monitoring-KaY-wave

Monitoring of the KaY-wave predicts an earthquake.

Many laboratories of the world are engaged in the search of prediction methods for earthquake warning. Therewith, the predecessors that from olden times have given good results have been the initial material. However, some predecessors are locally related to the location of the forthcoming earthquake epicenter, and some precursors inform on the earthquake that would be far away from the precursor’s localization and in rather long time. In his researches the author has observed predecessors “in loco”, that were seconds ahead of the earthquake, but there were forerunners being tens hours ahead of the earthquake and have been within 1 000 kilometer and even a few weeks , therewith being at the other side of the globe, from the epicenter of the oncoming earthquake.

The prediction experiments on grey mullet, crawfish and anomalous dog In Haifa laboratory the initial works were bound to determine the possibility of the earthquake prediction on animal abnormal behavior.

After the primary observation of a great quantity of small-sized marine organisms grey mullet and crawfish have been picked out for the further experiments.

From many drivers’ reports grey mullet has been known in case of danger to gather in a tight pack. Besides, the method of grey mullet fishing is known when low voltage electrodes induce a low current in the water. Therewith all fish swing in one direction – to anode, and then it is swung into the tunnel.

During the process of several-years observation the following has been defined:

30 minutes-1 hour prior to the earthquake of magnitude more than 3-3,5 in the area of 500 km from Haifa fish in the aquarium were collecting in a tight flock, with their heads directed to the epicenter of the oncoming earthquake.

Video: https://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/buri-1/Buri.wmv?attredirects=0&d=1

If the magnitude of the future earthquake was more than 5, the fish started harshly to jump out of the pack and again returned to its place.

This suggests the initiation of the water polarization in the epicenter area acting on the fish for half an hour-an hour before the earthquake, forcing them to gather in a tight pack and turn their heads directed to the forthcoming earthquake epicenter.

Moreover, another reason that causes a fish characteristic response has been revealed: the occurrence of abrupt strokes, ear unheard, but causing pain at fish, forcing them abruptly to leave their localization, and even jump out of the water, as it was prior the earthquake of 6 magnitudes in Crete.

The reaction of a crustacean-nutcracker Alpheus Sp. before the earthquake in the area of 700 km radius is very interesting. They live in the sand, digging tunnels, building piles of shells near the exits and occasionally smack in fish approaching … But if an earth vibration with a 3,5-4,5 magnitude is possible in this area, a crayfish does not go into the hole, but it sits near the entrance and it is very evident.

One hour prior the earthquake it is nervous and smacks as if it shoots a gun.

Prior the earthquake of a 5-6 magnitude the crustacean-nutcracker begins panic rushing around the aquarium.

I have seen such a response twice. Firstly, it was an earthquake with a 6 magnitude in Crete (1 400 km), and secondly it was in the Strait of Aden and Saudi Arabia (~ 2000 km) with a more than 6 magnitude.

Thus, the anomalous behavior of fish and crustacean-nutcracker can say on several factors that influence their behavior before an earthquake.

The first factor is water ionization.

Infrasonic impacts, ear inaudible, but causing pain are the second factor.

Using only these data during 2003-2005 I had managed correctly to predict ~ 40 earthquakes in the 500 km area from Haifa 1-2 hours prior the beginning of the earth vibrations.

Seismologists and biologists often tried to predict earthquakes with the help of dogs.

The article [1] describes typical cases of positive examples: “After the Spitak earthquake in Armenia the story of Alice husky and A.Garibyan, it’s host from Leninakan, has become widely known. In the morning of December 7, two hours before the earthquake the host brought the dog for a walk, but Alice refused to return back to the house, creepy howling and barking. The frightened host called the police, the city council, the radio, and everywhere he was ridiculed. To be on the safe side, Garibyan decided to withdraw his family from the house and offered his neighbors to do the same. And not in vain, since at this moment the city was collapsed. Note that A.Garibyan spent twenty years on the Kamchatka Peninsula and from there moved the Husky, which saved the lives of his family.

… Unfortunately, not every animal reacts on the approaching underground storm.

French bulldog of one of the authors of this book [1] is sweetly sleeping in any earthquake…

The Collie species dog and the cat attitude to all earthquakes with Olympic calm.

Studies on the use of dogs-precursors based on statistical parameters and the large number of animals have not brought success to scientists in California who wanted to use the data on the number of escaped animals for the prediction of earthquakes.

The participants wrote in many forums about the indifferent behavior of many dogs.

This means that on the average, a dog, like many animals does not have an obvious abnormal behavior before the earthquake.

However, there were noted some dogs responding to the earthquake and their reactions demonstrate the pain, associated with the anomalous behavior of these isolated individuals.

A dog T. (whose serious illness was later revealed) had an obvious abnormal response to the earthquake. Her mistress wrote on the forum, that before the New Year, when all were sitting at the table, the frightened dog suddenly climbed on her lap. And within some time the clatter of dishes reported on a fair earthquake.

This dog refused to enter the house two hours before the earthquake of 5 magnitudes in Israel and her response was very obvious. [2]

All “strange reactions, showing a gratuitous fear in this dog”, have been fixed within a few months of the registration time, noting all her actions.

The behavior of the dog managed to identify three levels of fear.

1. The dog is quiet and no fear has been noticed.

2. The dog is nervous without reason, as if it is listening, alert, sometimes hidden under the table.

3. The dog is frightened, clinging to the feet of the mistress, tries to hide in her arms, pulls out.

The dog with such a gradation can be regarded as a rough sensor-indicator, construct a diagram of the relationship of abnormal behavior with the time and compare the distribution of earthquakes in time (within 4 000 km), according to seismologists.

When the reaction diagram of the dog and the data on the past earthquakes have imposed on the axis of time , it appeared that:

1. No dog reaction before an earthquake up to 3.5 magnitudes in the 1 000 km area has been noted.

2. Earthquakes of 4.5 magnitudes have been preceded with the second stage reaction of the dog.

3. Earthquakes of more than 5.5 magnitudes have been preceded with the third stage reaction of the dog.

The reaction of the dog has been noted prior the earthquakes of:

- more than 4 magnitude in the 200 km area;

- more than 5 magnitude in the 2 000 km area;

- more than 6 magnitude in the 4 000 km area

Thus the threshold of the reaction of the dog and the degree of attenuation of “ the efficient cause of the nervousness" in the dog was defined.

But there with a very strange dependence has been revealed.

1. The reaction time of the dog forestalled the earthquake the more, the further the epicenter of the oncoming earthquakes was. [3]

Thus, the earthquake at the 200 km area has happened in 2 hours after the dog reaction…

The earthquake at the 1 000 km area – 8 hours before;

The earthquake at the 1 300 km area – 12 hours before;

The earthquake at the 800 km area – 7 hours before

Therewith:

t - time interval between the onset of registration of the anomalous behavior of the dog and the start of the corresponding earthquake;

D – a distance between the sensor and location of the epicenter of the corresponding earthquake.

This can be explained only by the wave, which moves from the periphery to the site of the future epicenter of the earthquake with speed D/t and accompanying it with infrasound, causing pain reaction in animals that can hear low and infrasonic vibrations.

Dogs can’t speak, but there are people whose analogous responses are known from documentary sources.

Thus, Charlotte King, an inhabitant of California, feels pain because of the effect of the infra-low acoustic frequency on her organism. Note, that she has felt pain ~ 8-10 hours before the earthquake that has happened afterwards at the 1 000 km distance. It fits exactly to the line of the above diagram.

All the above confirms that, on the average, we can’t find the described effect at every dog, but there are animals and people who react to the occurrence of infrasound with the pain sensation, and it makes them sensors- indicators and that can prevent a forthcoming earthquake.

The diagram and correlation indicate the presence of a wave moving to the epicenter, and taking part in the genesis of the earthquake.

In view of the waves, that the animals react on, the reason for prediction failure using animals in China becomes understood.

Chinese scientists have successfully predicted locations and approximate time of the earthquake several times. The consequence of this work was a unique Haychen forecast. The general exultation on this occasion, however, was premature.

It was noted a large number of false anxiety raised by animals, that suggested to abandon their use. A year later, 150 km from Beijing, unfortunately, there was an unpredicted earthquake with 7 magnitudes that killed 400 thousand people.

The cause of false alarms has been a misconception that dogs warn about the earthquake that will be near the location of the animal but it could be a wave, a warning about the forthcoming distant earthquake.

Simultaneously with experiments on animals, the author conducted observation of the clouds, which he called "Herolds", has identified the cause of their appearance and physical model of their formation (wave-like density distribution of small light particles under the influence of the stationary infrasound wave). [4]

Also an apparent relationship with the subsequent earthquakes in the direction pointed out by "Herolds" (perpendicular to the lines of the clouds) has been registered. [4]

The article about a man who predicted the earthquake in the mountains, listening to the ground with bare feet, "flashed" on one of the sites. [6]

In St. Petersburg University in the same period, the work on the registration of seismo-gravitational oscillations has been carried out and the existence of their relation with powerful distant earthquakes has been noted. [8]

All this suggests that the desired wave must have the following parameters:

1. Move towards the epicenter of the earthquake at 100 km/ h speed and lower.

2. Possess the properties of the surface wave.

3. Fluctuations in the Earth's crust must occur on the audio and infrasonic frequencies, such amplitude can be felt by trained bare feet.

In these conditions, it was easy to pick up the sensor and to detect this wave. To do this, a sensor that did not register earthquakes itself, but gave an electrical signal proportional to the amplitude of (gravity-seismic) of low and infrasonic frequencies vibrations was created.

The author conducted a continuous demonstration test recording signal for three days at two locations separated by a 5 km distance from each other to resolve local technical noise.

The records of the both stations were identical with a slight shift of peaks on the time schedule.

According to the proposed linear relationship between the time of registration of the peak and the start of the corresponding earthquake on the distance between the sensor and the epicenter of this earthquake the schedule has been plotted and the correlation of these parameters has been calculated.

The dependence of the difference in arrival time of the wave and the start of shocks of the corresponding earthquake from the distance sensor to location of the epicenter of this earthquake, gave a correlation of 0.99, indicating the mathematical formula dependence of these parameters.

The author called this wave the Kozyrev - Yagodin wave (KaY-wave) by the author’s name (Yagodin) and N.A.Kozyrev, the name of the great Russian astronomer, who predicted the relationship of the tectonic activity of the Earth and the Moon, and that is of great importance in the genesis of earthquakes and the formation of this wave. [3]

In view of this formula an experimental comparison of the location of the actual peaks, predicting a specific group of earthquakes and their estimated position on the time schedule for the same group of earthquakes were conducted.

The results illustrate the absolute accuracy and stability of the method of the calculation formula, because the data did not change during the whole period of studies (from 2005 to 2012).

This suggests the possibility of using these stations with the outlined sensors for determining the direction of the KaY- wave front and predictions of forthcoming earthquake parameters. Knowing the time of the occurrence of the wave peaks on the sensors and their coordinates and velocity of the wave, it is easy to calculate the arrival time of waves in the epicenter point of the forthcoming earthquake and the onset of the earthquake.[2,9,10]

The graduated graph of the relation of the peak amplitude on the sensor and the magnitude of the earthquake is constructed and correction factors are calculated at the real peaks and the related following earthquakes .

The following records are shown from two stations, where the possibility of determining the direction of the wave front to the epicenter of the future earthquakes, using the registration KaY-waves at neighboring stations is clearly visible.

Sequential passing of the KaY-wave front through the station in the wave moving in the direction of the future earthquake epicenter.

When the wave moves to Greece, at first the peaks of the wave are recorded at the station in Nesher and then in Haifa.

When the wave moves in the opposite direction (to the East), at first the peaks of the wave are recorded in Haifa, and then in Nesher.

In 2004 this method of the use of animals got a positive appraisal of Dr. Arie Gilat (Israel Institute of Geology).[11]

In 2004-2005, the Institute of Technion (Haifa), confirmed the possibility of creating an automated system for monitoring the behavior of fish and the prediction of earthquakes. [13]

in 2005 the method was presented at the session of the Knesset Committee on Science and got the approval of Dr. Einat Aronova (Weizmann Institute). [12]

In 2006, the discovery and the method and were approved by the EC of the RAS and it was recommended proceeding with the research in this area. [11]

The method has been many times presented by the author alone and in collaboration with the Academy of Civil Protection of the Ministry of Emergency Situations at seminars and conferences on humanitarian operations in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tel-Aviv in 2009-2011.[2, 9, 10]

In 2012 on the results of Expertise of the RAS, the discovery of the Yagodin- Kozyrev wave (KaY-wave), "Heralds" wave-precursors has been confirmed and the test of earthquake prediction in real-time was praised. The complex of methods proposed by the author is recommended for use in efficient accurate prediction of earthquakes.

Литература:

1. В.Н. Андреев В.Н. Медведев. ПРОБЛЕМЫ СЕЙСМИЧЕСКОГО РИСКА В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ САХА (Я).

2. Alexandr Yagodin. (WO/2008/053463) SYSTEM OF THE PREDICTION OF THE EARTHQUAKE. Patent РСТ.

3. А.Ягодин. Международный Центр предупреждения (предсказания) землетрясений. http://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/r1

4. A.Yagodin. «Heroldes», "Heralds" are formations in the clouds, that predict earthquakes. https://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/heroldes-e .

5. "The Charlotte King Effect (c)" http://www.viser.net/~charking/

6. The man who predicts earthquakes. http://www.rediff.com/news/2001/feb/02spec.htm

7. Н.А. Козырев. «О связи тектонических процессов Земли и Луны». Изд. ЛГУ 1991г.

8. Л.Н. Петрова, Е.Г.Орлов, В.В. Карпинский. «О динамике и структуре колебаний Земли в декабре 2004 года по наблюдениям сейсмогравиметра в Санкт-Петербурге.» НИИФ им. Фока Спб Университет. Физика Земли. 2007.»№2.

9. E.G. Mirmovich, Civil Defense Academy, EMERCOM of Russia, сand.sci. (Ph-Math), associate professor, A.P. Yagodin, Laboratory of Earthquake Prediction, Haifa, Israel “Development of Earthquake Prediction System Pilot Module based on Patent wo/2008/053463 to Yagodin as Humanitarian Task”. EMERCOM of Russia Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis 14th International Scientific and Practical Conference on the Issues of Protection of Population and Territories from Emergencies Modern Aspects of Humanitarian Operations in Emergency Situations and Military Conflicts. Moscow May 20, 2009.

10. Э.Г. Мирмович, к.ф.-м.н., доцент. Академия гражданской защиты МЧС России «К ПРОБЛЕМЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ИСТОЧНИКОВ ЧС ГЕОФИЗИЧЕСКОГО ПРОИСХОЖДЕНИЯ». Изд.Химки. 2008

11. Review from d. Arie Gilat.

https://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/ocenka

12. Protocol of Israel Knesset .

http://www.knesset.gov.il/protocols/data/html/mada/2005-07-20.html

13. Analysis of behavior of fish in aquarium by Daphna Karnin and Nataly Slutsky Supervised by Johanan Erez (Technion). http://visl.technion.ac.il/projects/2005s01/