High Demand for VLST
Current process at the Consulate General of France in the UK
The information in this section is based on report No. 142 SÉNAT SESSION ORDINAIRE DE 2019-2020 Enregistré à la Présidence du Sénat le 21 novembre 2019 : http://www.senat.fr/rap/a19-142-3/a19-142-31.pdf
In 2018 less than 1% of the 127,000 visa applications received by the Consulate Genenral of France in the UK were for long stay visas. This is approximately 1200 per year (page 21).
The process for issuing a visa has three phases (page 22)
TLS, the external service provider, is responsible for managing appointments, collecting applications and transmitting them to the visa department at the consulate.
The visa department at the consulate is in charge of processing applications and making allocation decisions (which can only be made by permanent staff, based on files generally processed by local law officers). It no longer has direct contact with the public.
TLS then return passports to the applicants. TLS also provide general information to users through a call centre.
The report comments that the current process has resulted in some operational issues.
The report advised that here are fewer than 100 consular officers and raised concerns about the suitability of the building (page 29).
The report noted that it was difficult to assess the projected increase in long stay visa application but assumed 2,000 to 10,000. It highlighted that the processing of long-stay visa files is significantly more cumbersome than that of short-stay visas (page 27).
Surge of VLST applications in early 2021
Most people will want a visa in advance of their first long visit to France as this will provide the greatest flexibility. It is the simplest approach and minimises uncertainty.
In July we asked second home owners when they planned to make their first visit to France. For those intending to obtain a VLST ( Visa Long Stay Temporaire) the figures are January 40%, February 9%, March 24%, April 16%, May 7%, later than May 3%. The high value for January reflects the large number who visit over the Christmas and New Year. This group will not be able to apply for a visa if it is required for future visits until they return to the UK. It is likely that they will return to France between March to May.
It can be seen that there will be a concentration of applications in February/March with very little activity after May.
French census data from 2016 shows there were some 100,000 second home owners who were UK residents. We believe that figure to now be closer to 200,000.
Our survey indicated that 21% of the respondents intend to apply for a visa and 24% remain undecided. Of this undecided group, some will probably apply for a visa.
To continue the analysis we used the hypothesis that there are 120,000 second home owners of which 15% will apply for a visa; of which 60% will be received by the consulate over a 7 week period in February and March. That equates to 10,800 applications being received at a rate of 1500 a week.
The consulate has planned for up to 10,000 extra long-stay visa applications. If spread across the year, this equates to 200 per week. Our survey indicates that 10,000 applications could all be received over a period of 7 weeks in the spring with virtually no demand from June onwards.
The impact of a large peak in demand
If the consulate is resourced at 200 applications a week (10,000 a year) and they receive 1500 applications during the first week, then this will create a backlog of several weeks. During the second week, the backlog will nearly double. In the 3rd week the backlog will grow further. Backlogs create their own issues resulting in more work per application.
The senate report mentions handling passports. There is a risk that these passports will be gridlocked for months thus preventing people travelling anywhere outside the UK until their passport is returned.
As delays escalate, people will make contact with TLS because they are anxious or worried about the delay, or they desperately need their passport for other travel.
The following might occur as a result of the delays;
France faces significant reputational and political damage due to an apparent lack of preparedness
Second homeowners reduce their 2021 travel and consequently rural areas of France lose financially.
People travel without a visa and then exceed Schengen limits either deliberately or unintentionally. Rectifying overstays may involve the British Ambassador's team in France.
People will blame their problems on delays caused by an inadequate visa application process and quite reasonably demand that penalties are waived and future travel is not prejudiced. This will involve further work for the already over-stretched French consular staff.
Some people might perceive this as scare mongering. However, the effects of chronic, excessive demand on customer operations are widely understood and there is a need to plan for such eventualities.
One method of dealing with this is to streamline the VLST application process for second homeowners who live in the UK.
We have sent our analysis and ideas to the French Consulate in London. The correspondence may be viewed here
VLST Form
The content of the form is extensive, it may be viewed here
The income requirements are not specified on the form which makes it difficult for people to determine whether their income is sufficient. This introduces uncertainty and could lead to appeals in borderline cases. At peak period this would result in further delays.