Have tropical cyclones migrated poleward? Why and why not?

Speaker: Xiangbo Feng

Using multiple sources of tropical cyclone (TC) data, we find that for the annual average, TCs in the western North Pacific have systematically both formed and moved further north. We also find that this poleward migration is largely attributed to a significant change in TC seasonality, rather than to a seasonally uniform migration as previously thought. In recent decades, due to fewer late-season TCs, seasonally higher-latitude TCs contribute relatively more to the annual-average location and seasonally lower-latitude TCs contribute less. This seasonality change is related to a stronger Pacific Walker Circulation. We call for the seasonality evaluation in long-term trends in other TC activity measures and in other ocean basins, which will improve our understanding of the links between climate change and TC trends.

Wednesday March 9, 2022, 13:00

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