2009年度
日時: 2009年4月18日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 川口大司氏 (一橋大学)
題目: Labor Market Responses to Legal Work Hour Reduction: Evidence from Japan (with Hisahiro Naito and Izumi Yokoyama)
概要: Japan's labor standard law defines weekly legal work hours, and employers must pay a 25-percent wage premium for overtime. The number of legal work hours was 48 in 1987 and gradually declined to 40 by 1997. During the corresponding period, the average weekly hours of work dropped from 45 to 41, suggesting the causal effect of legal regulation on the actual hours of work. Exploiting the different timing of the regulation change by industry and establishment size, this paper estimates the causal impact of legal work hour reduction on labor market outcomes. The analysis results indicate that a one-hour reduction of legal work hours led to a reduction of 0.14 actual hours worked, but it was not accompanied by a reduction in monthly cash earnings. The recruitment of new school graduates was suppressed in response to an increase in the hourly wage rate.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 赤井伸郎氏 (大阪大学)
題目:道州制に向けた効率的行政区域と事務配分のあり方に関する実証的分析 ―行政区域再編のコスト削減効果の検証－
概要: 本稿では、近年の、行政区域や事務の配分の再編における議論を受けて、そのあ り方を、行政コストの変化額から分析した。 既存研究では、事務ごとに、どのレベルの行政区域で運営を行うことが、費用効 率性の面から望ましいのかに関しての分析は行われていなかったことを受け、本 稿では以下の分析を行った。 まず、事務ごとに、コスト構造を人口や面積、地域要因などから推定し、その結 果を元に、事務ごとに、市町村から都道府県、都道府県から市町村、都道府県か ら道州、市町村から道州への事務を移譲した場合にコストがどのように変化する のかを考察した。
その結果、いくつかの事務で市町村から都道府県への事務移譲、都道府県から道 州への移譲が費用効率性の面において効果的であることが分かった。その一方 で、都道府県から市町村への事務移譲は、コストの面から見る限り、かなり限定 的であることが分かった。また、これらの結果は、政令指定都市を推定に含める のかによって影響を受けるが、その効果も少ない。 本稿の分析は、検証の厳密性の観点からは今後改善する余地はあるものの、道州 制や広域行政における効果を明示的にあらわしたという点において、今後の議論 に役立つ情報提供の価値があると思われる。
日時: 2009年5月23日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 星野匡郎氏 (東京工業大学)
題目: An Analysis of the Implementation of the District Planning System: Application of Spatial Discrete Choice Models
概要: In this presentation, I first briefly provide an introduction to spatial econometrics and spatial discrete choice analysis. Then, I present my paper entiltled "GMM Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Probit Models: An Analysis of the Implementation of the District Planning System in Japan". The abstract of this paper is as follows: The objective of this paper is twofold. First, on the theoretical level, we propose a feasible generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for spatial binary probit models containing both a spatial lag latent dependent variable and spatial autoregressive disturbances. Under empirically reasonable conditions, the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We numerically assess the finite sample properties of our estimator using Monte Carlo experiments, and confirm the validity of the estimator. Second on the empirical level, we apply our proposed GMM estimator to actual data for urban planning policies in Japan. In particular, this study focuses on the implementation of the District Planning System in Yokohama city, the capital city of Kanagawa prefecture. The District Planning System is a detailed land use management system introduced voluntarily by the local authorities according to the nature of each district and reflecting the demands of the residents for the local environment. Our results indicate the existence of positive spatial autocorrelations in the utilization of the system in terms of both the dependent variable and the omitted variables. This implies that the inhabitants' preferences for the local environment are spatially autocorrelated, and this is likely because of the interactions between the people in contiguous neighbourhoods and unobservable regional common factors.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 中林真幸氏 (東京大学)
題目: Imposed efficiency of the Treaty Port: Japanese industrialization and western imperialist institutions
概要: Modern economic growth has been encouraged by the expansion of impersonal market trades under governance mechanism with third party enforcement. Third party governance requires the standardization of trade practices, the feasibility of which depends on the features of the goods being traded. While the trade of homogeneous goods such as raw materials is relatively easy to standardize, that of the heterogenous goods is not always easy. Subsequently, a successful economy is one that has achieved a well-coordinated diffusion of impersonal trades from more standardized markets to less standardized ones. In late nineteenth century Japan, which saw the start of the international free trade, treaty port governed by the western consuls worked as a pivot of coordinated modernization of domestic markets.
日時: 2009年6月27日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 林正義氏 (一橋大学)
題目: The Effects of Central Grants on Local Social Policy in a Unitary System: a Case of Public Assistance in Japan
概要: In Japan it is traditionally claimed that an increase in central subsidies makes local governments “excessively lenient” in granting eligibility for social assistance. On the other hand, it is arguable that this is not actually the case because, due to the very fact that the country is unitary, localities are tightly controlled by the central government. This study examines the traditional claim that more central grants induce localities to provide more public assistance. However, it is difficult to identify such an effect since the matching rates are often nationally identical: the identical rates leave no cross sectional variations and their changes are likely to be marred with aggregate shocks. This study circumvents this identification problem by exploiting two institutional aspects of the system of intergovernmental transfers in Japan. Our results show no support for the traditional claim. In many cases, the effects of central grants on public assistance are not statistically significant. In cases where the effects are statistically significant, their values are either sensitive to specifications, or are evident with signs opposite to what the traditional claim implies.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 中嶋亮氏 (筑波大学)
題目: The Effect of Collaboration Network on Inventors' Job Match, Productivity and Tenure. (Joint work with Nobuyuki Hanaki and Ryuichi Tamura)
概要: It has been argued in the economic literature that job search through informal job networks improves the employer―employee match quality, especially in high wage sectors. This paper argues that inventors' research collaboration networks reduce the uncertainty of firms about the match qualities of inventors prior to hiring. We estimate the effect of inventors' collaboration networks on their productivity and mobility using the U.S. patent application database. It is found that network-recruited inventors are more productive and have longer tenure than publicly recruited inventors. The evidence from fixed-effect regressions shows that the higher productivity and longer tenure of network-recruited inventors are not solely attributable to their unobserved ability. These results are consistent with the job match hypothesis between inventors and firms through their collaboration networks.
日時: 2009年7月11日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 石黒真吾氏 (大阪大学)
題目: Organizational Dynamics
16:10-18:00
講演者: 大久保敏弘氏 (神戸大学)
題目: Productivity distribution, firm heterogeneity, and agglomeration: evidence from firm-level data
日時: 2009年9月7日(月)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 奴田原健悟 氏 (専修大学)
題目: Nominal Rigidities, News-Driven Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy (with Keiichiro Kobayashi)
概要: A news-driven business cycle is a positive comovement in consumption, labor, investment, and output caused by positive news about the future. Standard real business cycle models do not generate it. In this paper, we find that a used market friction - i.e., sticky prices - can be a source of news-driven business cycles from news about future technology growth, technology level, and expansionary monetary policy shocks. The key mechanism is the countercyclical movements of markups through nominal rigidities.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 瀧井克也 氏 (大阪大学)
題目: Industry Choice and the Returns to Education (with Ryuichi Tanaka)
概要: This paper examines the relationship between the return to college and the industry choice of college graduates. We construct a version of the Roy's model, and estimate the probability of industry choice and the returns to college using the Japanese Employment Status Survey from 1982 to 2002. We find that, after correcting the self-selection biases, the returns to college are small in a financial sector and a government sector, although college graduates are more likely to find their jobs in these sectors than high school graduates. We investigate potential causes of this seemingly inefficient allocation of workers across industries.
日時: 2009年9月26日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 鶴田大輔 氏 (政策研究大学院大学)
題目: How Do Small Businesses Mitigate the Cost of Financial Distress?
概要: Financial distressed firms cannot obtain enough credit because the possibility of bankruptcy is high. Therefore, financially distressed firms lose potential profits even when they have profitable investment opportunities, which are called indirect cost of financial distress. However, some small businesses in Japan during the late 1990's are not poor-performing and earn enough profit despite they are in financial distress. Using small business data in Japan, we investigate how these small businesses mitigate the indirect cost of financial distress. First, banks and trade partners do not offer sufficient credit for financially distressed small businesses even if they have growth opportunities. This result is consistent with the previous studies about the indirect cost of financial distress. Second, financially distressed small businesses convert more note receivables into cash by selling them to financial institutions, and use cash holdings more to finance their growth opportunities. These imply that small businesses have several ways to mitigate the indirect cost of financial distress.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 明城聡 氏 (科学技術政策研究所)
題目: Assessing the Consequences of a Horizontal Merger and its Remedies in a Dynamic Environment
概要: T.B.A. This paper estimates a dynamic oligopoly model to assess the economic consequences of a horizontal merger that took place in 1970 to create the second largest global producer of steel. This paper solves a Markov perfect Nash equilibrium for the model and simulates the welfare effects of the horizontal merger. Estimates reveal that the merger enhanced the production efficiency of the merging party by a magnitude of 4.1%, while the exercise of market power was restrained primarily by the presence of fringe competitors. The merger altered the nature of strategic interaction in investment behavior among firms. Our simulation result also indicates that structural remedies endorsed by the competition authority failed to promote competition.
日時: 2009年11月28日(土)
場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B
地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf
14:00-15:50
講演者: 近藤絢子 氏 (大阪大学)
題目: Gender Specific Labor Market Conditions and Family Formation
概要: Slack labor market conditions for women relative to men increase marriage rates for young women in the United States. This paper examines the long-term consequences of such marriages using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. I find that the marriages induced by relatively poor economic conditions for women reflect shifts in the timing of marriage among young women who would eventually marry anyway. Labor market conditions at age 18-20 do not affect the fraction of women who will marry by age 30. Further, labor market conditions at marriage are uncorrelated with the probability of divorce or with spouses' characteristics, and marrying young in response to labor market shocks does not change the number of children though it shifts the timing of first birth earlier. These findings suggest that temporary shocks to labor market conditions induce only inter-temporal adjustment of marriage timing and do not affect the reservation match quality or the total fertility rate.
16:10-18:00
講演者: 工藤教孝 氏 (北海道大学)
題目: Beauty Contests and Asset Prices under Asymmetric Information
概要: This paper studies a dynamic Gaussian financial market model where the traders form higher order expectations about the fundamental value of a single risky asset. Rational uninformed traders are introduced into an otherwise standard differential information economy to investigate the impact of asymmetric information. In a two-period economy, there is a unique linear equilibrium; beauty contests under asymmetric information do not introduce excess volatility driven by self-fulfilling multiple equilibria. The price's reliance on the public beliefs reduces significantly under asymmetric information. When the fraction of uninformed traders is sufficiently large, price volatility increases over time even though the information content of the price increases over time.