Projected changes in flash drought over the 21st Century    

Speaker: Emily Black    

Chair(S): Oscar Martinez-Alvarado and Andrea DITTUS

wednesday NOVEMBER 1, 2023, 13:00

In the summer of 2012, the US Midwest experienced the most intense drought in over 100 years. The 2012 event was an example of a ‘flash drought’, a phenomenon characterised by sudden and rapid transition from  normal to dry conditions. Although they are relatively rare in the present day climate, there is a growing body of evidence that flash droughts will become significantly more common in a future warmer climate. This seminar presents the first global  study of projected change in agricultural flash drought. Analysis of the CMIP6 ensemble indicates that, under  the SSP585 scenario, the frequency of flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid- and high-latitudes, with hot spots of change located in the temperature regions of Europe and the humid regions of South America and Southern Africa. Comparison across geographic and climatic zones demonstrates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and soil moisture. In a future climate, in which flash droughts are more common, their link with longer duration soil moisture deficit may be key to predicting seasonal drought and building resilience to weather-related food insecurity. Ongoing work is focusing on the interplay between short duration heat waves, flash drought and sustained soil moisture deficit.

The seminar will be broadcast live via Zoom, please follow the link below.

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