Grade 2: "Likelihood of Events"


(From: Mathology)

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This Mathology lesson plan can be accessed in both English and French by logging into your Mathology.ca/Mathologie.ca account and searching for Data Management Activity 7: Probability and Chance: "Likelihood of Events"

Content

Big Idea:

Using the language of chance to describe the likelihood of events

Expectations:

D2. Probability: describe the likelihood that events will happen, and use that information to make predictions

• Probability: D2.1 use mathematical language, including the terms “impossible”, “possible”, and “certain”, to describe the likelihood of complementary events happening, and use that likelihood to make predictions and informed decisions

Learning Goals

We want students to understand...


  • Formulating questions, collecting data, and consolidating data in visual and graphical displays help us to understand, predict, and interpret situations that involve uncertainty, variability, and randomness.

Success Criteria


I can...


  • We can use the language of chance to describe how likely an event is to occur.

Materials


  • Play coin (for Before)

  • Chart paper (1 sheet per pair)

  • Master 18: Value-Line Events

  • Master 19: Sample Value Line

  • Master 20: Value-Line Words

  • Master 21: Assessment

(All Line Masters can be accessed by logging into your Mathology / Mathologie account)

Vocabulary


  • Chance

  • Impossible

  • Never

  • Less likely / more likely / equally likely

  • Cerain

  • Always

  • Value line

  • Compare

  • Event

teacher background


Students may benefit from prior experience with:

  • using the language of chance, such as likely/unlikely, always/sometimes/never, to describe the likelihood of a familiar event occurring

  • understanding the meanings of more and less in other contexts (e.g., 5 is more than 3)

Key concepts

  • The likelihood of an event can be represented along a continuum from impossible to certain.

  • Complementary events are events that cannot happen at the same time.

  • If the likelihood of selecting a red marble out of a bag is certain, then its complement of not selecting a red marble out of a bag is impossible.

  • Understanding likelihood can help with making predictions about future events.

Pedagogy

Minds On

Review the language of chance: impossible/never, less likely, more likely, certain/always. Introduce equally likely.

Use a coin to show that when a coin is flipped, it is equally likely to land on heads or tails. Tell students that the chance that an event will happen is somewhere between impossible and certain.

Place value-line words along a wall to create a value line (see Masters 19 and 20).

Present events (Master 18) and have students move to the place on the value line that represents the likelihood that the event will happen. Have students explain their choice.

Action!

Give each pair a sheet of chart paper.

  • Together, make your own value line on chart paper.

  • Impossible/never and certain/always: Draw a picture, use words, or use materials to show one event for each chance word. Be sure to put each event beside the correct word.

  • Less likely, equally likely, more likely: Draw pictures, use words, or use materials to show two events that can be compared for each word.

  • Talk about why you used the event(s) that you chose for each word.

Teacher Moves


Probing Questions

  • Which events were most difficult to come up with?

  • Is there another event that could go here? Explain.

  • This event is less likely to happen. How could you make it more likely to happen?

  • Why do you think this event belongs here?

LOOK-FORS:


  • Do students place events along the value line appropriately?

  • Are students able to justify the placement of their events?

  • Are students able to compare events to decide which event is more/less likely or whether they are equally likely?

  • Do students have more difficulty coming up with events for some words (e.g., create events for always/certain and never/impossible, but struggle with more/less likely)?

Consolidation Of Learning

Have volunteers share and justify the events they created for the different chance words on the line. Discuss similarities between the events that are located at the same position on the value line. Ensure students understand that when using the words less likely, more likely, and equally likely, there must be two possible events to compare. Help students see that, unless an event is certain/always or impossible/never to happen, we can never be sure that the event will happen.


Highlight for Students

  • We can use the language of chance to describe how likely an event is to occur.

  • Unless an event is impossible or certain, we can never be sure it will happen.

Supports for student learning

Accommodations: Students place event cards (Master 18b) on the line.


Extension: Create as many events as possible for each chance word.


Combined Grades Extension: Create events involving bags of different coloured cubes/marbles for all chance words.

Assessment

All assessments, in the moment feedback/prompts, and independent tasks can be accessed by logging into your Mathology/Mathologie account.

SEL Self-Assessments (English) and Teacher Rubric

Extension

Log in to your Mathology.ca / Mathologie.ca account to access Intervention and Extension activities, Professional Learning Videos and Assessment tools.

Technology

If you require support logging into your Mathology/Mathologie account, please contact Kerry Stack or Erica Doucet.