Oscar Predictions 2024

By Parker Fields

The 96th Oscar nominations have been unveiled, revealing a mix of surprises and snubs. Notable highlights include Barbie's success at the box office, Anatomy of a Fall making waves internationally, and Killers of the Flower Moon marking a culmination of fifty years of effort. In the fiercely competitive landscape of 2023 film releases, specific titles emerged as dominant forces in the nomination race. Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer leads the pack with an impressive 13 nominations, closely trailed by Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things with 11. The upcoming Oscars will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, offering a hopeful prospect for redemption following the recent debacle at the Golden Globes. Doing David's annual tradition, I am now taking on the responsibility of re-watching all the Oscar-nominated films and presenting my predictions for the victors… 

Best Picture: Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan's first post-pandemic project, proved to be a flawless convergence of exceptional elements. The performances resonated with authenticity, the writing was both truthful and compelling, and Nolan's directing elevated the project to new heights. Beyond its inherent excellence, Oppenheimer stands out as a frontrunner due to a slew of accolades. Critically acclaimed, a cultural phenomenon, a top-three highest-grossing film of the year, and embraced by a wide audience—its success is a testament to its undeniable quality. As a three-hour biopic about scientists talking, it transcended expectations, making it a deserving magnum opus for Christopher Nolan that seems destined for well-deserved recognition at the awards.

Best Lead Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Piggybacking right off of Best Picture, the heart and soul of Oppenheimer lies within the performance of the titular character. Cillian Murphy has been working on Christopher Nolan sets for 20 years in small roles as supporting characters. Finally, Nolan saw an opportunity to give Murphy his chance to shine as a leading man, and he did not miss a beat. This award appeared to be a guarantee until Paul Giamatti began to pick up some steam for his performance in The Holdovers. Both won their respective Golden Globes, but Giamatti pulled out the Critics Choice Award win over Murphy. I predict that the Academy will recognize how much Oppenheimer depended on Murphy’s performance and grant him this award.

Best Lead Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

In 2020, Lily Gladstone shifted from acting to pursue a data analysis job until Martin Scorsese’s call changed the trajectory, casting her in his sprawling three hour western epic, Killers of the Flower Moon. In a cast alongside Hollywood heavyweights Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert DeNiro, Gladstone was the standout performance that stuck with audiences. Gladstone also made history by becoming the first ever Native American woman nominated for this award. However, the Oscar race in this category is intense, with Academy Award winner Emma Stone giving one of the best performances of her career in the critically adored film Poor Things. This potentially makes her a formidable contender as critics may opt for the reliability of an Oscar veteran. So while I would rather see Carey Mulligan from Maestro or Sandra Huller from Anatomy of A Fall take home the award.

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer

The comeback story of Robert Downey Jr. is one of the most profound and moving comeback stories. Known by many today as Iron Man, RDJ has been restrained for the majority of his career by the constraints of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. However, with his exit from Marvel, he was eager to show off his capability as an actor in a more serious and elevated role. He took on the role of Straus in the film, an antagonistic figure to Cillian Murphy's Oppenheimer. RDJ is able to showcase all the complexities surrounding the morality of his character so effectively, that you leave the film wondering why he hasn’t been taking on these kinds of roles for the past 20 years.

Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Out of all the major awards, this is the one that seems to be the most obvious. Crazier things have happened at the Oscars, but with the information we have, Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the surefire bet to win this award for her performance in The Holdovers. A Christmas film full of love and heart, she is able to bring depth to the more opposing side of the film, grief. 

Best Adapted Screenplay: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

In the fiercely contested category of Best Adapted Screenplay, my prediction leans heavily toward Christopher Nolan securing the coveted award for Oppenheimer. Nolan's screenplay for the film stands out as revolutionary, as it dares to venture into uncharted territory by employing a first-person perspective—an innovation that, in itself, marks a groundbreaking shift in mainstream cinema. Oppenheimer not only captivates with its narrative depth and authenticity but also challenges traditional storytelling norms. However, acknowledging the stiff competition, it's essential to recognize the accomplished writers in contention. The acclaimed Tony McNamara, renowned for his work on Poor Things, and the talented Greta Gerwig, crafting the script for Barbie, pose formidable challenges. Yet, Nolan's daring approach and narrative prowess might just position him ahead in this race, making Oppenheimer a standout

Best Original Screenplay: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

My conviction for Justine Triet's triumph in the Best Original Screenplay category for Anatomy of A Fall stems from the sheer ingenuity and transcontinental flair embedded in her script. Originating from France, Triet's screenplay is a testament to her storytelling prowess, offering a fresh perspective that resonates with both international acclaim and a Golden Globe win for Best Screenplay. What sets Anatomy of A Fall apart is Triet's creative brilliance—she seamlessly incorporates drawings and pictures into the screenplay, offering a visual narrative that enhances the storytelling experience. This visionary approach underscores her ability to push the boundaries of conventional screenplay writing. Despite formidable competition, notably from David Hemingson for The Holdovers, Triet's exceptional and multi-dimensional storytelling make this a strong contender for the award.

Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Finally! After a 20 year career of creating some of the most loved and critically acclaimed films, Christopher Nolan is due for an Oscar. Luckily, he is the frontrunner for his latest film, Oppenheimer. This seems to be the year of Oppenheimer so it feels right that Nolan breaks his Oscar curse with what many are calling his magnum opus. 

Best Original Song: “What Was I Made For?” Billie Eilish, Barbie

Billie Eilish isn’t a veteran at the Oscars by any means, taking home the award in 2022 for No Time To Die. However, at the recent Grammy Awards, Eilish took home the coveted Song of the Year award for What Was I Made For? So surely if this was recognized by the Recording Academy as the song of the year, the Oscars would give it the recognition for Best Original Song. The core of Barbie is the relationships shared between mothers and daughters, and this being the emotional climax of the film brought tears to the eyes of everyone.  The competition in this category also comes from the Barbie movie “I’m Just Ken,” the fun upbeat, and energetic dance number sung by Ryan Gosling. Gosling also has taken home this award for City of Stars in La La Land.

Best International Feature: The Zone of Interest

The greatest mistake of this year's Oscar submissions may have been from France. As opposed to the universally adored Anatomy of A Fall, France submitted The Taste of Things (which didn’t even get a nomination in the category). While the race would have been close, with Anatomy of A Fall out of the category, The Zone of Interest is the clear front runner. Getting nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, and Adapted Screenplay, The Zone of Interest seems to be a film that critics loved. This makes sense since it checks all the Oscar boxes, being set during World War 2 and dealing with the cruel and horrific event of the holocaust.

Best Original Score: Oppenheimer

Best Animated Feature Film: Spider-man: Across The Spider-Verse

Best Cinematography: Poor Things

Best Documentary Feature Film: 20 Days In Marpole

Best Documentary Short Feature: The ABCs of Book Banning

Best Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Best Animated Short Film: Letter To A Pig

Best Film Editing: Oppenheimer

Best Sound: Oppenheimer

Best Production Design: Poor Things

Best Visual Effects: Godzilla: Minus One

Best Costume Design: Barbie

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Poor Things