Russian Expert Committee for Earthquake Prognosis and Seismic Threat Assessment
51, Nikoloyamskaya, 109004, Moscow, J-4.
Tel: (495) 912-36-18, Fax: (495) 911-30-28
October 8th, 2012, Moscow
Expert Report
On materials submitted to Russian Academy of Science
Att: Mr. Alexandr Yagodin, Haifa, Israel, Earthquake Prediction Laboratory
Dear Mr. Yagodin,
The Expert Committee has reviewed the materials,
you have been introducing me with for half a year. The preliminary introduction became the grounds for carrying out the examination of Your Method.
In this regard I wish to inform you of the following:
1. The earthquake prediction method description is based on the Kozyrev-Yagodin wave (KaY-wave) measuring data. Similar measuring was partially conducted in Russia at the end of 90-s at the Physics faculty of St. Petersburg University. In several cases, similar forerunner effects of strong earthquakes in low-frequency seismic signal were found. The scientific society did not pay due attention to these results.
2. The scientists in Siberia have been examining the specific cloud anomalies occurred above the earth crust fracture. Even though this method has been successfully approbated in Japan and China, the attitude in Russia to its implementation is rather skeptical.
3. The comparison estimated position table of the KaY-wave pick predicting the earthquake on the time axis and real record from station sensors in Israel demonstrated the impressive coincidence staying beyond random values.
4. The correlation diagram and table of distance relation from sensor location to the earthquake epicenter point and the time between KaY-wave pick occurrence at the sensors and the time of the beginning of the earthquake related to this wave are of particular interest.
5. The on-line earthquake predictions in Chile (based on the station data in Argentina), in Turkey, Iran - on the basis of the station data in Israel and further seismology data confirming the provided predictions along with pick graphs, photos of "Herolds" the abnormal cloud forerunners and the photos of abnormal fish behavior during the period directly preceding the earthquake are of doubtless interest.
Having examined the received materials,
I believe that the "Herolds" photos provided by you are convincing (considering thereby the researches of the cloud anomalies prior to the earthquake carried out in Novosibirsk).
I wish to specifically note the prognosis of the earthquake with M=5.9 of June 19th, 2012 in the area of South-East Turkey and the following development of the seismic activity in this area of Mediterranean as significant success.
Based on the provided data, Russian Academy of Science believes that it is important to keep on developing the station modules for timely earthquake prediction, possible being the grounds for future wide earthquake prediction network by way of the complex implementing the KaY-wave monitoring data.
Yours sincerely,
Aleksey Nikolayev
Prof. in Geophysics, the Committee Chairman