts for blending face-to-face and distance learning; providing a suitable, secure, and data protection-compliant digital infrastructure; supporting educational specialists and teachers in the professional use of digital media; strengthening cooperation and communication with parents and families; supporting children and young people with learning and performance deficits; and strengthening the knowledge and information base.
Coronavirus-Pandemie: Für ein krisenresistentes Bildungssystem. Ad-hoc-Stellungnahme der Nationalen Akademie der Wissenschaften Leopoldina. Halle: Leopoldina, 2020
Education in the Corona Crisis: Effects and Solutions
The school closures that started in mid-March in the course of the Corona pandemic have been a heavy burden on the cognitive and social-emotional development of many children and adolescents. What does this mean for equal opportunities and for long-term chances on the labor market? How can the negative consequences be mitigated? In mid-May, I published an article on the economic costs of lost learning due to the Corona-induced school closures:
Folgekosten ausbleibenden Lernens: Was wir über die Corona-bedingten Schulschließungen aus der Forschung lernen können. ifo Schnelldienst 73 (6): 38-44, 2020
On May 3, we initiated an appeal under the title "Make education possible! Teaching and early-childhood learning despite partially closed schools and daycare centers" that was signed by more than 90 German economists working on educational issues:
Bildung ermöglichen! Unterricht und frühkindliches Lernen trotz teilgeschlossener Schulen und Kitas (with A.M. Danzer, N. Danzer, C. Felfe de Ormeno, C.K. Spieß, and S. Wiederhold). Bildungsökonomischer Aufruf, 3.5.2020
"ARD Extra: The Corona State" on 18 June 2020 - my TV interview on the costs of lost learning (starts at minute 13):
Interview (in English) on Deutsche Welle DW News TV on 7 August 2020: COVID-19 Special on the effects of the coronvirus crisis on school children and their economic consequences (starts at minute 5):
Selected Media Coverage on Corona and Education, March-September 2021:
Since the school closures in mid-March, my contributions have also been quoted in numerous TV, radio, newspaper, and online articles. Here is a selection: Süddeutsche Zeitung (13 March 2020), n-tv TV (13 March 2020), Magazin Schule (13 March 2020), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (14 March 2020), Zeit online (21 March 2020), BR "Quer" TV (26 March 2020), Spiegel online (1 April 2020), Spiegel online (2 April 2020), Focus (11 April 2020), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (17 April 2020), BR "Rundschau" TV (22 April 2020), BR online (22 April 2020), Focus (25 April 2020), Welt am Sonntag (3 May 2020), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (4 May 2020), Spiegel online (5 May 2020), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (5 May 2020), Die Welt (5 May 2020), Handelsblatt (6 May 2020), Berliner Zeitung (6 May 2020), Zeit online (6 May 2020), ZDFzoom TV (6 May 2020), Die Welt (7 May 2020), Spiegel online (18 May 2020), bild.de (18 May 2020), Frankfurter Rundschau (18 May 2020), Die Presse (18 May 2020), afp (18 May 2020), Dow Jones (18 May 2020), Wiarda Blog (18 May 2020), Stern (19 May 2020), Spiegel (22 May 2020), Die Welt (23 May 2020), Focus (24 May 2020), Die Welt (25 May 2020), Business Insider (27 May 2020), ZDFheute online (27 May 2020), Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (31 May 2020), Die Welt (3 June 2020), Tagesschau-Zukunftspodcast (4 June 2020), Handelsblatt (8 June 2020), Handelsblatt (9 June 2020), Die Welt (11 June 2020), Focus.de (15 June 2020), Zeit online (18 June 2020), ARD Extra TV (18 June 2020), Handelsblatt (19 June 2020), Sat.1 Abendnachrichten, WeltN24 TV (21 June 2020), Die Welt (22 June 2020), Deutschlandfunk "Campus & Karriere" Radio (22 June 2020), bild.de (23 June 2020), WDR 5 "Politikum" Radio (29 June 2020), Die Welt (14 July 2020), BR "Abendschau" TV (21 July 2020), sueddeutsche.de (2 August 2020), Hamburger Abendblatt (3 August 2020), ARD Morgenmagazin TV (5 August 2020), Tagesschau TV (5 August 2020), BR Rundschau TV (5 August 2020), Sat.1 Bayern TV (5 August 2020), Wiarda Blog (5 August 2020), Deutschlandfunk Radio (5 August 2020), Spiegel Online (5 August 2020), bild.de (5 August 2020), tagesschau.de (5 August 2020), zeit.de (5 August 2020), sz.de (5 August 2020), wiwo.de (5 August 2020), SWR Radio (5 August 2020), rbb Radio (5 August 2020), WDR Radio (5 August 2020), NDR Radio (5 August 2020), BR Radio (5 August 2020), RB Radio (5 August 2020), focus.de (5 August 2020), wdr.de (5 August 2020), n-tv.de (5 August 2020), taz.de (5 August 2020), Die Zeit (6 August 2020), Süddeutsche Zeitung (6 August 2020), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (6 August 2020), Die Welt (6 August 2020), Tagesspiegel (6 August 2020), Berliner Zeitung (6 August 2020), Augsburger Allgemeine (6 August 2020), Deutsche Welle DW News TV (7 August 2020), Wirtschaftswoche (7 August 2020), Spiegel online (9 August 2020), Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (9 August 2020), Die Welt (11 August 2020), NZZ Online (11 August 2020), Spiegel online (11 August 2020), die tageszeitung (12 August 2020), Das Investment (12 August 2020), Die Zeit (13 August 2020), Die Welt (13 August 2020), Wirtschaftswoche (14 August 2020), Focus (14 August 2020), Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (16 August 2020), Süddeutsche Zeitung (17 August 2020), Tagesspiegel (17 August 2020), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (18 August 2020), Focus (22 August 2020), Rheinische Post (23 August 2020), Thüringer Allgemeine (4 September 2020), focus.de (6 September 2020), Der Standard Podcast (7 September 2020), Berliner Zeitung (8 September 2020), Spiegel-Bildungsnewsletter (8 September 2020), El Pais (8 September 2020), nytime.com (10 September 2020), wsj.com (10 September 2020), qz.com (10 September 2020), cafepedagogique.net (11 September 2020), the74million.org (13 September 2020), usnews.com (14 September 2020), Die Zeit (17 September 2020), Phoenix vor Ort: Bundestag live TV (18 September 2020), Die Welt (20 September 2020), ntv.de (21 September 2020), Phoenix plus TV (21 September 2020), Magisterio (22 September 2020), LA School Report (28 September 2020).
My discussion in the Coronomics video podcast by Rudi Bachmann and Christian Bayer, 27 April 2020:
A selection of further early statements, comments, and interviews on education in the Corona crisis:
Wirtschaftspolitische Aspekte der Corona-Krise. Brief und Thesenpapier des Wissenschaftlichen Beirats beim Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie. Berlin: BMWi, 2020
Welche sozialen Kosten haben die Schulschließungen? LMU-Website, Kinder und Jugendliche im Ausnahmezustand, 1.5.2020
Die sozial-emotionale Entwicklung der Kinder wird jetzt extrem gestört. faz.net, 16.4.2020
Schulschließungen: Kompletten Lernstopp verhindern. Wirtschaftsdienst 100 (4): 228, 2020
Natürlich geht beim Fernunterricht etwas verloren. sueddeutsche.de, 19.3.2020
July 2020
New Working Paper: Patience and Risk-Taking Fundamental to International Student Achievement
Patience and risk-taking – two cultural traits that steer intertemporal decision-making – are fundamental to human capital investment decisions. To understand how they contribute to international differences in student achievement, our new paper combines PISA tests with the Global Preference Survey. We find that opposing effects of patience (positive) and risk-taking (negative) together account for two-thirds of the cross-country variation in student achievement. In an identification strategy addressing unobserved residence-country features, we find similar results when assigning migrant students their country-of-origin cultural traits in models with residence-country fixed effects. Associations of culture with family and school inputs suggest that both may act as channels. Overall, a culture of patience may foster educational investments, whereas a culture of risk aversion may discourage students from getting into trouble, thus spurring effort in studying.
Culture and Student Achievement: The Intertwined Roles of Patience and Risk-Taking (with E.A. Hanushek, L. Kinne, and P. Lergetporer). NBER Working Paper 27484 / CESifo Working Paper 8407 / IZA Discussion Paper 13453, July 2020
Patience, Risk-taking, and International Differences in Student Achievement (with E.A. Hanushek, L. Kinne, and P. Lergetporer). Vox, 2.8.2020
Der Einfluss von Geduld und Risikobereitschaft auf internationale Unterschiede in schulischen Leistungen (with E.A. Hanushek, L. Kinne, and P. Lergetporer). Ökonomenstimme, 7.9.2020
Geduld hilft beim Lernen (with L. Kinne and P. Lergetporer). Süddeutsche Zeitung, 16.1.2021, p. 22
Paper on Educational Inequality and Public Policy Preferences Published in the Journal of Public Economics
In a paper just published in the Journal of Public Economics, we study how information about educational inequality affects public concerns and policy preferences. We devise survey experiments in representative samples of the German population. Providing information about the extent of educational inequality strongly increases the share of the population who view educational inequality as a serious problem by 12.4 percentage points (from 55.4 to 67.8 percent). The information provision also affects support for equity-oriented education policies (which have high baseline support), although effects are quantitatively small on average. However, instrumental-variable estimates suggest substantial effects of concerns on policy preferences among the compliers whose concerns are shifted by the information treatment. There are substantial effects on support for compulsory preschool, which increases further if respondents are informed about policy effectiveness.
Educational Inequality and Public Policy Preferences: Evidence from Representative Survey Experiments (with P. Lergetporer and K. Werner). Journal of Public Economics 188: 104226, 2020
Video "The Economic Gains from Global Literacy” at the World Literacy Summit
The video of my short keynote lecture at the World Literacy Summit 2020 - which, alas, had to be moved online - is now freely accessible:
June 2020
ifo Award for PIAAC Project
Our contribution to the project "Acquisition and Use of Competence in Adulthood - Network for the Analysis, Further Development and Dissemination of PIAAC" has been awarded the ifo Award for Third-Party Funded Researchat the ifo Annual Meeting 2020. A short video about the project:
Radio Feature on Historical Differences between East and West Germany
Radio feature in the program "Aus Kultur- und Sozialwissenschaften" on Deutschlandfunk on 18 June 2020 about our research on the historical differences between East and West Germany:
Religion in Economic History: New Survey Article
Historically, religion has played an important role in Western societies, affecting or even defining individual beliefs, cultural norms, social organizations, and political power. Over the past two decades, the study of “religion in economic history” has emerged as a new field. How did religion and religious beliefs in God and the afterlife affect economic history? And how did historical socioeconomic circumstances shape religious beliefs and activities? Our extensive survey paper prepared for the Handbook of Historical Economics highlights three general insights that emerge from this rapidly growing literature. First, the monotheistic character of the three main Abrahamic religions – Judaism, Christianity, and Islam – facilitated a close historical interconnection of religion with political power and conflict. Second, human capital often played a leading role in the interconnection between religion and economic history. Third, many socioeconomic factors matter in the historical development of religions.
Religion in Economic History: A Survey (with S.O. Becker and J. Rubin). CESifo Working Paper 8365 / IZA Discussion Paper 13371 / CEPR Discussion Paper 14894, June 2020
Recent Insights on the Role of Religion in Economic History (with S.O. Becker and J. Rubin). Vox, 12.7.2020
Die Rolle von Religion in der Wirtschaftsgeschichte (with S.O. Becker and J. Rubin). Ökonomenstimme, 14.7.2020
Wie Religion die Wirtschaftsgeschichte prägte (with S.O. Becker and J. Rubin). Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 1.3.2021, p. 16
May 2020
The Economic Costs of Lost Learning due to the Corona-induced School Closures
How will the months-long school closures for all pupils due to the coronavirus pandemic affect the future development of the afflicted children and adolescents? In a contribution in the ifo Schnelldienst, I emphasize that there is hardly any more robust finding in empirical economic research than the positive impact of school attendance and skill acquisition on economic prosperity. If about a third of a school year of learning is lost, this is associated with an income loss of about 3-4 percent on average over the entire working life. In addition, studies of strike-induced school closures, pre-planned short school years, and long school holidays show that a lack of schooling permanently impairs skill development and future labor-market success. Therefore, much is at stake with the current challenges of education policy. It must do everything to ensure that all children and adolescents – with or without physical school attendance – resume learning immediately.
Folgekosten ausbleibenden Lernens: Was wir über die Corona-bedingten Schulschließungen aus der Forschung lernen können. ifo Schnelldienst 73 (6): 38-44, 2020
Selected media coverage: ARD Extra Fernsehen, Handelsblatt, Spiegel online, bild.de, Frankfurter Rundschau, Die Presse, afp, Dow Jones, Wiarda Blog, Stern, Spiegel, Die Welt, Focus, ZDFheute online, Deutschlandfunk "Campus & Karriere", BR Fernsehen "Abendschau".
More than 90 Economists Sign Educational Call on the Corona Pandemic
Under the title "Make education possible! Teaching and early-childhood learning despite partially closed schools and daycare centers", in a group of six initiators we launched an appeal on May 3, 2020 that within 24 hours was signed by more than 90 German economists working on educational issues. We call for urgent attention to the manifold and serious effects of the closure of schools and daycare centers and for comprehensive measures to provide early childhood and school education immediately in an appropriate format for all age groups. Against the background that the operation of daycare centers and schools will remain restricted in the coming weeks, in this six-page paper we set out what concrete measures could be taken - from improving distance learning to the partial opening of schools and daycare centers for all children and the adaptation of next year's curricula.
Bildung ermöglichen! Unterricht und frühkindliches Lernen trotz teilgeschlossener Schulen und Kitas (with A.M. Danzer, N. Danzer, C. Felfe de Ormeno, C.K. Spieß, and S. Wiederhold). Bildungsökonomischer Aufruf, 3.5.2020
Selected media coverage: Spiegel online, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Die Welt, Handelsblatt, Berliner Zeitung, dpa, Deutschlandfunk, SWR aktuell, Zeit online, Die Welt.
Paper on the "Effects" of Communism in Germany Published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives
The article described below (March 2020) on what German division and reunification teaches about the enduring "effects" of communism has now been published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives:
The Separation and Reunification of Germany: Rethinking a Natural Experiment Interpretation of the Enduring Effects of Communism (with S.O. Becker and L. Mergele). Journal of Economic Perspectives 34 (2): 143-171, 2020 [tweet]
Es liegt nicht alles am Sozialismus: Der Graben zwischen Ost und West ist älter als die DDR (with S.O. Becker and L. Mergele). Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 30.3.2020, p. 16
German Division and Reunification and the ‘Effects’ of Communism (with S.O. Becker and L. Mergele). Vox, 5.4.2020
April 2020
Education for Democratic Competence: New Report of the Expert Council on Education
Is democracy in Germany in danger? And what can education contribute to preserve it? In its new report, the Expert Council on Education addresses the question of how democracy education in Germany can be improved. An introductory chapter examines the causes and effects of the worldwide increase in anti-democratic tendencies from an interdisciplinary perspective. Subsequently, the status quo is depicted for all phases of education: How important is democracy education in educational plans and in the training of educational staff? What about the democratic competencies of the participants in the educational system? From this stocktaking, the Expert Council on Education derives concrete recommendations for political decision-makers.
Bildung zu demokratischer Kompetenz. Gutachten des Aktionsrats Bildung. Münster: Waxmann, 2020
March 2020
JEP Paper: German East-West Differences Existed before GDR
German separation in 1949 into a communist East and a capitalist West and their reunification in 1990 are commonly described as a natural experiment to study the enduring effects of communism. In a paper forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, we show in three steps that the populations in East and West Germany were far from being randomly selected treatment and control groups. First, the later border is already visible in many socio-economic characteristics in pre-World War II data. Second, World War II and the subsequent occupying forces affected East and West differently. Third, a selective fifth of the population fled from East to West Germany before the building of the Wall in 1961. In light of our findings, we propose a more cautious interpretation of the extensive literature on the enduring effects of communist systems on economic outcomes, political preferences, cultural traits, and gender roles.
The Separation and Reunification of Germany: Rethinking a Natural Experiment Interpretation of the Enduring Effects of Communism (with S.O. Becker and L. Mergele). Journal of Economic Perspectives 34 (2): 143-171, 2020 [tweet]
Es liegt nicht alles am Sozialismus: Der Graben zwischen Ost und West ist älter als die DDR (with S.O. Becker and L. Mergele). Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 30.3.2020, p. 16
German division and reunification and the ‘effects’ of communism (with S.O. Becker and L. Mergele). Vox, 5.4.2020
Die deutsche Teilung und Wiedervereinigung und die „Auswirkungen“ des Kommunismus (with S.O. Becker and L. Mergele). ifo Schnelldienst 73 (5): 48-51, 2020
Paper on Belief Elicitation Forthcoming in Journal of Econometrics
Does incentivization improve belief elicitation in large-scale surveys? A large literature studies subjective beliefs about economic facts using unincentivized survey questions. In a paper just accepted for publication in the Journal of Econometrics, we devise randomized experiments in a representative online survey to investigate whether incentivizing belief accuracy affects stated beliefs about average earnings by professional degree and average public school spending. Incentive provision does not impact earnings beliefs, but improves school-spending beliefs. Response spikes suggest that the latter effect likely reflects increased online-search activity. Consistently, an experiment that just encourages search-engine usage produces very similar results. Overall, results suggest a trade-off between increased respondent effort and the risk of inducing online-search activity when incentivizing beliefs in online surveys.
Incentives, Search Engines, and the Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs: Evidence from Representative Online Survey Experiments (with E. Grewenig, P. Lergetporer, and K. Werner). Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming
Paper on Preferences for Education Spending Published in the European Journal of Political Economy
In a paper just accepted for publication in the European Journal of Political Economy, we show that information about the actual level of public education spending substantially decreases approval for future increases in education spending in Switzerland. This result is in line with our prior evidence from Germany and the United States which suggests that information provision has similar effects on policy preferences across countries. The few existing differences in policy preferences between countries can be rationalized with differences in the education systems.
Information Provision and Preferences for Education Spending: Evidence from Representative Survey Experiments in three Countries (with M. Cattaneo, P. Lergetporer, G. Schwerdt, K. Werner, and S.C. Wolter). European Journal of Political Economy 63: 101876, 2020
School Closures Must Not Lead to a Complete Stop to Learning
Corona-related school closures pose unimagined challenges for the school system and families. In a commentary in the Wirtschaftsdienst and an interview on sueddeutsche.de, I argue that the school closures must not lead to a complete stop of learning. Schools and teachers must provide students with materials and tasks so that they can stay on the ball. In particular, they must ensure, by means of appropriate feedback obligations, that the children and youths are actually engaged with the learning material. Structured daily routines can also help to cope with the immense psychological strain on children and families caused by being at home for weeks on end and a lack of contact with peers.
Schulschließungen: Kompletten Lernstopp verhindern. Wirtschaftsdienst 100 (4): 228, 2020
Natürlich geht beim Fernunterricht etwas verloren. sueddeutsche.de, 19.3.2020
Conferences Cancelled
As many other conferences, those of the German Association for Empirical Education Research (GEBF) and the German Society for Educational Sciences (DGfE), at each of which I had been invited to give a keynote lecture, fell victim to the Corona virus. How sad about the missed scientific exchange! Unfortunately, we also had to cancel the conference announced in the previous entry. But the planned program still provides an exciting overview of current research on the effects of different school reforms on educational outcomes:
Original program of the cancelled conference "Econometric Evaluation of School Reforms"
February 2020
Program of Conference on "Econometric Evaluation of School Reforms"
Trends in the global economy, technological change, and inequality pose fundamental challenges for the future of our societies. With its crucial role for future prosperity and cohesion, the educational achievement of the population promises an important lever for policy to empower people to face the societal challenges. To better understand which educational policies can help improve the efficiency and equity of education systems, the ifo Center for the Economics of Education and the WZB Berlin Social Science Center will jointly host a conference that brings together researchers who study how different school reforms affect student outcomes. The keynote lecture will be delivered by Joshua Angrist (MIT). The program of the conference is now available:
Program of conference on "Econometric Evaluation of School Reforms" on 15-16 May 2020 in Munich
January 2020
Paper on Employment Effects of Skill Signals Accepted at European Economic Review
Employers cannot directly observe many of the skills of labor-market entrants. Therefore, individuals acquire signals of their skills to report on their CVs. Our paper, which has just been accepted for publication at the European Economic Review, studies which signals are valued by employers. We conduct a randomized lab-in-the-field experiment among nearly 600 human-resource (HR) managers of German firms who choose between CVs with randomized skill signals. We find that signals in both studied domains – cognitive and social skills – have significant effects on being invited for a job interview. But the signals that prove relevant, expected, and credible differ by context, for example between apprenticeship applicants and college graduates. While grades and social skills are significant for both genders, females are particularly rewarded for IT and language skills. Older HR managers value school grades less and other signals more. HR managers in larger firms value college grades more.
Skills, Signals, and Employability: An Experimental Investigation (with M. Piopiunik, G. Schwerdt, and L. Simon). European Economic Review 123: 103374, 2020
Paper Quantifying Impact of Improved Education in EU Accepted at Education Economics
While the educational goals of policy makers are often motivated by potential economic outcomes, the magnitude of any such gains are seldom available to guide any educational policies. We quantify the economic benefits of educational improvement covered by the educational goals of the European Union, providing disaggregated projections for each of the EU countries. The paper, based on our recent EENEE Analytical Report, has just been accepted for publication in the journal Education Economics. Building on prior research that shows the strong historical relationship of growth and educational achievement, we present comparative economic results for alternative policy goals. An increase in student achievement of 25 PISA points across the EU would, for example, be expected to add €71 trillion in present value to EU GDP over the status quo. By contrast, the more limited EU goal of reducing low achievement to 15 percent by country would have an impact of only €5 trillion.
A Quantitative Look at the Economic Impact of the European Union’s Educational Goals (with E.A. Hanushek). Education Economics 28 (3): 225-244, 2020
Two Chapters Published in New Volume on "The Economics of Education"
I have coauthored a couple of survey chapters for a nice collection of overview chapters on the economics of education - one on empirical methods and one on education and economic growth.
Empirical Methods in the Economics of Education (with G. Schwerdt). In: S. Bradley, C. Green (eds.), The Economics of Education: A Comprehensive Overview, Second Edition, London: Academic Press/Elsevier, 3-20, 2020
Education, Knowledge Capital, and Economic Growth (with E.A. Hanushek). In: S. Bradley, C. Green (eds.), The Economics of Education: A Comprehensive Overview, Second Edition, London: Academic Press/Elsevier, 171-182, 2020