Grade 1: "Likelihood of events"

(From: Mathology)

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This Mathology lesson plan can be accessed in both English and French by logging into your Mathology.ca/Mathologie.ca account and searching for "Data Management Activity 5: Probability and Chance: Likelihood of Events"

Content

Big Idea:

Describing the likelihood of an event

Expectations:

D2. Probability: describe the likelihood that events will happen, and use that information to make predictions

• Probability: D2.1 use mathematical language, including the terms “impossible”, “possible”, and “certain”, to describe the likelihood of events happening, and use that likelihood to make predictions and informed decisions

Learning Goals

We want students to...

Formulating questions, collecting data, and consolidating data in visual and graphical displays help us understand, predict, and interpret situations that involve uncertainty, variability, and randomness

Success Criteria

I can...

Mathematicians use special words when they talk about chance: “certain/always,” “likely/sometimes,” and “impossible/never.”
We can use the words “more likely” and “less likely” to compare two events.

Materials

Line Master 9: Could It Happen? Events
Line Master 10: More Likely or Less Likely
Line Master 11: Assessment

(All Line Masters can be accessed by logging into your Mathology / Mathologie account)

Vocabulary

Impossible
Likely
Unlikely
Certain
More likely
Less likely
Chance
Event
Never
Sometimes
Always

teacher background

Students may benefit from prior experience with:

• using the language of probability, such as likely/unlikely, always/sometimes/never, to describe the likelihood of a familiar event occurring

Key concepts

The likelihood of an event happening ranges from impossible to certain.
Understanding likelihood can help with making predictions about future events and can influence the decisions people make in daily life.

The first stage of understanding the continuum is for students to be able to identify events that happen at the two ends and understand that the likelihood of other types of events falls somewhere in between.

Pedagogy

Minds On

Ask: “Who thinks it might be sunny today? windy? snowy?”

Then, ask if anyone thinks it might rain jellybeans! Accept students’ thinking and record it in student-friendly language.

Discuss some words that mathematicians use to show the chance of something happening (i.e., certain/always, likely/sometimes, impossible/never).

Action!

I am going to describe some events (Master 9). If you think the answer is “certain/always,” put your hand in the air. If you think the answer is “impossible/never,” shake your head. If you think the answer is “likely/ sometimes,” clap your hands. I will ask some of you to explain your answers.
Now we are going to decide which of two events is more likely or less likely to happen (Master 10). I will read two choices, and then I will read them again. When you hear the event that is more likely, give a thumbs-up. (When students seem ready, have them give a thumbs-down when they hear the event that is less likely.)

Teacher Moves

Probing Questions:

Why did you do that action?
How did you decide the chance of that event happening?
Did you change your mind about the chance of an event happening? Why?
Can you tell me about a certain or always event?

LOOK-FORS:

Are students able to make an independent decision?
Can students defend their thinking?
Are students able to classify events according to their likelihood of happening?
Are students able to compare events to say which one is more likely or less likely?

Consolidation Of Learning

Bring students together to talk about how they made their decisions about the events presented. Focus the discussion on reasoning. (“I know because…”; “I think so because…”; “It makes sense because…”)

Model and use the vocabulary of chance, then create a word wall.

Highlight for Students

Mathematicians use special words when they talk about chance: “certain/always,” “likely/sometimes,” and “impossible/never.”
We can use the words “more likely” and “less likely” to compare two events.

Supports for student learning

Accommodations: Focus on certain/always or impossible/never events.

Extension: Students come up with their own Could It Happen? events and share with the class.

Combined Grades Extension: Introduce the term equally likely. Provide students with events and have them name equally likely events.

Assessment

All assessments, in the moment feedback/prompts, and independent tasks can be accessed by logging into your Mathology/Mathologie account.

SEL Self-Assessments (English) and Teacher Rubric

Extension

Log in to your Mathology.ca / Mathologie.ca account to access Intervention and Extension activities, Professional Learning Videos and Assessment tools.

Technology

If you require support logging into your Mathology/Mathologie account, please contact Kerry Stack or Erica Doucet.

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