Summary: For much of the post-World War II era, the popularity of a president was largely determined by his success in foreign policy and in handling foreign crises. With the ending of the cold war at the end of the 1980s, skills in handling domestic issues became equally important for presidents and their staffs. Presidents Bush (I) and Clinton are perfect examples of this: Bush's popularity was sky-high after his Desert Storm victory, yet he ended up being defeated by Bill Clinton largely because of economic problems that developed in the closing years of his term. Despite a mountain of personal and ethical issues that surrounded him, President Clinton was able to keep high approval ratings because of a continuing successful economy.
Keywords
New Right: conservative movement that began in the 1960s and supported Republican candidates into the twenty-first century; many voters from the South and from the middle class were attracted by the New Right's emphasis on patriotism and strict moral values.
Operation Desert Storm (1991): military action by the United States and a coalition of allied nations against Iraq and its leader Saddam Hussein after Iraq had invaded Kuwait; this operation was a resounding success, although the decision was made not to force Saddam Hussein from power.
Whitewater: a series of real estate dealings in Arkansas involving Bill Clinton long before he became president; Republicans accused Clinton of associated financial improprieties, but no charges were ever proven. The Whitewater affair was one of several accusations that eventually led to Clinton being impeached by the House of Representatives but acquitted by the Senate.
Contract with America: a list of conservative measures proposed by Republicans after winning control of the House of Representatives in 1994; it included term limits and promises to balance the federal budget and to reduce the size of the federal government. Republican supporters of the Contract were led by Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.
THE 1988 ELECTION
Republican advertisements in 1988 touted George Bush as "the most qualified man of our times" to be president. Bush had served as a congressman, as the American ambassador to the United Nations, and as the director of the CIA. The New Right had never been entirely comfortable with Bush during his eight years as Reagan's vice president; to appease them, he nominated Senator Dan Quayle, a staunch Conservative, as his vice presidential nominee.
The Democrats nominated Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis as their candidate. Dukakis campaigned on his experience as a governor, touting the "Massachusetts miracle" that had pulled the state out of its economic doldrums. Televisions during the 1988 campaign were glutted with negative advertisements, the most notable being one that linked Dukakis to Willie Horton, a black man who had raped a woman while taking advantage of a furlough program established in Massachusetts by the governor. Bush won the election rather handily, despite being behind Dukakis in early polls.
THE PRESIDENCY OF GEORGE BUSH
Conservative suspicions of Bush increased during the first months of this presidency. Many considered his stated desires for a "kinder, gentler America" as a heretical attempt to distance himself from the social policies of former president Reagan. Bush's major domestic problem was an ever-growing federal deficit. To broker a deal with Congress to lower the deficit, Bush broke his campaign promise of "no new taxes" and, in 1990, signed a bill authorizing tax increases. Many Conservatives never forgave him for this decision. During Bush's term, few substantive domestic programs were instituted; some commentators complained of the gridlock created by a Republican president and a Democratic congress.
During the presidency of George Bush, the 45-year-old cold war ended. In late 1988, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev admitted to Communist party leaders that the vast portion of the Soviet economy that was devoted to military spending and to "protecting" the satellite countries was preventing economic growth of any type from taking place. In 1989, the Soviets began to withdraw support from the satellite states; many in Moscow naively believed that Communist leaders in the satellite states could remain in power without being propped up by the Soviet Union. In Poland, Solidarity, the non-Communist labor party, removed the Communist government from power; throughout late 1989, communists were removed from power in all of the satellite nations. Many of the republics of the Soviet Union also desired independence. In December 1991, Russian President Boris Yeltsin announced the abolition of the Soviet Union and the creation of 11 independent republics.
A large amount of American aid was pumped into Russia and the other Eastern European states. American academics rushed to Moscow and other major centers in the region, explaining to leaders how capitalism could be introduced in the shortest period of time.
American aid was also sent to help several of the former Soviet republics dismantle the nuclear missiles that had been placed there in the cold war era. The meaning of the cold war is still being debated by academics; whether the United States won the cold war or whether the Soviet Union lost is still a topic of numerous books and historical papers.
The central crisis of the Bush presidency began on August 2, 1990, when the army of Iraq invaded Kuwait. Fears that Saddam Hussein's next target would be Saudi Arabia, the largest exporter of oil to the United States, pushed the United States into action. Almost immediately, in Operation Desert Shield, large numbers of American troops were sent to protect Saudi Arabia.
Encouraged by the United States, member states of the United Nations condemned the Iraqi aggression and authorized the creation of a multinational military force to remove Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. The high point of the Bush presidency was the personal diplomacy undertaken by the presidency to get almost all of the states of the Middle East to support military action against Iraq. On February 24, 1991, a ground offensive, termed Operation Desert Storm, was mounted against Iraq. Iraqi casualties were over 40,000, while the Americans (who made up most of the troops of the UN international force) lost 150 soldiers in battle. Iraqi soldiers surrendered by the hundreds as they retreated from Kuwait. In a decision that would later be questioned, American forces did not move into Iraq and force Saddam Hussein from power. It should be noted that this was not part of the United Nations mandate, and that such an action would have definitely created division in the Middle Eastern coalition so carefully crafted by Bush.
Bush's popularity was at an all time high after Desert Storm. However, problems soon arose that his administration seemed incapable of solving. A recession and continued economic difficulties hit the United States in early 1992. In addition, the end of the cold war brought new difficulties in several states formerly controlled by the Soviet Union. In former Yugoslavia, Serbs began to practice "ethnic cleansing" against Bosnian Muslims. Critics of Bush claimed that he lacked any "vision" of what the role of the United States should be in a post-cold war world.
THE 1992 ELECTION
George Bush and Bill Clinton ran against each other in 1992. The buzzword of politics in 1992 was "change," and both candidates claimed they were prepared to offer it. At the 1992 Republican National Convention, speakers of the New Right spoke about the need for "family values" and that a "religious war" against the Democrats was needed.
The former governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton, had the political sense to realize that Americans in the early 1990s were interested in economic rather than social issues, and pledged that as president he would overhaul the health care system and work for the preservation of the Social Security system. Clinton campaigned as a "New Democrat," stating that he was not another typical big-spending advocate of big government. During his presidency, Clinton on occasion took Republican concepts and claimed them as his own; right-wing critics such as Rush Limbaugh maintained that he would say or do anything if it meant his position would be improved in the polls.
A third candidate in the 1992 race was Texas multibillionaire Ross Perot. Perot spent a lot of money on campaign ads, complaining in these ads about how the politicians in Washington were beholden only to special interests, and that if elected he would bring "common sense" back to the White House. However, the charts depicting the American economy that he used on his advertisements were understood by few people.
Clinton won the 1992 election fairly easily. Many from the New Deal Democratic coalition that had deserted the Democrats for Reagan came back to vote for Clinton in 1992. Bush appeared oddly out of touch at several points during the campaign; at one point, he was caught looking at his watch in the middle of a presidential debate. Nearly 19 million Americans supported Perot; analysts maintain that the support for Perot hurt Bush more than it did Clinton.
THE PRESIDENCY OF BILL CLINTON
From the beginning, Clinton strove to create an administration different from the one that had preceded it. He appointed minorities and women to his cabinet. During his first term, there were several legislative successes, such as the Brady bill, which created a waiting period for handgun purchases, and the 1994 Anti-Crime bill, which provided federal funds to hire more police officials. However, several issues that Clinton attempted to tackle during his first term drew the ire of many. His attempt to legislate the proper status of gays in the military caused many in all branches of the military service to distrust him. His attempt to legislate a national health insurance plan was defeated by a combination of effective lobbying by the American Medical Association and intense advertising paid for by the healthcare industry. In addition, the fact that Hillary Rodham Clinton was actively involved in the formulation of healthcare policy caused debate over the proper role of a First Lady.
Many also began to question the Clintons concerning their financial dealings. Investments in a failed savings and loan company and in a land development called "Whitewater" caused much controversy; in August 1994, Kenneth Starr became the independent counsel in charge of investigating the Whitewater Affair. Many Clinton supporters felt that Starr moved too vigorously and was out to "get" the Clintons.
The 1994 Congressional elections appeared to be a sweeping rejection of the presidency of Bill Clinton. Republicans, led by new Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, supported the Contract with America, and promised to get rid of many social programs long supported by liberals. Republicans soon learned that the political skills of Bill Clinton were formidable, however. In an attempt to lessen the size of the federal government, there were brief shutdowns of the federal government in 1995 and 1996; on each occasion, public opinion polls stated that the American public strongly sided with the president in his argument that all of this was the fault of the Republicans.
Clinton's popularity rose further as the economy improved steadily in 1995 and 1996. The values of stocks rose, economic growth continued at a steady rate, and inflation remained low (many credited Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, for his ability to skillfully maneuver interest rates to keep inflation low and growth high).
Clinton's role as a "New Democrat" was again demonstrated when he supported passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. This legislation more carefully regulated the welfare system, cut the food stamp program, and gave power to the states to organize their own "welfare-to-work" programs. This program, which ended "welfare as we know it," was hailed by Clinton supporters as a sign of his pragmatism; many liberals were appalled that he so easily "sold them out."
In foreign policy, Clinton faced some of the same criticisms as Bush. Many claimed that the United States still did not have a post-cold war foreign policy "focus." Many debated the appropriate role of the U.S. military. A humanitarian mission to Somalia led to the death of 18 American soldiers in 1992. The U.S. military was sent in to restore the government of Jean-Bertrand Aristide in Haiti; Clinton also supported NATO air and military efforts to protect Muslims from the "ethnic cleansing" policies of President Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia. Americans remain as peacekeepers in Bosnia to this day.
President Clinton also favored the continued globalization of the economy, which included the lowering of tariffs and the expansion of global markets. Clinton worked with many Republicans to secure the passage of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in Congress. The goal of NAFTA was to gradually remove all trade barriers between the United States, Canada, and Mexico. As with welfare reform, a segment of the traditional Democratic base was infuriated by one of Clinton's policies. In this case, it was the labor unions who felt betrayed.
In 2000, Clinton unsuccessfully attempted to broker peace between the Palestinians and Israel. He increasingly became aware of the threats of fundamentalist Muslims against the United States. In 1993, bombings took place at the World Trade Center in New York City; American embassies were bombed in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998, and a United States naval ship docked in Yemen was bombed in 2000. Clinton attempted several bombing missions in response to these terrorist attacks, and in one instance came fairly close to killing Osama bin Laden, leader of the Al Qaeda terrorist network.
Campaigning on the continued strength of the American economy, Clinton became the first Democrat since Franklin Roosevelt to win back-to-back terms when he defeated long-time Senator Robert Dole of Kansas in the 1996 presidential election. Early in Clinton's second term, the era of gridlock appeared to be over, as both parties joined in passing legislation to reduce the federal budget. Yet, it was the Whitewater Affair that consumed the most political energy in Washington during the last years of Clinton's second term.
As was stated previously, Kenneth Starr and the Whitewater investigation was originally charged with analyzing the financial dealings of the Clintons in Arkansas. However, the investigation soon delved into other areas of the president's life. It was revealed that he had an affair with a White House intern, Monica Lewinsky. Clinton boldly proclaimed on television that he had never had "an affair with that woman." In a lawsuit brought against the president by Paula Jones (for alleged sexual harassment when Clinton was governor of Arkansas), Clinton denied, under oath, having an affair with Lewinsky. Physical evidence obtained from Lewinsky seemed to prove otherwise. Talk show hosts and other opponents stated that the case had long gone beyond merely the matter of the president having an affair; he actually lied under oath about it.
Clinton's approval ratings remained high throughout his second term; his approval was especially strong in black districts across the country. In the 1996 congressional elections, the Republicans lost five seats in the House of Representatives. Congressional calls for impeachment began; others wondered whether the actions of the president were actually the "high crimes and misdemeanors" that the Constitution stated were grounds for impeachment. On December 19, 1998, the House of Representatives passed two articles of impeachment (obstruction of justice and perjury), thus preparing the way for the trial in the Senate. Two-thirds of the Senators had to vote for an article of impeachment in order to remove him from office. Senate voting took place on February 12, 1999; neither article of impeachment received the necessary two-thirds vote. Many Clinton supporters that spoke during the congressional proceedings noted that despite millions of dollars being spent and years of investigation, the special prosecutor was unable to uncover any illegal actions by the president or his wife. Popular support for the president remained high, and economic prosperity and expansion continued.
THE 2000 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Excitement for the candidates in the 2000 presidential election was very low. The Democrats nominated Al Gore, Clinton's vice president, who often appeared wooden when giving speeches and stirred little emotion, even among long-time Democrats. George W. Bush, son of the former president, was the Republican nominee; in several early interviews, he appeared to lack the knowledge of critical issues that might be expected of a presidential candidate. Ralph Nader ran as a candidate of the Green Party.
When the final results were tabulated, Al Gore actually received some 500,000 votes more than Bush (Nader received less than 3 million votes). However, Gore surprisingly lost his home state of Tennessee, and the winner in the Electoral College would be the winner of the popular vote in Florida. Several recounts were held there, with Bush holding on to a tiny lead. Blacks in several parts of Florida (who voted heavily for Gore) complained that in parts of the state they had been prevented from voting. Further recounts were planned in contested counties. By a 5-to-4 vote on December 9, 2000, the Supreme Court of the United States temporarily halted all recounts. On December 12, the court ruled, again by a 5-to-4 margin, that recounts in contested counties only was a violation of the constitution, thus securing the election of George W. Bush. In the first months of his presidency, Bush concentrated much of his effort on domestic affairs; the events of September 11, 2001, would dramatically change the course of his presidency.
CHAPTER REVIEW
To achieve the perfect 5, you should be able to explain the following:
The ability to manage domestic issues were critical for a president's political success in the post-cold war era.
George Bush alienated many conservatives, especially when he broke his "no new taxes" pledge.
The end of the Cold War can be attributed to American policy decisions and to weaknesses in the infrastructure of the Soviet Union.
George Bush skillfully managed the Desert Storm operation against Iraq.
Bill Clinton presented himself as a "New Democrat" and focused on economic issues in the 1992 presidential campaign; these were important factors in his victory.
Clinton's failure on national health insurance helped pave the way for large Republican gains in the 1994 congressional elections.
Clinton and Newt Gingrich were formidable opponents in the budget battles of the mid-1990s.
The Whitewater Affair and investigations of the personal life of Bill Clinton were the defining political events of the second term of Clinton's presidency.
George W. Bush's election demonstrated the difficulties of arriving at a "final tally" in any election and was finally secured by the intervention of the United States Supreme Court.
Time Line
1988: George Bush elected president / Solidarity replaces Communist government in Poland
1989: Berlin Wall opened, Communist governments fall in Eastern Europe
1991: Persian Gulf War / Breakup of the Soviet Union / Beginnings of economic recession
1992: Election of Bill Clinton / American troops killed in Somalia
1993: NAFTA ratified by Senate / Terrorist bombings at World Trade Center
1994: Republicans sweep congressional elections / U.S. military enters Haiti / Kenneth Starr becomes Whitewater independent counsel
1996: Clinton reelected
1998: Federal budget surplus announced / Articles of impeachment passed in House of Representatives
1999: Clinton acquitted in impeachment trial in U.S. Senate
2000: George W. Bush elected president