Pedro Perfecto
Atlanta Ace Fans 15 in UL's Seventh Perfect Game
Toppers Magical Season Keeps Coming Up Roses
ATLANTA (July 26) — The Atlanta Hilltoppers march toward immortality continued today as 22-year-old ace authored the UL's seventh perfect game, and the first with 15 strikeouts, in what was immediately characterized as the single best pitching performance in UL history. Pedro came into the game with a 12-3 record and 1.98 ERA. He was roughed up for three runs in Seattle—a poor outing by his standards—on July 20, but had lost just once in his last 15 starts.
"I don't know what to say," he said in a postgame press conference. "I didn't do anything different in this game. Really. I just pitched the ball and everyone did what they had to do and somewhere along the way, fate stepped in and took control. I was very aware I was working on a perfect game from the sixth inning on," he said. "But it didn't faze me because I really didn't expect to pitch one. I was worrying about winning, not trying for a perfect game."
Brooklyn's Lew Burdette threw the UL's first perfect game on June 12, 1961. San Francisco's Dick Bosman pitched the second in 1969. Then for 15 years, the feat was not repeated, until Washington's Frank Viola was perfect on May 2, 1984. Since then, there have been four perfect games in the last decade, the last by Havana's Mark Langston in 1990. Jose Rijo had the previous record for most strikeouts in a perfect game, with 14 in 1987.
Pedro is on pace for an historic season: 333 strikeouts and a 1.88 ERA. There have been only 11 sub-2.00 ERAs in league history. Bill Singer set the single-season record with a 1.67 ERA in 1970 with Chicago. Rich Gossage has the record for most strikeouts in a sub-2.00 ERA season, with 237 in 1983.
Most Strikeouts in a Sub-2.00 ERA Season
Year Pitcher Team ERA K
1983 Rich Gossage CLE 1.xx 237
1965 Johnny Podres CLE 1.xx 232
1967 Johnny Podres CLE 1.xx 226
1968 Bob Moose SF 1.xx 219
1959 Gene Conley BRO 1.xx 218
1970 Bill Singer CHI 1.xx 206
Atlanta has allowed just 307 runs in 109 games, 42 fewer than the next best team, or 2.82 runs per game. They are on pace to break the UL record of 2.92 runs allowed per game by the 1963 Brooklyn Superbas. That ballclub famously won 115 games and scored 5.2 runs per game for an unfathomable run differential of 2.3 runs per game. The '94 Toppers are averaging 4.8 runs per game, for a 2.0 run differential, which could be as good as the second best in UL history.
The Toppers cooled off in late July, winning just 7 of 12 and dipping below .700 with a 11-3 loss to Boston on July 31. The club suffered another loss that day, losing 3B Wade Boggs for the season with a ruptured ligament. Boggs was batting .346 with a .405 OBP in his first year with Atlanta, and is five points behind Detroit's Dave Nilsson for the batting lead. His 474 plate appearances as of the injury falls 22 short of the minimum required for the batting title.
At their current .697 clip, the Red Blogs would finish with 112 wins, second only to those '63 Superbas. The loss of Boggs is a worrying development, as lack of offense was the culprit in their recent losses. The Toppers were shut out by Chicago in back-to-back contests July 18-19 and managed just one run in a loss at St. Louis five days later. Another concern is Atlanta's less-than-specatular record against certain playoff-level teams. They are 4-4 against St. Louis, 3-3 vs. Detroit and Keystone, and 2-4 vs. Brooklyn. Meanwhile, they are a combined 42-4 against seven teams (CLE, DET, FLO, HAV, MON, SF, WAS). Of these seven, only Detroit currently resides in the Hex. Take away those seven opponents and the Toppers record is a pedestrian 32-29.
East Race Could Be Best in Years
While Atlanta extended its West Division lead to 14 games with a 17-7 July, the East Division tightened up, with five teams within four games of division leaders Boston. The Boston Federals were 19-6 and overtook both Brooklyn and Detroit for first in the division. The Toronto Polar Bears were the hottest teams in the league in July, going 20-5 to trim their gap from seven to three games. And the Keystone Starlings were 18-7 to likewise close the gap on second place Brooklyn and third place Detroit.
Of the five contenders, Brooklyn has the best pitching, Toronto the best offense, and Detroit the best balance as the only team in the division in the top four in both runs and runs allowed.
Breakouts and Breakdowns
An Analysis Using Advanced Metrics
Let's take a look at this year's biggest breakouts and busts, using OPS+. [For the uninitiated, OPS+ take On-Base Plus Slugging, adjusts for park factors, and normalizes it with 100 being league average. A player with an OPS+ of 120 is performing 20 percent better than league average.]
Atlanta's Jose Valentin is arguably having the biggest breakout year. The 24-year-old , third-year shorstop has increased his OPS+ from 74 to 165, a whopping 91 point increase. He ranks 3rd behind only Barry Bonds and Dave Nilsson in OPS+.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Brooklyn 2B Jerry Browne is having the biggest bust season. His 57 OPS+ ranks 110th out of 112 qualified batters and is a 59 point drop from last year's 116.
Breakouts
1994 1993
Player Team Age OPS+ OPS+ Diff
Jose Valentin ATL 24 165 74 +91
Carlos Baerga KEY 25 127 75 +52
Raul Mondesi TOR 23 122 70 +52
John Kruk STL 32 117 75 +42
Breakdowns
1994 1993
Player Team Age OPS+ OPS+ Diff
Jerry Browne BRO 27 57 116 -59
Dion James BRO 31 111 167 -56
Rickey Henderson SEA 34 77 114 -37
Alan Trammell CHI 35 80 112 -32
On the pitching side, we will use FIP-. For the uninitiated, FIP- starts with Fielding-Independent Pitching—an ERA analogue based only on walks, strikeouts, and home runs—adjusts for park effects, and normalizes with 100 being league average and below 100 being better. Pedro Martinez' FIP- of 57 leads the league.
Detroit has a breakout and breakdown in its rotation. Scott Sanders' 50-point improvement gives him arguably the biggest breakout season with an 81 FIP-, while Alex Fernandez' FIP- has regressed by 25 points to over 100. The biggest bust pitcher so far this year in FIP- terms in Chicago's Donovan Osborne, who regressed 39 points to 123.
Breakouts
1994 1993
Player Team Age FIP- FIP- Diff
Scott Sanders DET 25 81 131 -50
Kirk Rueter KEY 23 85 106 -21
Darryl Kile ATL 25 81 97 -16
Breakdowns
1994 1993
Player Team Age FIP- FIP- Diff
Donovan Osborne CHI 25 123 84 +39
Alex Fernandez DET 24 109 84 +25
Mark Langston HAV 33 116 92 +24
Kevin Tapani WAS 29 135 112 +23
Prospect Watch
The midseason Top Prospect rankings came out on July 1, with some interesting movement. Cleveland's Alex Rodriguez kept his #1 ranking, Florida's Chipper Jones moved up two spots to #2, and Washington C Mike Lieberthal climbed four spots to #3. Montreal SP Chan-Ho Park climbed six spots to #4 and Toronto's Rusty Greer surged nine spots to #5.
Further down the list, Portland's Rico Brogna lead the IL with 26 home runs and surged from #85 to #41 on the prospect list. Another Seattle prospect, Paul Shuey, has a 0.47 ERA in 19 innings and jumped from #35 to #13.
Montreal was scored with the best farm system, led by SP Chan-Ho Park, LF Cliff Floyd (recently acquired from Cleveland in the Larry Walker trade), SP Jose Mercedes, and RP Joey Eischen (acquired from Los Angeles).
West W L GB Last R RA
Atlanta 76 33 - 17-7 1 1
St. Louis 62 47 14 15-10 4 6
Los Angeles 60 49 16 14-11 11 4
Florida 57 52 19 13-12 9 7
Havana 53 54 22 7-17 10 12
Chicago 52 57 24 11-14 12 3
San Francisco 41 68 35 10-15 13 16
Denver 39 69 36½ 9-16 17 13
Seattle 39 70 37 8-17 14 15
East W L GB Last R RA
Boston 68 41 - 19-6 6 8
Brooklyn 67 42 1 15-10 7 2
Detroit 66 43 2 14-11 3 4
Toronto 65 44 3 20-5 2 9
Keystone 64 45 4 18-7 5 10
Montreal 46 63 22 5-20 8 17
Washington 44 65 24 9-16 15 14
Cleveland 42 67 26 12-13 16 11
Manhattan 38 70 29½ 8-16 17 18
Batting Average
Dave Nilsson DET .351
Wade Boggs ATL .346
+Carlos Baerga KEY .342
Tony Gwynn ATL .337
Ken Griffey Jr BRO .326
+Bip Roberts MON .320
Matt Williams BRO .317
Larry Walker CLE .317
Juan Gonzalez TOR .316
Shane Mack HAV .314
RBIs
Ryan Klesko DET 95
Barry Bonds STL 93
Tim Salmon KEY 89
Ken Griffey Jr BRO 87
Bret Boone ATL 77
Eric Karros TOR 77
+Raffy Palmeiro STL 77
+Jim Thome BOS 77
Mike Piazza BOS 75
Howard Johnson HAV 74
Frank Thomas LA 74
Home Runs
Eric Karros TOR 36
Barry Bonds STL 33
Ryan Klesko DET 32
Sammy Sosa BOS 32
Tim Salmon KEY 31
+Mickey Tettleton TOR 30
Ken Griffey Jr BRO 29
+Jim Thome BOS 27
+Raul Mondesi TOR 26
4 tied with 25
bWAR
Ken Griffey Jr BRO 7.2
Barry Bonds STL 6.6
Dave Nilsson DET 6.5
Sammy Sosa BOS 6.3
+Jose Valentin ATL 6.2
Wade Boggs ATL 5.7
Rich Gedman STL 5.6
Andy Van Slyke LA 5.5
+Tim Salmon KEY 5.3
Tony Phillips STL 5.3
Infield Zone Rating
+Cal Ripken Jr STL 12.9
Alan Trammell CHI 9.9
Robin Yount BRO 8.7
John Valentin BOS 6.4
+Jay Bell LA 6.1
Earned Run Average
Pedro Martinez ATL 1.87
Mike Mussina FLO 2.24
Floyd Youmans LA 2.41
Ramon Martinez BRO 2.46
Steve Avery BRO 2.48
Darryl Kile ATL 2.52
+T. Mulholland CHI 2.57
+S. Bankhead KEY 2.58
+Chris Nabholz DET 2.63
+Jaime Navarro CLE 2.63
Strikeouts
Pedro Martinez ATL 227
Floyd Youmans LA 190
F. Valenzuela ATL 182
Mike Mussina FLO 181
Scott Sanders DET 162
Darryl Kile ATL 161
Dwight Gooden TOR 160
Jon Lieber BOS 159
Pat Hentgen MAN 155
+Steve Cooke CHI 152
Outfield Zone Rating
Eric Davis CHI 14.1
Ken Griffey Jr BRO 8.7
Shane Mack HAV 8.5
Stan Javier LA 7.4
+Ivan Calderon FLO 6.0
Wins
Mike Mussina FLO 16
+Kirk Rueter KEY 14
Joe Magrane STL 13
+Pedro Martinez ATL 13
Brian Anderson BOS 12
Darryl Kile ATL 12
+F. Valenzuela ATL 12
Ed Whitson ATL 12
8 tied with 11
pWAR
Pedro Martinez ATL 6.3
Mike Mussina FLO 4.6
Dwight Gooden TOR 4.6
+Floyd Youmans LA 4.4
Jon Lieber BOS 4.1
Fern Valenzuela ATL 4.1
Bret Saberhagen BOS 4.0
Darryl Kile ATL 3.9
Butch Henry KEY 3.6
+Tom Glavine WAS 3.5
Batter of the Month
APR Raffy Palmeiro STL
MAY Tim Salmon KEY
JUN Ken Griffey Jr BRO
JUL Barry Bonds STL
AUG
SEP
Pitcher of the Month
APR Mike Mussina FLO
MAY Mike Mussina FLO
JUN Pat Hentgen BOS
JUL Pedro Martinez ATL
AUG
SEP
Rookie of the Month
APR Aaron Sele KEY
MAY Jon Lieber BOS
JUN Jim Edmonds CLE
JUL Salomon Torres CLE
AUG
SEP
Player of the Week
4/11 Kal Daniels BOS
4/18 Tim Salmon KEY
4/25 Shane Mack HAV
5/2 Jeff Bagwell KEY
5/9 Greg Colbrunn ATL
5/16 Ken Griffey Jr BRO
5/23 Andy Van Slyke LA
5/30 Matt Williams BRO
6/6 Ron Karkovice LA
6/13 Matt Williams BRO
6/20 Ken Griffey Jr BRO
6/27 Barry Bonds STL
7/4 Ken Caminiti MAN
7/11 Frank Thomas LA
7/18 Ron Gant TOR
7/25 Mike Piazza BOS
May 14 - HAV Lenny Dykstra 500 stolen bases (#20 all-time)
May 16 - ATL Tony Gwynn 500 stolen bases (#21 all-time)
May 18 - LA Andy Van Slyke 700 stolen bases (#5 all-time)
May 25 - TOR Dwight Gooden 2,500 strikeouts (#22 all-time)
June 5 - BOS Mike Scott 2,000 strikeouts (#42 all-time)
June 6 - ATL Wade Boggs 1,000 runs (#57 all-time)
June 7 - SEA Alvin Davis 1,000 RBIs (#48 all-time)
July 1 - DEN Ozzie Smith 1,000 runs (#58 -all-time)
July 7 - HAV Lenny Dykstra 1,000 runs (#59 all-time)
July 15 - BRO Robin Yount 3,000 hits (#4 all-time)
July 18 - SEA Willie McGee 1,000 runs (#60 all-time)
July 18 - LA Don Robinson 200 win (#19 all-time)
July 24 - TOR Ellis Burks 300 home runs (#43 all-time)
July 26 - CHI Eric Davis 1,000 RBIs (#48 all-time)
July 28 - WAS Ryne Sandberg 2,000 hits (#51 all-time)
ATL 3B Wade Boggs 8 mo
ATL SP John Smoltz 7 mo
DEN SP Bill Swift 5 wk
FLO RP Mike Henneman 13 mo
LA SP Jose Lima 11 mo
SEA SP Joey Hamilton 7 mo
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