Freddy Fefe Bangelesa

Central Equatorial Africa which is highly vulnerable to climate change, has experienced a long term drying trend according to several studies. Assessing impacts of climate change is very crucial in order to implement adequate adaptation strategies and early warning. This research will quantify the impact of future climate change on major crops produced in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Malaria prevalence. The analysis is based on gridded climate observational data and the three-dimensional hydrostatic regional climate model REMO. Both scenario with and without land use changes in addition to increasing greenhouse gas concetrations will be considered in this study. An empirical orthogonal functions analysis will be performed on precipitation and near-surface air temperature from the gridded climate observational data in order to regionalize the climate characteristics of the study area. Bayesian crop and malaria models will be developed and forced with climate predictors (principal components) until 2050.