2015年度
日時: 2015年5月16日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 5階 講義室C
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 奴田原健悟 氏 (専修大学)
題目: Asset price targeting government spending and equilibrium indeterminacy in a sticky-price economy
概要: This study describes the asset price fluctuation is a target of fiscal policy inJapan, and investigates aggregate implications of this fiscal policy theoretically. In our sticky-price model, the monetary authority follows a Taylor rule and the fiscal authority follows a rule that the target of government spending is asset price and responds negatively to the asset price fluctuations. It is shown that government spending that targets asset prices is a source of equilibrium indeterminacy.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 川田恵介 氏 (広島大学)
題目: Nonprofit/for-profit facility and difference of wage distribution: Evidence from the Japanese elderly care industry
概要: This paper provides new estimation results for the impacts of operator types, nonprofit or for-profit, on the earnings distribution by using an employee-employer matched data in the Japanese elderly care sector. The OLS and quantile regression results show even if workers' and operators' basic characteristics are controlled, we can observe a nonprofit premium on average and in lower quantile. However, in higher quantile, we observe a negative premium (penalty) of nonprofit operators. Additionally, average and quantile decomposition results represent that on average and in each quantile, a large part of a nonprofit premium can be explained by the difference of observable characteristics, especially license acquisition rate and worker's tenure. The quantile decomposition results additionally show that a larger part of earnings gap in high quantile can be explained by the difference of tenure than in lower quantile.
日時: 2015年6月6日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 中林純 氏 (東北大学)
題目: Detecting Large-Scale Collusion in Procurement Auctions
概要: This paper documents evidence of widespread collusion among construction firms using a novel dataset covering most of the construction projects procured by the Japanese national government from 2003 to 2006. By examining rebids that occur for auctions when all (initial) bids fail to meet the reserve price, we identify collusion using ideas similar to regression discontinuity. We identify about 1,000 firms whose conduct is inconsistent with competitive behavior. These bidders were awarded about 7,600 projects, or close to one fifth of the total number of construction projects in our sample. The value of these projects totals about $8.6 billion.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 赤井伸郎 氏 (大阪大学)
題目: 地方財政健全化とガバナンスの経済分析
概要: 夕張市の破綻をきっかけに、地方の財政をガバナンスする仕組みとして、地方財政健全化法が導入された。2009年4月に本格施行されて以来、多く の自治体において健全化の取組が進んでいる。本発表では、これらの健全化法における様々な指標が、自治体の財政健全化行動にどのような影響を与え たのかを、以下の査読論文をベースに、多面的に検証し、今後のあり方を議論する。
「臨時財政対策債の構造と膨張の実態－基準財政需要算入額と積立・償還額から見た自治体行動の実証分析－」(2013)『日本地方財 政研究叢書第20号』勁草書房, pp. 65-83.
「財政健全化策としての繰上償還の要因に関する実証分析―将来負担比率のガバナンス効果に着目して」(2015)『日本地方財政研究 叢書第22号』勁草書房, pp. 157-182.
「土地開発公社の清算に係る第3セクター等改革推進債発行に関する実証分析―将来負担比率のガバナンス効果は働いているのか?－」 (2015)『日本財政学会叢書『財政研究』』有斐閣, Forthcoming.
日時: 2015年7月11日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4A
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 中島賢太郎 氏 (東北大学)
題目: Localization of Knowledge-creating Establishments
概要: This study investigates the localization of establishment-level knowledge creation using data from a Japanese patent database. Using distance-based methods, we obtain the following results. First, Japanese patent-creating establishments are significantly localized at the 5% level, with a localization range of approximately 80 km. Second, localization is observed for all patent technology classes, and the extent of localization has a positive relationship with the level of technology measured by R&D investment. Finally, the extent of localization is stronger for productive establishments that are more productive in terms of both the number of patents and the number of citations received, i.e., quantitatively and qualitatively. These results indicate that geographical proximity is important for knowledge spillover, particularly for knowledge-demanding establishments.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 馬奈木俊介 氏 (九州大学)
題目: Natural Disaster in Japan: Economy, Energy and Environment
概要: In this article we explore the recovery policies after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami comprehensively. By doing so, we assess how the disaster-affected cities' possession of their accommodation promotes the effectiveness of the policies. The Japanese National Police Agency reported that the incident caused 15,883 of deaths, 6,143 of casualties, and 2,681 of musings. The report also confirmed physical damage of 129,225 totally collapsed, and 269,454 half-collapsed buildings. Direct economic damage is about 5-7% of GDP. Besides these damages, the incident in Tohoku has significantly different aspect than other disasters, which is the major explosion of Fukushima nuclear power plant associated with the earthquake and tsunami. The leakage and contamination of radioactive have been affecting 12 cities and more than 8,8000 residents in Fukushima prefecture. The Tokyo Electric Power Company announced that they have a clear schedule to put the crisis under control and to deccomish the nuclear reactor, and that it takes 40 years to complete it. After the incident, the central government of Japan established Reconstruction Agency to replace Reconstruction Headquarters as a response to the incident created on June 24, 2011 and to support the local governments' recovery plans. The government prepared 25 million yen for the 5 years of the incident. The budget is allocated to four major projects of cleaning up the debris, reconstructing the damaged infrastructure, managing the nuclear related issues, and financial support for local businesses and employment creation in the disaster area. In the current two years, interestingly, there have been differences among the disaster areas in the magnitude of successfulness in recovery plans although some of them have experienced the same levels of devastation. The cities located in the southern area have recovered relatively faster than the one in the northern area. One of the goals of the recovery plans is to achieve fast and sustainable recovery of the disaster area. We focus on a source of difference in the magnitudes of recovery considering nuclear plant nearby areas (particularly energy and environmental challenges in addition to economic impacts), and propose the necessity for the local cities to have their potential accommodation as a part of preparing for the smooth recovery.
日時: 2015年10月3日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 直井道生氏 (慶應義塾大学)
題目: Income Risk and Mortgage Choice among Japanese Households (with Yoko Moriizumi and Norifumi Yukutake)
概要: This paper empirically examines the relationship between income risk and mortgage instrument choice among Japanese households. Since theoretical predictions about the impact of income risks on mortgage choice are mixed, it is important to investigate empirically whether or not risky households borrow ARM loans. In order to answer this question, we construct several measures of income variability and unemployment risk that capture the income risk of the specific household. Our empirical result suggests that these income risk measures are in general negatively associated with the choice of fixed-rate mortgage contract, indicating that risky borrowers are more likely to choose adjustable-rate mortgages. Furthermore, we also find that the impact of income risk on the mortgage choice depends critically on the individual risk preferences. While there is significantly negative impact of income variability and unemployment risk on the mortgage choice for the risk averse borrowers, no systematic relationship can be found for borrowers with low risk aversion.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 宇南山卓氏 (一橋大学)
題目: 日本における裕福なその日暮らし
概要: 十分な資産を保有しながら、手元流動性が不足するために毎期の所得を使い切る「その日暮らし」をする世帯が存在することが指摘されている。本研究では、日本のデータを用いて「裕福なその日暮らし」のシェアを計測した。さらに、それらの世帯が所得の受け取りに対してどのように反応するかを、定額給付金や公的年金の受給などを用いて計測した。
日時: 2015年10月31日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 長谷川誠 氏 (政策研究大学院大学)
題目: The Effect of Moving to a Territorial Tax System on Profit Repatriation: Evidence from Japan (with Kozo Kiyota)
概要: In an increasingly globalized world, the design of international tax systems in terms of taxation on foreign corporate incomes has received much attention from policymakers and economists alike. In the past, Japan's worldwide tax system taxed foreign source income upon repatriation. However, to stimulate dividend repatriations from Japanese-owned foreign affiliates, Japan introduced a foreign dividend exemption in 2009 that exempts dividends remitted by Japanese-owned foreign affiliates to their parent firms from home taxation. This paper examines the effect of this dividend exemption on profit repatriations by Japanese multinationals. We find that the response of Japanese-owned affiliates to the dividend exemption was heterogeneous. More particularly, foreign affiliates with a large stock of retained earnings were generally more responsive to the reform and significantly increased dividend payments to their parent firms in response to the enactment of the dividend exemption system. Dividend payments by these affiliates also became more sensitive to withholding tax rates on dividends levied by host countries under the new exemption system.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 椋寛 氏 (学習院大学)
題目: Does preferential trade liberalization promote antidumping actions against nonmembers?
概要: In a three-country oligopoly model, this paper analyzes two countries' decisions concerning antidumping (AD) action against each other and the relationship between those decisions and the countries' RTAs with the third-country. An RTA intensifies product-market competition in the domestic market and lowers product prices. This effect widens the dumping margin of the foreign firm and narrows the dumping margin of the domestic firm. If the government is more concerned with domestic firm profit in its AD decision, the RTA may invoke the member's AD action against the nonmember. If the governments attach a sufficiently high value on social welfare, however, the RTA may promote the nonmember's AD action against the member. If the governments' weight on the domestic firm's profit is neither high nor low, an RTA may block the AD actions of both countries. If both countries have RTAs with the third country, both countries become less willing to use AD action.
日時: 2016年1月30日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 菊地雄太 氏 (横浜国立大学)
題目: Evaluating Professor Value-added: Evidence from Professor and Student Matching in Physics
概要: This paper estimates professor's value-added to postgraduate student's research achievement growth using a unique panel data on matching pairs of advisor-advisee at a world's leading physics program. To address an identification problem related to endogenous selection of advisors and advisees, we use professor's turnover and estimate a semi-parametric lower bound of the variance of advisor's quality affecting advisee's research performance. We find that one standard deviation increase in professor's quality results in the increase of 0.43 standard deviation in doctorate student's research achievement gain, and increases the numbers of student's first-authored papers published in top journals by 0.60 at the doctoral level.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 伊藤萬里 氏 (専修大学)
題目: Trade Policy Preferences and Cross-Regional Differences: Evidence from Individual-Level Data of Japan
概要: This study examines the determinants of individuals' preferences for trade policies, using micro data of ten thousand individuals selected from Japan's general population. In particular, we focus on the role of regional factors that influence trade policy preferences, considering the fact that there is a significant difference in preferences among regions. The results of the binary choice model reveal that local characteristics affect people's views on trade policy even after controlling for labor market and non-economic attributes. Specifically, people residing in a region with a high share of agricultural workers are likely to support import restrictions even if they do not engage in agriculture, which is the most protected sector in Japan. Moreover, there is a strong correlation between the probability of supporting the protectionist trade policy and the share of local agricultural workers for people not considering migration, suggesting that inter-regional immobility of workers affects their trade policy preferences.
日時: 2016年2月27日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 高橋孝明 氏 (東京大学)
題目: A tale of two cities: Urban spatial structure and mode of transportation
概要: This paper discusses the interdependence of the spatial structure of a city and the transport mode used there to obtain two types of equilibria. One is the “auto city equilibrium” at which workers,distributed over a city thinly, use an automobile for their commutes. The other is the “rapid transit city equilibrium” at which rapid transit services are provided for the commutes of workers,who are distributed densely. We have derived and characterized the conditions for each type of equilibrium. Furthermore, the possibility of multiple equilibria has been studied.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 楡井誠 氏 (財務省総合政策研究所)
題目: Beauty Contests and Fat Tails in Financial Markets
概要: This study seeks to explain the emergence of fat-tailed distributions of trading volumes and asset returns in financial markets. We use a rational expectations form of the herding model. In the model, traders infer other traders' private signals regarding the value of an asset by observing their aggregate buying actions. The rational expectations equilibrium outcome entails an upward sloping demand curve. This is because the information contained in others' signals is more encouraging than is reflected in the incremental price. That is, there are strategic complementarities in informed traders' buying actions. In this environment, we show that equilibrium trading volumes and asset returns follow fat-tailed distributions without making any parametric assumptions on private signals. Specifically, we demonstrate that the trading volume follows a power-law distribution when the number of traders is large and the signal is noisy. Furthermore, we provide simulation results to show that our model successfully reproduces the observed distributions of daily stock returns.