2022 Google censors Arctic methane threat
Humanity and the Biosphere are existentially threated by climate change and nuclear weapons. On 13 February 2022 I published the following detailed and documented analysis of the Arctic methane threat : Gideon Polya, “Arctic Methane Threat: Global Warming Increasing Bacterial Methanogenesis & Methane Release”, Countercurrents, 13 February 2022: https://countercurrents.org/2022/02/arctic-methane-threat-global-warming-increasing-bacterial-methanogenesis-methane-release/ .
While on 17 February 2022 a Bing Search for “Arctic methane threat” brought up this article as #1 on page #1 , a Google Search failed to elicit this article per se (there is only a reference to the article in an extensive side bar to another article). Indeed after going through every page of the Google Search results, and clicking on the link provided “to repeat the search with the omitted results included” , this also failed to elicit my article per se.
For whatever reasons, Google has effectively completely censored out this article by a scientist concerned about the existential threat posed by global warming to Humanity and the Biosphere - ergo, “Bing it!”
I have widely disseminated the following summary of my analysis:
START. Dear fellow humanitarian,
Dire Arctic methane threat to Humanity and Biosphere
The atmospheric level of the potent greenhouse gas (GHG) methane (CH4) is increasing alarmingly, and is now nearly triple the pre-industrial level. There is a positive feedback loop in the Arctic with increased CH4 leading to warming and thence to further increase in atmospheric CH4. In the warming Arctic CH4 release is occurring from huge methane-water clathrate deposits, and increasingly from permafrost melting and increased methanogenesis by anaerobic bacteria.
The atmospheric CH4 level is steadily increasing, noting that CH4 has a Global Warning Potential (GWP) relative to the same mass of CO2 (GWP 1) of 28–36 over 100 years, and 105 on a 20 year time frame basis and including aerosol impacts. CH4 is presently being massively released from the warming Arctic tundra and the Arctic Ocean sea bed. It has been estimated that 50 Gt of CH4 will be released in the Arctic in coming decades. This corresponds to 50 Gt CH4 / (1 t CH4 per 105 t CO2-equivalent) = 5,250 Gt CO2-equivalent or 5.8 times greater than the IPCC-estimated Carbon Budget of 900 Gt CO2 for an 83% probability of avoiding a catastrophic +2C temperature rise.
According to the IPCC (2021), compared to 1850–1900, global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 is very likely to be higher by 1.0°C to 1.8°C under the very low GHG emissions scenario considered (SSP1-1.9), by 2.1°C to 3.5°C in the intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5) and by 3.3°C to 5.7°C under the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 was over 3 million years ago.
The Summary for Policymakers for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (2014) stated “About 450 ppm CO2-eq, likely to limit warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels”, but 478 ppm CO2-equivalent was already attained by 2013. The atmospheric CO2-equivalent was about 460 ppm in 2010, 478 ppm in 2013, is presently about 500 ppm, and is heading towards a catastrophic circa 600 ppm by 2050.
The present global warming of about +1.1C is largely due to the burning of carbon fuels. However a consequence of burning fossil fuels is also generation of sulphur dioxide (SO2) that in turn generates global dimming sulphate aerosols in the upper atmosphere that restrict global warming to +1.1C from the circa +2C that it would be otherwise.
The IPCC estimates that the global temperature rise will reach +1.5C in the coming decade but the Emissions Gap Report from the UN Environment Programme has estimated that the national commitments at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference mean a temperature rise of +3.2C. It has been expertly estimated that mean temperature rise could reach 2°C by 2030, 3°C by the 2050s and 4°C by 2100 with catastrophic consequences.
We have effectively run out of time to avoid a catastrophic plus 2C temperature rise. However decent people are obliged to do everything they can to make the future “less bad” for future generations (see Amazon for Gideon Polya, “Climate Crisis, Climate Genocide & Solutions”, Korsgaard Publishing, Germany 2021).
Decent people must (a) inform everyone they can, and (b) urge and apply Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) against people, politicians, parties, collectives, corporations, and countries disproportionately involved in Humanity- and Biosphere-threatening climate criminality.
Under a corrupt, mendacious, pro-coal, pro-gas, ecocidal and anti-science Coalition Government, my own country, Australia, is among world leaders in 16 areas of climate criminality. Under Australia’s excellent compulsory and preferential voting system, in the forthcoming Federal election decent Australians who care for the Biosphere and future generations will utterly reject the climate criminal Coalition, vote 1 Green and put the Coalition last.
There is no Planet B. For a detailed and documented analysis see Gideon Polya, “Arctic Methane Threat: Global Warming Increasing Bacterial Methanogenesis & Methane Release”, Countercurrents, 13 February 2022: https://countercurrents.org/2022/02/arctic-methane-threat-global-warming-increasing-bacterial-methanogenesis-methane-release/ .
Yours sincerely, Dr Gideon Polya, Melbourne, Australia END.