Big Idea: Create a code to perform a probability experiment.

Expectations:

Algebra

• C3. Solve problems and create computational representations of mathematical situations using coding concepts and skills.

  • C3.1 solve problems and create computational representations of mathematical situations by writing and executing code, including code that involves sequential, concurrent, repeating, and nested events

  • C3.2 read and alter existing code, including code that involves sequential, concurrent, repeating, and nested events, and describe how changes to the code affect the outcomes

Data

• D2. Describe the likelihood that events will happen, and use that information to make predictions.

  • D2.1 use mathematical language, including the terms “impossible”, “unlikely”, “equally likely”, “likely”, and “certain”, to describe the likelihood of events happening, represent this likelihood on a probability line, and use it to make predictions and informed decisions

Social-Emotional Learning (SEL) Skills in Mathematics and the Mathematical Processes

• A1. Throughout this grade, in order to promote a positive identity as a math learner, to foster well-being and the ability to learn, build resilience, and thrive, students will apply, to the best of their ability, a variety of social-emotional learning skills to support their use of the mathematical processes and their learning in connection with the expectations in the other five strands of the mathematics curriculum.

• In this lesson, to the best of their ability, students will learn to maintain positive motivation and perseverance as they apply the mathematical process of problem solving (develop, select, and apply problem-solving strategies) so they can recognize that testing out different approaches to problems and learning from mistakes is an important part of the learning process, and is aided by a sense of optimism and hope.

teacher background

• Have previous coding knowledge and/or experience using coding software (e.g., Scratch).

Explain to students that they are going to perform a probability experiment using a coin.

Ask students:

If I use a two-sided coin, what is the probability of it landing on heads?

What is the probability of it landing on tails?

Invite the students to “Think-Pair-Share”.

While students are sharing their thinking, illicit the vocabulary terms related to probability: "impossible", "unlikely", "equally likely", "very likely" and "certain".

Ask students:

If I flip this coin 20 times, predict how many times it will land on heads? Predict how many times it will land on tails?

Draw a probability line and add the vocabulary terms.

Instruct students to record their predictions using the appropriate probability vocabulary terms. Take note of the types of student predictions made so that you can highlight them during the lesson.

Opportunities for Differentiation

Ask or provide other probability examples from our everyday lives.

Discussion questions as a class:

What did you notice about your results from the first experiment?

(Draw out the notion that many predicted that flipping a coin 20 times would have resulted in 10 heads and 10 tails)

What did you notice about your results when you flipped the coin 100 times?

Turn and talk.

Ask students:

What conclusions can you make when you compare the results from your actual experiments and your prediction?

Would the results of this coin experiment show heads and tails being landed on more equally if we were to perform it more than 100 times? Why or why not?

Opportunities for Assessment

• predicting the results of a survey;

• performing a probability experiment using coding;

• using the vocabulary associated with probability to explain their reasoning;

• comparing the results of an experiment with a prediction;

• drawing conclusions from probability experiments.

1. Allow opportunities for students to change the theoretical probability.

For example, instead of getting a 1 in 2 probability of landing on tails, students could alter the code to change the probability of landing on tails to once in four flips (i.e., 1 in 4).

2. Encourage students to think about the probability of getting multiple heads or multiple tails in a row.

Present the following scenario to the students:

I flipped the coin 10 times in a row and landed on tails 10 times. This is unlikely to happen for real. But if it did happen, what is the probability of the coin landing on tails again on the 11th flip?

Ensure students understand that the theoretical probability of landing on tails remains as a 1 in 2 chance despite what the experimental probability in this scenario may lead them to believe.

The more flips you make: 100, 1000, etc. the closer the experimental probability will be to the theoretical probability. Students will explore more of this concept in Grade 5.