Uncertainty in the future change of Sahel precipitation: a storyline approach   

Speaker: Paul-Arthur Monerie    

Chair(S): Scott Osprey

wednesday OCTOber 4, 2023, 13:00

Variations of the West African monsoon have strong impacts on Sahelian societies, on agriculture yield, drought and flooding risks, economy, among others. It is therefore extremely important to understanding how the West African monsoon could change in the future. However, future changes in Sahel precipitation are uncertain. We use a storyline approach which seeks to identify alternative plausible evolutions of Sahel precipitation and their driving factors. We show that changes in North Atlantic and in Euro-Mediterranean temperatures explain up to 60% of the central Sahel precipitation change uncertainty. These results indicate that constraining the future warming of the North Atlantic and the Euro-Mediterranean areas could allow reduce uncertainty at projecting the future change of the Sahel precipitation. 

The seminar will be broadcast live via Zoom, please follow the link below.

https://ncas.zoom.us/my/ncas.seminar.series  

Password: 619447  

Please note these seminars are intended to be internal to NCAS.  Please do not share details of the link without prior permission.

Please follow these simple guidelines to help make our seminar successful.

1. Please put yourself on mute.

2. If you have a question add it to the chat.  At the end of the talk the Chair will give you the opportunity to ask your question.