Big Idea:

Explore the Likelihood of Different Outcomes

Investigate the Fairness of Games

Expectations:

D2. Probability: describe the likelihood that events will happen, and use that information to make predictions

• Probability: D2.1 use mathematical language, including the terms “impossible”, “unlikely”, “equally likely”, “likely”, and “certain”, to describe the likelihood of events happening, and use that likelihood to make predictions and informed decisions

teacher background

Students may benefit from prior knowledge and experience with:

• Making predictions based on a question, context, and data presented.

• Listing the possible outcomes of independent events (e.g., tossing coin, rolling number cube, spinning a spinner).

• Comparing the likelihood of two events (e.g., more likely, less likely, equally likely).

Key concepts

• The likelihood of an event occurring can be represented along a continuum from impossible to certain with benchmarks in between of unlikely, equally likely, and likely.

• "Equally likely" is sometimes thought of as an equal chance of events happening, such as rolling a 4 on a die or rolling a 6.

• Understanding likelihood can help with making predictions about future events.

Note

• Students’ ability to make predictions depends on an informal understanding of concepts related to possible outcomes, randomness, and independence of events. (These terms are for teacher reference only; students are not expected to use or define these terms.)

  • Possible outcomes: To make a prediction in a situation of chance, it is necessary to know all possible outcomes. For example, when drawing a cube from a bag containing red, blue, and yellow cubes, a possible outcome is a yellow cube, whereas an impossible outcome is a green cube.

  • Randomness: A random event is not influenced by any factors other than chance. For example, when a regular die is rolled, the result showing any number from 1 to 6 is entirely by chance and each roll has an equal chance of happening.

  • The independence of an event is connected to whether or not the outcome of that event is influenced by another event. For example, if you throw a dice two times, the outcome of the first toss does not impact the second toss.

After reading, children can...

• use the 4-part spinner on the Math Mat to play games of chance

• predict where the spinner will land most often, spin the spinner several times, record the results, and then talk about how the results align (or do not) with their predictions

• create an unfair spinner for a game, experiment with it, and explain why the game is unfair

As you share this story, encourage students to...

• make predictions about what will happen to Cam as she uses her spinner, number cube, and coin to help her make choices

• play along with Cam by rolling a number cube, flipping a coin, or spinning a spinner like the one found on the Math Mat (see the inside back cover)

• compare their chance results with those of Cam

All assessments, in the moment feedback/prompts, and independent tasks can be accessed by logging into your Mathology/Mathologie account.

SEL Self-Assessments (English) and Teacher Rubric

Log in to your Mathology.ca / Mathologie.ca account to access Intervention and Extension activities, Professional Learning Videos, Line Masters, and Assessment tools.

• Line Master 1: Chance (Assessment Master)

• Line Master 2: Connecting Home and School

• Line Master 3: Chance Math Mat

• Line Master 4: Spinner Winner

• Line Master 5: 2-Part Spinner

• Line Master 6: Hair Care Double Dare

• Line Master 7: Odd or Even

• Line Master 8: Use It or Lose It

• Line Master 9: Graphing Grid

• Line Master 10: Chance Problems

• Line Master 11: 10-Part Spinner