Last update: August 28, 2025 by Team Program Lead 

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Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points (CTPs) are Critical Thresholds in Earth's Climate System where a small change can lead to large, often irreversible, changes in the system. 

• CTPs thresholds, when crossed, can result in significant impacts on ecosystems, weather patterns, and human societies. 

• Understanding and predicting these tipping points is crucial for effective climate action and Mitigation Efforts.

U.S. Climate-AI Research Clusters

529 Collaborative Institutions

The U.S. National AI Research Institutes, led by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), are strategic investments Behind AI Foundational Science and its use in Critical Sectors of Economy.

• They consist of 29 institutes that connect over 500 funded and collaborative institutions across the U.S. and around the world.

• Launched in 2020 and funded at about $20 million each over five years, these institutes represent one of the biggest public-private investments to date in AI research and development.

• Artificial Intelligence (AI) is built upon several foundational scientific principles, including logic, computation, and the study of the human mind. 

• Ancient philosophical inquiries into reasoning and knowledge laid the groundwork, while advancements in computer science, particularly in Machine Learning and Deep Learning, have driven its modern evolution.

• AI aims to create systems that can mimic human intelligence, enabling them to learn, reason, and solve problems.  

Climate Monitoring Observation Platforms

Observation Platforms for Climate Monitoring include satellites, fixed and mobile buoys, research vessels, autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), autonomous surface vehicles (ASVs) like Saildrones, aircraft, and radiosondes, which collect data on temperature, precipitation, air chemistry, cloud cover, wind speed, and ocean conditions from the surface to deep ocean levels. 

• These platforms gather data from diverse Earth environments—land, ocean, and atmosphere—to track climate change, understand its impacts, and inform forecasting and policy.

Land and Atmosphere

Satellites:

• • Provide a global view of Earth's surface and atmosphere, collecting multispectral imagery and thermal radiation data. 

Radiosondes:

• • Instruments attached to balloons that measure atmospheric conditions like pressure, temperature, and humidity as they ascend. 

Aircraft:

• • Used to collect weather data over both land and sea. 

Autonomous Surface Observation Systems (ASOS):

• • Automated instruments at airports that provide key surface weather observations. 

Ocean

Buoys: 

• • Floating or moored platforms that collect data on ocean temperature, surface conditions, and currents. 

Argo Floats:

• • Autonomous floats that dive to measure ocean temperature and salinity, resurfacing to transmit data to satellites. 

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs):

• • Robotic devices like gliders that measure ocean heat, salinity, and other variables at various depths. 

Autonomous Surface Vehicles (ASVs):

• • Remotely operated vehicles, such as Saildrones, that collect data on air and ocean conditions for extended periods. 

Research Vessels:

• • Ships equipped with instruments to gather data on a global scale, including data from ships equipped with automated upper-air sounding facilities. 

Global Networks and Data Centers

Global Observing Systems Information Center (GOSIC):

• • A data and information hub, hosted by NOAA, that facilitates access to data from various climate observation networks worldwide. 

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration):

• • Manages and operates many of these platforms, with organizations like the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) responsible for data collection and management.

Climate Monitoring Observation Platforms 

Diverse Observation Platforms, from satellites to citizen scientists, collect critical data that underpins global climate monitoring and research. 

• Key Global Initiatives like the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) coordinate these efforts to ensure comprehensive data is available to assess and address climate change. 

Satellite and Airborne Platforms

These platforms offer a global and consistent view of the Earth's atmosphere, land, and oceans. They are essential for monitoring climate change across vast areas and for creating long-term data records. 

• Geostationary satellites: Orbit the Earth at the same speed as its rotation, allowing them to continuously monitor a single location. This provides frequent updates on cloud patterns and other atmospheric variables over specific regions.

• Polar-orbiting satellites: Orbit at a lower altitude, passing over the north and south poles. While they revisit areas less often, their lower altitude allows for higher-resolution images and more detailed data for global coverage.

• Autonomous aerial vehicles (drones and planes): Gather detailed atmospheric and surface measurements over specific areas, with greater frequency than satellites.

• Specialized satellite systems: Focus on specific variables, such as the Carbon Mapper constellation, which tracks methane and carbon dioxide emissions from major sources with high spatial resolution. 

Land-based platforms

Networks of automated and manual stations on land provide long-term, high-quality reference data for specific locations. 

• Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS): An automated network of stations, often located at airports, that provides continuous readings of temperature, precipitation, wind, and other variables.

• Climate Reference Networks (CRNs): Networks like the U.S. Climate Reference Network consist of stations in remote, stable locations to measure long-term climate trends without local disturbances.

• Volunteer observation programs: The National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) uses a network of volunteers to collect daily measurements of temperature and precipitation, providing a valuable long-term data record.

• Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN): A network of automated data collection sites across the U.S. that specifically monitors soil moisture, temperature, and other related variables. 

Ocean-based platforms

To monitor ocean circulation, chemistry, and heat, a variety of seaborne platforms collect data from the surface to the deep ocean. 

• Argo floats: An array of over 3,600 autonomous floats that drift with ocean currents and collect profiles of temperature and salinity from the surface down to 2,000 meters. The data is freely available for use in climate models.

• Surface drifters: These buoys drift with surface currents, collecting and transmitting real-time data on atmospheric pressure, sea surface temperature, and ocean currents.

• Moored buoys: Anchored to the seafloor, these buoys collect long-term climate data at specific locations. The TAO, TRITON, PIRATA, and RAMA programs operate large networks of these buoys in the tropical oceans.

• Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS): Commercial ships voluntarily collect and report meteorological and oceanographic data, such as sea surface temperature and wave height, to supplement automated networks. 

Citizen Science Platforms

These platforms engage volunteers in scientific research, expanding the scale and scope of data collection and promoting public engagement with climate change. 

• Phenology projects: Programs like Nature's Notebook and Project BudBurst train volunteers to track the timing of seasonal events in plants and animals. The resulting data helps monitor the ecological impacts of climate change.

• iNaturalist: This app allows users to document observations of biodiversity. The collected data is used by scientists to monitor the distribution and abundance of species in response to climate change.

• Air quality monitors: Citizen science projects, such as Europe's CompAir, use easy-to-use sensors to collect air quality data, which volunteers can use to influence policy decisions. 

Data and analysis platforms

Beyond the collection of data, numerous platforms aggregate, process, and analyze climate data to make it accessible to researchers and policymakers. 

• National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI): NOAA's NCEI maintains one of the world's largest archives of weather and climate data, collected from various land, marine, and satellite platforms.

• Global Climate Observing System (GCOS): Co-sponsored by international bodies, GCOS assesses the status of global observations and defines the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) that need to be monitored to track Earth's climate.

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): While not an observation platform itself, the IPCC synthesizes data from scientific and monitoring bodies worldwide, providing comprehensive assessments of climate change for policymakers.

DARPA

The DARPA, U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, AI-assisted Climate Tipping-point Modeling (ACTM) Program focuses on using AI and Machine Learning to improve our understanding and prediction of climate tipping points, which are critical thresholds that, when crossed, can lead to rapid and potentially irreversible changes in the Earth's climate system.

• The ACTM program aims to develop advanced AI Models that can better capture the complex interactions within the climate system and identify potential tipping points, along with their associated risks and potential cascading effects. 

Key Aspects of ACTM Program

AI-enhanced modeling:

• • The program seeks to integrate AI/ML Models with traditional physics-based climate models to create hybrid models that can better represent complex, interconnected processes and capture missing physical, chemical, or biological factors. 

Tipping Point Identification:

• A core goal is to identify tipping points, their thresholds, and the timeframes within which they might occur, with a focus on sudden and drastic changes. 

Causal Inference and Forecasting:

• The program aims to not only predict tipping points but also understand the causal factors driving them and improve the accuracy of forecasts. 

Data assimilation and high-value targets:

• ACTM seeks to identify high-value data collection targets that can help understand complex climate systems and track early warning signals of tipping points. 

Decision support:

• The program's findings are intended to inform decision-making by providing policymakers with a better understanding of the risks associated with climate tipping points and potential mitigation strategies. 

Addressing national security concerns:

• DARPA's involvement highlights the potential national security implications of climate change, particularly the risk of sudden and irreversible changes to key Earth systems. 

In essence, the ACTM program aims to leverage the power of AI to provide a more robust and timely understanding of climate tipping points, enabling better preparedness and potentially mitigating the most severe consequences of climate change, according to the program manager at DARPA. 

Climate Tipping-point Modeling

(ACTM)

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)'s AI-assisted Climate Tipping-point Modeling (ACTM) Program leverages Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to address a significant challenge in climate change: 

Understanding and Predicting Climate Tipping Points

ACTM Program

The ACTM program focuses on critical thresholds in the Earth's climate system where crossing a certain point can trigger abrupt and potentially irreversible, large-scale changes. 

• These "tipping points" can lead to new equilibrium states with significant impacts. Traditional climate models have limitations in capturing complex Earth system processes and are computationally intensive, making it difficult to gain actionable insights about sudden tipping points. 

• ACTM aims to overcome these limitations by developing hybrid AI models that combine AI/ML techniques with conventional physics-based climate models. 

• The program's goals include improving the representation of missing processes, enhancing computational efficiency for exploring decadal-scale effects, and developing methods for data assimilation. DARPA's involvement highlights the recognition of climate change and tipping points as potential threats to global stability and DoD operations. 

Examples of ACTM's Approach

ACTM Methodologies are being applied to improve the understanding and prediction of potential disruptions, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). 

• Researchers are also developing hybrid AI frameworks to capture the effects of cloud properties on climate and inform resilience planning. The program is also developing hybrid AI models to identify early warning signals for tipping points and using AI algorithms to analyze Solar Climate Intervention (SCI) scenarios, including risks and uncertainties. 

U.S. Government Source URLs

NASA Airborne Science Program

Scanning High-Resolution Interferometer Sounder

NOAA Climate Applications of High Resolution Infrared Sounders 

DARPA's ACTM Program

DARPA's AI Forward Initiative

NOAA's Center for Artificial Intelligence (NCAI)

NASA's Advanced Data Analytics Platform (ADAPT) & AI/ML

Department of Energy's AI Initiatives: 

Department of Energy's Policy AI & Clean Energy

Note: These resources provide valuable insights, but climate change research is ongoing, with government agencies continuously working to improve understanding and prediction capabilities, including exploring the broader implications of AI on climate.