07AR12-35

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Apologia Report 12:35

September 20, 2007

Subject: Christian Century finds LDS stats "greatly inflated"

In this issue:

ISLAM - bibliographic essay covers selected English-language resources in print, film, and online

+ the controversial findings of "the first scholar to study the writings of early interpreters of Islam in a detailed manner"

MORMONISM - a valuable independent update on official LDS membership tracking practices and their reliability

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ISLAM

"A Topical Overview of Selected English Resources on Islam" by Paul D. Numrich, Associate Professor of World Religions and Inter-Religious Dialogue at Methodist Theological School -- this bibliographic essay "presents brief discussions of selected English language resources." Most of the sources that Numrich identifies are print media. However, he includes numerous online citations as well as some film productions.

To suggest an idea of how the essay is structured, the first category, "Islam and the Muslim World," covers about four pages. The second, "Islamic Law, Jurisprudence, and Ethics," takes up three pages. Third, "Islam in the West," is also three pages in length. The fourth and shortest section, at just one page, is "Islamic Apologetics and Da'Wah" in which da'wah is defined as "active propagation or advancement of the faith, towards non-Muslims and nominal Muslims alike."

Here, Numrich mentions that "Most Islamic apologetic and da'wah activity in the U.S. falls along a continuum between modernism and moderate revivalism, and the resources here reflect this range." The final section, "Christian Perspective," four pages in length, is divided equally between material that emphasizes the "discontinuities" between Islam and Christianity and material that emphasizes the "continuities" between them. To give you an idea of the latter's orientation, Numrich notes that "A current buzz phrase within the continuities Christian camp is 'Abrahamic Faiths,' pointing up the view that Jews, Christians, and Muslims all worship the same God/Allah who in the Qur'an calls Abraham 'The True Faith [sic].'" Journal of Religious & Theological Information, 7:2 - 2005 (just rec'd, and far behind schedule), pp11-28.

Quranic Studies: Sources and Methods of Scriptural Interpretation (expanded edition), by John Wansbrough [1] -- the mostly uncritical reviewer, John Jaeger, notes that "Wansbrough's book is considered important in that it provides a careful examination both of the Qur'an and the history of its early interpretation. He in fact is the first scholar [Quranic Studies was originally published in 1976] to study the writings of early interpreters of Islam in a detailed manner. Qur'anic Studies also has received a great deal of attention because in it Wansbrough set forth some unique and controversial ideas. Rather than approaching the Qur'an historically, he interprets it as a product of a developing religious community. That is, he bypasses the Islamic-Christian disputes about the historicity of the material in the Qur'an and instead used source and form criticism to comprehend the text in light of the emerging Islamic community life. ...

"Wansbrough rejects the traditional Islamic view that the Qur'an received its final form within fifty years of Muhammad's death. Rather, he suggests that the text did not become established until the end of the ninth century, a full 150 years after the prophet's death. Second, Wansbrough views Islam as a religious group that emerged from a Judeo-Christian context. He notes the close relationship between Quranic accounts of biblical figures with those from the Bible itself. This could be seen as undercutting the unique nature of Islam. Third, Wansbrough argues that the Quranic text contains a great deal of oral and written source material that dated well after Muhammad's death."

Jaeger warns that Quranic Studies is densely technical reading with much untranslated Arabic and German. He says that it is also filled with Quranic citations with which Wansbrough assumes the reader to be conversant. Journal of Religious & Theological Information, 7:2 - 2005 (just rec'd, and far behind schedule), pp116-119.

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MORMONISM

"Counting Mormons" by John Dart, news editor for Christian Century -- a valuable independent update on official LDS membership tracking practices and their reliability. Dart begins by reporting that "many researchers say that the official figures of Mormon membership in the U.S. - as well as the church's claims of having 13 million members worldwide - are greatly inflated or overstated. At fault, studies say, is the church's policy of counting as members nearly all baptized Mormons, including those who are lapsed in membership or who cannot be located.

"If more customary church tallies and membership estimates were used, scholars say, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints would have to cut its publicly announced [U.S.] figure nearly in half - to just a little over 3 million. ...

"Officials of the LDS Church admit that there are plenty of nonpracticing Mormons, but they do not want to give up on them. ... But everyone who has been baptized Mormon - usually at age eight - is included in official membership totals, which undoubtedly include some who have died. ...

"[A]ny unaffiliated Mormons who cannot be located are still counted as members until they would have reached the age of 110. Only then is their membership dropped because they are presumed dead."

Dart reports on another segment. One study showed that "from 1999 to 2004 conversions roughly equaled 'defections and apostasy.' As a result, more than three quarters of Mormon growth in the U.S. was due to the high Mormon birthrate, which outpaces the rate of deaths.

Then there is "the question of whether the LDS Church uses social statistics to promote itself in public." Sociologist Rodney Stark has "projected that exponential growth rates could give Mormonism 267 million members by 2080. 'The church bought into that prediction hook, line and sinker, and made it central to its 'juggernaut' public relations,' said Jan Shipps of Indianapolis, who in 1980 became the first non-Mormon president of the Mormon History Association.

"Mormon sociologist Rick Phillips concurs. Speeches by church leaders cite the expansion 'as evidence of the validity and legitimacy of church doctrines and programs,' wrote Phillips" who, according to Dart, was quoted in The Rise of Mormonism [2], by editor Reid L. Neilson.

And as for membership estimates from non-LDS sources, "'Growth stagnated in the 1990s and has topped off at about 200,000 new members per year over the last decade or so,' says Ryan Cragun, who is completing his doctoral studies at the University of Cincinnati. 'Growth has fallen in many countries around the world to about the level of population growth generally, around 2 percent,' said Cragun. 'The implication is that most of the new members are actually children of members,' said Cragun, an ex-Mormon who joined the University of Tampa faculty this year.

"One factor in lowered growth rates, LDS officials and social scientists agree, may have been the decision by the church in 2002 to 'raise the bar' for those who qualify as Mormon missionaries."

A helpful source for statistical measurement which may indicate correlation popped up in the south. "The shift toward seeking higher-quality missionaries came as two national censuses in Latin America asked people to identify their specific religious affiliation. ...

"The census reports in Mexico and Chile, after accounting for the different ages included, both listed Latter-day Saints in their nations at numbers only about 25 percent of what the church counted, according to Knowlton, a specialist in religion in Latin America.

"Another specialist, Henri Gooren, formerly of Utrecht University in the Netherlands, concluded last October on the basis of his field work in Costa Rica, Guatemala and Nicaragua that 'anyone joining the LDS Church in Central America had a 50 percent chance of becoming inactive in the first year.' In addition, 'core members' who meet all the expectations of LDS membership 'made up no more than about one-quarter of all registered members.'"

Regardless of the inflation, LDS growth cannot be discounted. "Eventually, because of birth rates and a special Mormon focus on the region, 'most Mormons will be Latin Americans by 2020,' predicted Gooren, who now teaches at Oakland University in Michigan." Christian Century, Aug 21 '07, pp26-29.

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Sources, Monographs:

1 - Quranic Studies: Sources and Methods of Scriptural Interpretation (expanded edition), by John Wansbrough (Prometheus, 2004, hardcover, 316 pages)

<http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1591022010/apologiareport>

2 - The Rise of Mormonism, Reid L. Neilson, ed. (Columbia Univ Prs, 2005, hardcover, 192 pages)

<http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/023113634X/apologiareport>

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