Circuit Clouts
Home of United League • Purveyors of Fine  Fake Baseball Since 2003*

At the two-thirds mark of the season, the UL playoff race is crowded at the top, with seven teams clustered within two games of the President's Trophy and three more in the mix for four division pennants and two wildcard spots. The 10 contenders break down into four types: batting-heavy, pitching-heavy, balanced,

and overachivers. For the purposes of this analysis, let's call them Bashers, Hurlers, Balancers, and Reachers.

The Basher group includes Toronto, Manhattan, and Seattle—the league's top three offenses. Toronto's torrid homer pace slowed in July, and the Sailors of the Floe are on pace for a mere 268 home runs, 20 off the pace of the '77 Gray Sox. All three Bashers are in the bottom half in pitching, but the Rainiers have the slightly stronger staff heading into the final third, and their bullpen ranks fifth, which should help them in tight games down the stretch in a hyper-competitive Pacific Divison.

The Hurler group includes Washington, Chicago, and San Francisco. The Monuments were 19-9 in July and overtook the Maroons for first place in the Gulf Division. They boast the second-best pitching in the league, behind Cy Young candidate Bret Saberhagen, who at 15-5, 1.92 is on the inside track to nab two of three Triple Crown categories. With the second-best rotation and a top-tier defense, Washington has the advantage in the Hurler group.

The Balancers group includes Denver and St. Louis, the only clubs in the league in the top six in both runs and runs against. The Dark Reds would easily fit in the Hurler group, with the fewest runs allowed, and both the top rotation and top bullpen. But they also rank sixth in runs scored. St. Louis also arguably fits in its own category—Underachievers—with a Pythagorean/Babylonian score of -6, meaning they have won six fewer games than their run differential indicates (more on that in the St. Louis box below). Denver gets a slight edge, perhaps, because of their league-leading defense. As the only team in the top five in hitting, pitching, and defense, the 14ers are—in theory—the most slump-proof. However, the Peakers will be without the league's hottest closer in the final two months. Tim Burke (0.99 ERA, 17 SV) tore his meniscus on July 31 and is done for the year. Fortunately for Denver, his injury came on the day before the trade deadline...

The Reachers group includes Los Angeles and Boston, teams that by all appearances have overperformed to this point in the season. Boston has outperformed by four games, putting them in the fringe of contention, but signaled a rebuild with the trade of Dave Beard. L.A.'s +7 Babylonian coefficient suggests they are the most overperforming team in the league. However, the Outlaws recently won 12 straight, were the hottest team in the league in July (20-8), and added Dave Beard to their rotation. Advantage Los Angeles.

So what does all this mean? Well, there are ten teams vying for six playoff spots, so another way to look at it is by playoff probabilities, which break down into four tiers: Near-Locks (>80%), Solid Bets (69-77%), Outsiders (35-45%), and Longshots (>15%).

The Near-Locks are the #1 pitching and #1 batting teams, St. Louis and Toronto.

The Solid Bets are Seattle, Manhattan, Denver, and Washington.

The Outsiders are Los Angeles, Chicago, and Boston.

The Longshot is San Francisco.

Still, Iron Mike projects five teams finishing within two games at the top, so the playoff picture is likely to remain muddled and hazy until late September.  

 ​​​​

DET GM Holloway recently called an emergency press conference

at UL HQ in Denver, CO, to discuss what he termed the “lack of

funness” recently plaguing the League.  Holloway, against a

backdrop of Jade and Destiny doing their best 1960s go-go girl

imitation and many members from the cast of Rowan and Martin’s

Laugh-In, ranted:

“Mark Waller, that wahoo from Washington, started moving us down

the path of goodness by visiting and showing respect to Gene Larkin at a meet and greet.  The Commish himself continued the madness with an epic 10-mile hike through nature where he encountered a moose – and it wasn’t even Bob Moose!  It was a real goddamn moose!  Waller, who wasn’t happy with beginning this mess, then had to follow-up with a wholesome sleepover for his 10-year-old son; a sleepover facilitated by ChatGPT (whatever the hell that is), but it sounds like technology, and that must be stopped!  And just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, STL GM Reed shows up at the Takashi Murakami Exhibit in tails and top hat and begins educating people on the Bay of Fundy!  What kind of depravity is this?!!  We haven’t had a dick joke in months!  This will not do!  You shall not pass!  Where’s L.L.J. Cool J.?  God save the Queen, man!  After all I’ve done to further fun in this League!”

A visibly shaken Holloway then appeared to have a conniption fit before nearly passing out and had to be helped from the dais.  HAV GM and Special Assistant to GM Holloway, Lance Mueller, took Holloway’s place and fielded questions before concluding: “Of course, GM Holloway is very concerned about the current no fun trend and what that means for Grieve and his Merry Band, as well as for the overall morale of the League.  It does appear that ATL GM and Special UL Guardian of League Goodness Andy Chaney may be winning his self-proclaimed goal of eradicating all fun from the League.  But we firmly believe he’s winning just at this moment.” 

Mueller continued: “We are building a fighting force of extraordinary magnitude and implementing a two-tier approach aimed at quashing the goodness before it takes hold.  GM Holloway has our gratitude.  First, DET has amassed a large amount of 1990 draft picks, leaving DET is poised to bring into the League a bevy of players who may not be known for their baseball prowess but who are known for their off-field antics.  Second, DET is working to ensure that every rookie – regardless of team – receives a ‘Welcome to the UL!’ gift, complete with some magic pills from the UL’s corporate sponsor (EET), some magic beans from former ULer Dock Ellis, and gift certificates to the best men’s establishments in each UL city.”

Whoa!  Holloway is not messing around in his desire to have the UL mess around!  As Mueller was ending his remarks, a reporter jumped up and yelled “what about the rumors that one of the expansion teams will be helmed by a Cubs fan?”

At that, Mueller stopped, turned back to face the crowd and said “we don’t want to be known as the No Fun League, but hiring a Cubs fan?  That seems to be a bit extreme.  Those guys are nuts.”  As Mueller turned to exit, though, no one saw the slight smile that developed on his Cuban countenance.  I shudder at what this could mean.