10AR15-42

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Apologia Report 15:42 (1,047)

December 3, 2010

Subject: "Gloomy" future growth for Mormons, Jehovah's Witnesses?

In this issue:

CHRISTOLOGY - "Alternative Christs" approach used in recent secular religious studies text

ORIGINS - a theistic evolutionist review of Should Christians Embrace Evolution? Norman C. Nevin, ed.

NEW RELIGIOUS MOVEMENTS - a secular study comparing Watchtower, Mormon, and Adventist growth worldwide

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CHRISTOLOGY

Alternative Christs, Olav Hammer, ed. [1] -- a secular religious-studies perspective "covering a wide range of conceptions of Jesus and/or Christ: from the Antiquity (Gnosis, apocryphal literature, Manichaeism) over non-Christian notions (Islam, Hinduism) to Christian positions in Early Modern and Modern Europe (alchemists, Christian cabalists, Swedenborg, Mormonism, Theosophy, Ariosophy, Movement of Spiritual Inner Awareness, Aetherius Society). The articles, mostly written by experts in the respective fields, provide reliable information, on often difficult subjects. In terms of the status of historical questions in the field of religion, this collection indicates a shift in religious studies, where scholars are analyzing more and more the European Christian Tradition, formerly being a dominion of Christian theology."

Reviewer Helmut Zander adds: "The title 'Alternative Christs' suggests the existence of a non-alternative conception of Christ, but there is no account given or the normative suppositions which qualify an 'alternative' or a 'non-alternative' position." Numen, 57:3-4 - 2010, p552.

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ORIGINS

Should Christians Embrace Evolution? Biblical and Scientific Responses, Norman C. Nevin, ed. [2] -- in his review, former president of Christians in Science (publisher of this journal), R.J. Berry fumes that this book is "a concerted and frenzied assault on another book, that by Denis Alexander, Creation or Evolution: Do We Have to Choose? [3]. The authors [in Nevin's compilation] seem to have raided their lockers for all the anti-Alexander ammunition that they could find, even though much - perhaps all - of it has been retrieved from ancient battles where history shows that it caused more noise than damage. This desperation surprised me. I have just come back from a meeting of scientists, ministers and conservative theologians in the United States where, in a forum where doubts about evolution might be expected to be were widespread, Alexander's book was widely lauded. ...

"The hate figure for Nevin's men is the 'theistic evolutionist.' Alexander is revealed as the front man for this tribe, with geologist Davis Young and geneticist Francis Collins hiding behind him. He is portrayed as someone who has sold out to the enemy through bad science and sloppy exegesis. The problem is that the theistic evolutionist demonized by Nevin et al. is made of straw."

Berry discusses issues with the Bible's historicity, miracles, and genetics among others and concludes: "I was unpleasantly surprised by this book. IVP have a well-earned reputation for publishing sound scholarship. One may not always agree with it, but their books provide a solid basis for debate. Should Christians Embrace Evolution? fails badly on this criterion." Science & Christian Belief, 22:2 - 2010, pp207-208.

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NEW RELIGIOUS MOVEMENTS

"The Secular Transition: The Worldwide Growth of Mormons, Jehovah's Witnesses, and Seventh-day Adventists" by Ryan T. Cragun and Ronald Lawson -- the abstract reads: "A question that continues to attract researchers in the sociology of religion is what factors lead to religious growth. This article examines three well-known Christian religious groups that share many characteristics (i.e., supply-side factors): Mormonism, Jehovah's Witnesses, and Seventh-day Adventists. Membership data from these groups were gathered from 1960 through 2006 for most countries around the world. Membership growth rates were analyzed while controlling for country-level characteristics (i.e., demand-side factors). The results of this analysis indicate that both supply- and demand-side factors are important in determining growth. The strongest predictors of growth are: growth momentum in a country, the level of economic development, and several country-level characteristics. We conclude that socioeconomic development of countries ultimately leads to a secular transition, curtailing the growth of these religious groups."

Don't expect size comparisons here. The authors are contrasting influences on the growth of these movements from a religious-studies perspective with technical statistics discussion which may be daunting to non-specialists.

Some of the findings that stand out to us: "There is substantial variation both within and between the three religious groups. Mormons have the lowest growth rate in predominantly black countries whereas SDAs have the highest. Of the three groups, JWs are growing fastest in predominantly Muslim countries. ...

"Mormonism peaks in countries with HDIs [Human Development Index (www.tinyurl.com/2btjnp6)] in the .60-.79 range; SDA growth peaks in the .30-39 range; JW growth is fairly constant in modernizing countries. ...

"Mormons grow significantly slower in communist countries and Muslim countries. There is also a significant negative relationship between percentage of the population, that is, Mormon and Mormon growth, suggesting a carrying capacity or saturation point for Mormonism. ...

"Mormons grow ... significantly slower in [countries with] the highest HDI range. ...

"JWs grow significantly faster in predominantly black countries. However, they grow significantly slower in predominantly Muslim and currently communist countries [although the LDS and SDA have little success in those environments]. Additionally, as the percentage of JWs in a country increases, there is a significant and substantial decrease in growth."

One model used by the authors "indicates that there is a significant relationship with percentage Mormon, suggesting some competition between Mormons and JWs." In all the models used, there is an indication that "growth momentum is the single best predictor of JW growth. ...

"Mormonism is not growing at the same rate in predominantly black countries as are the other religious groups. That is probably due to the legacy of discrimination." On the other hand, the authors concede that "rapid growth of JWs and SDAs may be due to the generally high levels of growth in Africa, reflecting cultural acceptance of religion at the moment due to many of those countries modernizing."

One of the more unexpected findings of the study is "the lack of competition between these religious groups. ... "If our interpretation of secularization theory is correct, then the appeal of these religious groups around the world will continue to decline as development continues, slowing growth rates for these three religious groups even more in the future."

The conclusion adds: "Once countries reach a moderately high level of economic development (HDI of .8+), these three ['strict, proselytizing Christian religious groups' as the study describes them] experience very little to no growth. Whether that is due to modernization generally or social safety nets specifically, we cannot say. ... Either way, it is clear that once [the secular transition] point is reached, the future of these proselytizing religious groups in those countries is gloomy." Sociology of Religion, 71:3 - 2010, pp349-373.

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SOURCES: Monographs

1 - Alternative Christs, Olav Hammer, ed. (Cambridge Univ Prs, 2009, hardcover, 316 pages) <www.tinyurl.com/2esc3kk>

2 - Should Christians Embrace Evolution? Biblical and Scientific Responses, Norman C. Nevin, ed. (IVP, 2009, paperback, 192 pages) <www.tinyurl.com/2ehl8x5>

3 - Creation or Evolution: Do We Have to Choose? by Denis Alexander (Monarch, 2008, paperback, 384 pages) <www.tinyurl.com/26agt8s>

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