Risk Assessments

CDC/IDSA promote studies on "risk assessments" (guessing games with no basis in fact) designed to set the stage for the need of a Lyme vaccine. Listed below are some of the attempts to support past and future vaccines.

J Med Entomol. 2016 Jun 21. pii: tjw092. [Epub ahead of print]

Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases.

Eisen L1, Eisen RJ2.

Author information

  • 1Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO 80521 (evp4@cdc.gov; dyn2@cdc.gov) evp4@cdc.gov.
  • 2Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO 80521 (evp4@cdc.gov; dyn2@cdc.gov).


The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto.

The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods.

However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating.

In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases.

We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast,

2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi,

3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human-tick contact, and

4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites.

Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016.This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Borrelia burgdorferi; Ixodes scapularis; Lyme disease; blacklegged tick

PMID: 27330093 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]


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